We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
Check out our sponsors! There are more on the right side bar of the page, as well. Be sure and let them know that you appreciate their sponsorship of the WeatherTalk daily weather bulletin.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday Night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain likely. Flash flooding or flooding possible in areas that experience the heaviest rain. Gusty winds from the south/southeast at 10-25 mph. Higher gusts likely. Winds becoming southwest late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes…you will have issues.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe weather possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. Flooding possible.
Saturday – A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms early in the day. Most of the day may end up dry. Some good news. It will be quite warm and muggy. Highs in the 80’s. Gusty winds from the west/southwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be mostly dry
Is severe weather expected? No.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early and 20% late
What impact is expected? No additional impacts. Flood waters may continue to rise in some areas.
Saturday Night – Decreasing cloudiness. A small chance for an evening lingering shower. Lows will be in the lower 70’s. West winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay.
Is severe weather expected? No.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No impact.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and warm. A 20% chance for a thunderstorm. Some cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Highs around 90 degrees. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? If a storm pops up then lightning would be the main concern.
Sunday Night – Partly Cloudy. A chance for a few storms over our far northern and northeastern counties. Low confidence on this happening. Not sure how far south the boundary will be placed. Warm. Lows in the 70’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No…storms should be later in the night…if they occur.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Lightning and gusty winds…where storms occur (if they occur).
Heat wave much of next week.
We may break down the heat wave by Friday as a cold front attempts to advance from the north.
I am still calling for cooler than normal temperatures for the very end of June into first part of July. Heavy rain also possible during that time frame.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill will move through the region over the coming 24 hours.
2. Another complex of storms on Sunday night?
3. Heat wave next week in our region. Temperatures well into the 90’s. Will it break by Friday with a cold front coming in from the north?
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Well, obviously the big story is Bill. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are moving into the region. Heavy rain will accompany the system. If you are a regular blog reader then you will know that I started talking about this weather pattern back on June 1st. Sustained high PWAT values and tropical influences from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.
We have been discussing Bill, in depth, for the past few days. Hopefully you have kept up with the blog! If not then you are missing out on a lot of great weather talk. Not to mention a long heads up about incoming weather events.
Flash flooding is a concern tonight into early Saturday morning. Tropical systems typically produce very heavy rain at night. This can cause dangerous flooding of roadways. If you come upon a flooded roadway then consider finding another route. Every year people die attempting to cross flooded roadways.
The latest data skirts this system out of here by early morning. Hopefully most of Saturday will be dry for my forecast counties. Rain will exit last over our eastern counties, keep that in mind.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
The rain from this system should exit on Saturday morning. It is moving a little faster now. This is good news, of course. The faster it moves the quicker we can bring an end to the rain.
Sunday should be mostly dry. There is a 20% chance for a few storms. I added this after looking at the new data. Low confidence.
By Sunday night another system will move in from the north and northwest. This will be a complex of thunderstorms that is forecast to form along a disturbance. Lower than normal confidence on this system.
Our first real heat wave will develop next week. See the extended forecast discussion below.
Watches and warnings map – click here
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. A thunderstorm complex on Sunday night and Monday morning?
2. A heat wave will develop next week
I will be watching a disturbance on Sunday afternoon and night that should spark a complex of storms to our northwest and north. This complex of storms will slide south and southeast on Sunday night into Monday morning. Confidence is low as to how far south and east this system will survive.
Gusty winds and heavy rain will accompany the complex. This on top of recent heavy rainfall could be a problem.
The bad news is that a real heat wave will develop next week. From Tuesday into at least Thursday our region will experience numerous middle 90’s for daytime highs. High humidity levels, as well. It won’t feel very nice outside.
A cold front will stall out near our region (northeast counties) on Monday into Wednesday. There could be several periods of thunderstorms near the front. How far southwest the front will sag is questionable. If it is further southwest than expected then thunderstorm chances will have to be introduced over a larger part of our region.
Thunderstorms may return by Friday as a new cold front drops into our region from the north. This front may stall out in our region over the weekend.
Longer range models continue to develop a trough over our region towards the end of the month. If this happens then a return to a northwest flow will occur. This would bring below normal temperatures and frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern may continue into July.
Finally the analog models are starting to pick up on the idea of cooler than normal weather towards the very end of the month into first part of July. Cooler is a relative term this time of the year. Keep that in mind.
The blue indicates where temperatures MIGHT end up below normal around the first part of July. We will see if that happens. 🙂
Also of concern could be a heavy rain pattern as we enter July. Frequent thunderstorm complexes moving in from the northwest and north.
We will see how it plays out.
The big news in the long range, for now, is the heat wave.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 90’s
Wednesday middle to upper 90’s
Thursday middle to upper 90’s
Friday 90’s BUT, a cold front may attempt to dive in from the north. If this happens then thunderstorms would be possible.
Overnight lows on some nights will only dip into the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Summer weather.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Don’t forget to support our Weather Talk sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
The remnants of Bill will produce heavy rain on Friday night into early Saturday morning. Rainfall totals along its path of 1-3″ are likely. Pockets of 3-6″ possible. Isolated higher totals can’t be ruled out.
Low confidence on additional precipitation Sunday into Tuesday. I will update further on Saturday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO for Friday into Saturday morning.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Isolated tornado risk. Isolated damaging wind gust possible.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Small chance for storms..
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Morning storms possible. Low confidence.
Obviously concerns for Friday night into Saturday will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. The system will pull through our region tonight into Saturday morning. Very heavy rain will occur along its path. Flash flooding is likely across parts of our region.
The heaviest rains with tropical systems can occur at night. Keep this in mind. Avoid flooded roadways.
Rainfall totals in excess of 4″ will likely occur in some counties.
Rivers will be on the rise. Especially true for the Mississippi River. See your local river stage forecasts for the most up to date information on expected crest levels. This will be a top 10 flood (if not a top 5 flood) for some areas along the Mississippi River.
Gusty winds with the remnants of Bill.
One last concern will be an isolated tornado risk. Tropical systems have a lot of shear with them. Thus, a small risk for short lived tornadoes.
Concerns next week will center around a heat wave.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild will deal with the long range. The heat wave next week. Can someone reach 100 degrees? Right now the odds appear low. However, upper 90’s are possible. The wet ground could cause temperatures to be a few degrees lower, but either way…hot weather is going to occur from Tuesday of next week into the end of the work week.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
