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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday Night – Increasing clouds from the northwest. A chance for thunderstorms late over southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Not sure the storms can make it into southeast Missouri. Better chances for parts of southern IL into northwest Kentucky. Some storms could be heavy with gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. Warm and muggy. Lows in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% north and northeast
What impact is expected? Lightning and gusty winds.
Sunday – A mix of sun and clouds. Quite a few clouds coming in from the north. A chance for thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. A few storms could be strong over southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Hot and humid. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Actual temperatures in the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Chance of precipitation will be 40% north and 20% south. If there is more sun and the atmosphere becomes more unstable then rain chances will need to be increased.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Storms could form over parts of our area on Sunday afternoon and evening.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be strong with high winds and hail.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-40% chance for a storm. Mainly this would be over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees. Possibly some severe storms. The severe weather threat is conditional on the sun coming out on Sunday afternoon and the atmosphere becoming unstable.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for some thunderstorms, especially over parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Further north and east you go…better chances for storms. Otherwise, warm and muggy. Lows in the 70’s. South winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? A few strong storms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% over our northern and northeastern counties.
What impact is expected? If storms occur they would produce heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Monday – Partly cloudy. A few scattered storms possible over our northern counties in southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Hot and muggy. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Actual temperatures will into the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% over our northern and northeastern counties. Less than 10% elsewhere.
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for some storms over our far northern and northeastern counties. Otherwise, warm and muggy. Lows in the 70’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds…where storms occur (if they occur).
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and hot. A 20% chance for a thunderstorm. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Highs will be well into the 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Heat concerns. Heat index values will be above 100 degrees. If a storm pops up then heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. The big story over the coming 4-5 days will be a short heat wave.
2. A few thunderstorm chances in the mix
3. River flooding is a concern for some of our counties
4. An unsettled pattern develops by Thursday into next week (see extended discussion below)
5. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Flooding is a concern for rivers.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Storm chances increase late tonight over parts of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Storms will be moving in from the St Louis area.
Bill swept through the region on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall totals ranged from 1-3″ over most locations with pockets of 3-6 inches. A few spots picked up less (some counties in western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee). Several tornadoes touched down over southern Illinois and northwest Tennessee. They were short lived, but did produce damage. I doubt we really ever know how many touched down. Several were in rural areas, based on radar returns. Perhaps some tree damage. (thank you, by the way, for all the storm reports…they were helpful in pinning down the storms of most interest)
If you were with me during the live-cast updates on Facebook then you would have been on top of the situation. If you have Facebook then make sure you stop by the weather page. I usually do live event coverage with play by play action on what is happening and what is about to happen.
Let’s look at the rainfall from Bill. This is mainly from Thursday and Friday.
Scale is on the left. Some of these colors went off the chart. Parts of southern Illinois had more than 7″ of rain. I picked up more than 3″ at the Weather Observatory in Massac County. Notice the banding? There were spots in western Kentucky that picked up less than 0.50″ of rain. Meanwhile, just a few miles away the bands produced 1-3″ of rain. Tropical storms are a bit awkward like that.
Let’s pull out a bit more and look at the rainfall totals on a larger scale. This is the 1 day rainfall total from 7 am on Friday until 7 am on Saturday. It misses some of the rain before 7 am. Image is from weatherbell.com and click the image for a larger view.
National view of Bill’s path. You can see from Texas into the Ohio Valley. This is the 7 day rainfall totals. Some areas in our region have picked up more than 10″ of rain over the past 7-10 days.
The big story this week will be the hot and humid weather. A short heat wave will move into our region. A ridge of high pressure will build in from the southwest and southeast. If you have been reading my summer forecast you will know that when the ridge of high pressure builds into our region it means hot hot hot.
When the trough builds in from the north and west it means cooler, more clouds, and thunderstorms.
The ridge will mostly win out over the coming days.
I say mostly because we will have a cold front just to our north. The front will occasionally sag southward. When the front sags southward it will pop a few thunderstorms. This will mainly be over our northern counties of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Occasionally these storms could dip a bit further south and west. I will need to closely monitor the placement of the front.
The first chance for storms will arrive on Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. A complex of storms (MCS) will be weakening as it moves into our region Sunday morning. We don’t have to worry about that MCS. But, it will leave a boundary. The boundary is where additional storms could form.
We could see severe storms, BUT
1. Morning clouds. How much cloud cover will we have in our region tomorrow morning into the early afternoon? Cloud cover can kill CAPE. CAPE is energy. More sun = more CAPE. Keep this in mind.
2. Where will the boundary be placed? How far south will it extend? Good question. I am thinking somewhere across southern Illinois into northern Kentucky. That means the best chances for storms will be north vs south. Let’s draw a line From around Carbondale, Illinois into northwest Kentucky. North of there a decent shot at some storms. South of there…not as confident. Keep this in mind.
Any storms that form, assuming we reach maximum energy, could produce damaging winds and hail. Severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out on Sunday. Low confidence. I will be on the Facebook page updating.
Let’s look at the NAM model and how it tracks these storms.
These images are from weatherbell.com
First…the MCS can be viewed on this image for later on Saturday evening. See it way north of our region?
Now, watch it dramatically weaken as it moves into our region Sunday morning. Poof it is gone.
Now watch what happens on Sunday afternoon, in the heat of the day. Notice the placement of the storms.
Moving later into Sunday afternoon and evening. Big storms on the NAM model.
Speaking of CAPE. CAPE is basically energy. This time of the year we can have some BIG CAPE numbers. When you start seeing 3000 and 4000 CAPE then you need to keep an eye on the weather forecast.
CAPE tomorrow could reach 4500 if the sun stays out. Low confidence on Sunday afternoons forecast. Keep that in mind. Image from Hazwx.com
Storm motion will be from the northwest towards the southeast and east.
Keep this in mind. There could be a few storms over the coming days. If a storm pops up, in this kind of heat, then you can expect a lot of lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.
Another disturbance nears our region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Once again, low confidence on placement of some storm chances. But, better north vs south. I do know that.
Let’s look at those high temperature maps. We should be within a few degrees of these numbers. Keep in mind that the heat index will be above 100 degrees. It will feel hotter. The air will be oppressive at times.
Sunday high temperatures
Monday high temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
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This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The big news in the long range will be the much anticipated cool down towards the end of June into the first part of July.
2. Unsettled weather later this week into early next week?
For over a month now I have been talking about the potential of below normal temperatures as we enter July. The data is showing that happening. But, keep in mind…below normal temperatures does not mean cool weather. It means that it won’t be as hot. It is going to be July after all!
A cold front will move into our area on Thursday and Friday. The front will advance southward from northern Illinois and Indiana. Once the front sags into our region it might stall out for a few days. If this happens then repeated thunderstorm chances will find themselves into our forecast.
The first round of storms might occur Thursday night into Friday. Additional rounds after that.
Remember how I have talked about MCS’s? Thunderstorm complexes that occur when upper level winds are from the northwest. These large areas of thunderstorms can produce a lot of rain in a short amount of time.
What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
We may have to deal with a few MCS’s over the coming 2 week period. Monitor updates. Sometimes they can also produce severe weather.
Another item of interest will be the fronts placement on Monday into Thursday. If it sags ever so slightly southward then I will need to increase thunderstorm chances over parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Keep this in mind. I have lower than normal confidence on rain chances this week in those areas.
Let’s look at the northwest flow on the GFS model maps.
This first map is for June 29th. You can see the jet stream winds diving southeast. This is called a NW flow. The wind flow aloft is from the northwest. When this happen we experience better chances for strong thunderstorms. MCS systems. Thunderstorm complexes.
These maps are from wright-weather.com
The colors represent wind speeds. Some strong winds aloft.
Moving ahead to Tuesday. The northwest flow continues. See the arrows I drew on the map. The winds are diving into our region from the northwest. A strong trough over the region and eastern United States.
Then by July 2nd.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Some storms could pop up on Sunday afternoon and evening. Best chance would be over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Not sure how far south the concern will drift. Monitor updates on Sunday.
Most of Monday into Wednesday will remain dry for the region. But, again…the frontal boundary will be near central Illinois into southern Indiana. Storms will fire along and north of that boundary each day and night. If the front sags south then storm chances would increase over parts of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Best advice, monitor updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is THREE for southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. North and east of a line from Carbondale towards northwest Kentucky. Low confidence
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms could become severe IF they develop. big question on development Sunday.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. A few gusty storms can’t be ruled out over our northern and northeastern counties.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms possible over parts of our region. Mostly northern counties and northeastern counties. Monitor updates.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Might have some storms in the region, monitor updates.
Some storms possible on Sunday into Sunday night. Low confidence on this happening. If storms do pop up then they could be strong or even severe.
The main concern will be heat index values over the coming week. Expect 100+ on Sunday into Thursday. If you have to be outside then use common sense, as always. Drink a lot of fluids. I don’t need to tell you this.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – how hot will temperatures be this coming week. Can someone reach 95? 98? Widespread hot temperatures will occur. Perhaps someone will reach the upper 90’s. The wet ground conditions might shave a few degrees off the highs. That just means it will feel even muggier. Oppressive at times. Not very pleasant.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
