Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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I have a live stream running now (I am learning how to use the software).

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Click the subscribe button (it is a free subscribe button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 2nd through June 9th

Current risk:  NOT AT THIS TIME.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   No tornado concerns at this time.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible Wednesday through Sunday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.  Organized severe weather appears unlikely.  I can’t rule out some low-end risks later this week.  The signal isn’t strong for severe storms, but there may be a few days with a low-end marginal risk.  I will keep an eye on it.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into the weekend.  Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  This could result in brief flooding issues.  Ditches overflowing, commonly flooded roadways, and so on.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  UNLIKELY.  A few reporting stations could reach 90 or above today, tomorrow, and Wednesday.  Most areas will remain just below 90 degrees.    

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Well above-average temperatures are expected today through Wednesday.  Some locations could hit 90 degrees.
•   Haze today from Canadian wildfires.
•   Unsettled weather Wednesday into the weekend.
•   On and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

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Good morning, everyone.

I hope you had a nice weekend!  The weather was great.

The haze you saw in the sky was caused by the massive Canadian wildfires.  The smoke traveled southward into our region.

You can see it here on the overnight satellite view.  This has been happening in our region for the last few years.

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Here is the latest smoke outlook for today and tomorrow.  You can see the smoke moving southward.

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I don’t have any weather concerns today through Tuesday night.

Some smoky haze today.  Warm.

The smoke is expected to clear tomorrow as high pressure builds into the region.

Temperatures are expected to be four to eight degrees above average from today through Wednesday.  Some reporting stations could even hit 90 degrees!  That will be the warmest day of the year, thus far, for many.

I can’t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Let’s look at those rain probabilities.  This is from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday, mostly after midnight.  Most of the region will remain dry through Wednesday morning.

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Increasingly unsettled weather begins on Wednesday.

A cold front will stall over our region.  Becoming a stationary front.

That front will then become the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It won’t rain all the time, of course.  However, there will be intermittent chances from Wednesday into the weekend.

The weekend forecast will be highly dependent on how quickly the front pushes southward or dissipates.  If it speeds up a bit, then perhaps we can lower rain chances Saturday and Sunday.  For now, however, we have decent chances of precipitation Friday through Sunday.

If you have weekend plans, then have a plan B.  Then, if it rains, you will be prepared.

Let’s look at the latest rain probability graphics.  This will give you a decent idea of what we are looking at for each twelve-hour period (7 AM to 7 PM and 7 PM to 7 AM).

These graphics display the rain probability (% chances)

Wednesday

Wednesday night

Thursday

Thursday night

Friday

Friday night

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday

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Notice how chances peak during the day and wane a bit at night.  That is because of the heat of the day.  Heat makes the atmosphere increasingly unstable.  Thus, peak chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours.

Rainfall totals will vary wildly.

During the summer months, one county could have two to three inches of rain.  A neighboring county could remain dry.  If you have lived in this area for any length of time, then you will know this.

If thunderstorms train over the same area, then this will enhance rainfall totals.

Generally, rainfall totals Wednesday through Sunday will range from 1.00″ to 2.00″.  Then there will be pockets of two to three inches or more of rain.  Not the best news for farmers.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.  Double click to enlarge this graphic.

At one time, this week looked a bit drier.  We seem to be unable to catch a break.  It has been an active spring.

Again, the Saturday and Sunday forecast will be highly dependent on the speed of the cold front.  If it stalls, then rain will linger through the entire weekend.

Hurricane season began yesterday.

No tropical concerns at this time.  This is the seven day tropical outlook.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model.  This is for next week’s system.

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EC model.  This is for next week’s system.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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