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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Scattered lightning will be possible today and this evening. A tiny chance tomorrow. A better chance Saturday night into Monday. I will monitor Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms during the summer months can occasionally produce isolated pockets of downburst wind.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving heavy thunderstorms could briefly cause some ponding of water on roadways and in ditches.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Possible. Heat index values could briefly approach or top 100 degrees Saturday and especially Sunday. Sunday will be highly depending on cloud cover.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Wednesday, June 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times. A chance of thunderstorms. Once again, mainly over southeast Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Brief downpours. Gusty wind in some storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Once again, mainly over southeast Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Mainly during the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Brief downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:28 AM
Moonset: 11:18 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:28 AM
Moonset: 11:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, June 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Most likely dry. If a thunderstorm forms, then it would be isolated.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:28 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, June 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of late night thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly after midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 11:26 AM
Moonset: 12:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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- Warm temperatures.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
- Monitoring the chance for MCS’s.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days!
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Warm Weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Good day, everyone.
There were scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms in the region yesterday afternoon and evening. Some locations picked up more than an inch of rain!
The storms were associated with the slow moving upper level low that we have been talking about over the last few days.
That systems continues to spiral just to our east. It will shift slightly westward today.
We will once again have a chance of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the east northeast. Movement will be west southwest. Again, in spiral bands.
Some cold air funnels will be possible. These are typical harmless and rarely touch down. They make for cool photos!
Some of the rain will be heavy. Lightning will be a concern for those outside. Some of the storms could produce brief 30 to 40 mph wind gusts.
Many areas will remain dry today. A few locations will pick up a quick 0.25″ to 1.00″ of rain. If storms train over the same area then heavier totals are likely.
This is much needed rainfall, of course. We will take what we can get.
The upper level low will shift out of the region tomorrow. That leaves us with tiny thunderstorm chances over mainly Kentucky and Tennessee tomorrow afternoon.
Tiny chances Friday and Saturday, as well.
I am tracking a potential MCS or two this weekend. That is the big weather story.
MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They are responsible for most of our summer rainfall totals. They can also produce damaging wind, frequent lightning, hail, and occasionally brief tornadoes.
MCS’s are necessary evils. As they say.
The problem with forecasting MCS’s is that they are notoriously difficult to predict. Even within 12 to 24 hours they can be difficult to predict track and intensity.
I am confident that an MCS will form Saturday night/Sunday and perhaps Sunday/Sunday night.
It will track southeast out of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. The exact track is uncertain.
This could bring widespread beneficial rain to portions of the corn-belt. Will it be our region is the question.
We are certainly in the running for it.
Monitor updates moving forward. I will need to monitor guidance each day leading up to Saturday night into Sunday night/Monday.
It will be quite hot Saturday with highs in the 90s. Heat index values may jump to 100 or above Saturday afternoon and evening. It will feel oppressive outside.
We have been blessed with lower dew points lately. That has kept our heat index values lower.
Sunday’s forecast heat index will be high if we have sunshine. Sunday’s heat index will depend on the track of the MCS. If we have clouds and precipitation, then the heat index won’t be as big of a concern.
If the MCS misses us and we have sunshine, then heat index values will be high.
Of note, the operational GFS model has several thunderstorm complexes next week with heavy rain in our region. We will need to monitor the pattern.
If these MCS’s do occur, then some locations will exceed three inches of rain. Widespread 0.5″ to 1.50″. Let us just hope we will be in on some of the rain action.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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