Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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June 2, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.  A chance of  showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° /  South IL 74° to 78°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°  /  West KY 74° to 78° /  NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the:   North northwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds.  Patchy fog.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58°  /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 54° to 56°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58°  /  West KY 54° to 58° /  NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the:  North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset:  11:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 3, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82°  /  SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 80° /  South IL 76° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82°  /  West KY 80° to 84° /  NW TN 80° to 82°
Winds will be from the:  North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58°  /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 54° to 58°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58°  /  West KY 54° to 58° /  NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 8:46 AM
Moonset:  11:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 4, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°  /  SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° /  South IL 80° to 82°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84°  /  West KY 80° to 84° /  NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the:   Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62°  /  SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° /  South IL 60° to 62°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62°  /  West KY 60° to 62° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the:  South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset:  -:– PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 5, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85°  /  SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° /  South IL 82° to 85°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85°  /  West KY 82° to 85° /  NW TN 82° to 85°
Winds will be from the:   South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:13 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°  /  SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° /  South IL 60° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°  /  West KY 60° to 64° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:46 AM
Moonset:  12:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 6, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84°  /  SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° /  South IL 82° to 84°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84°  /  West KY 82° to 84° /  NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the:   South southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset:  8:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°  /  SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° /  South IL 64° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°  /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:47 AM
Moonset:  1:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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June 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84°  /  SE MO 82° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° /  South IL 82° to 84°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84°  /  West KY 82° to 84° /  NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the:   South southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset:  8:14 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°  /  SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° /  South IL 64° to 68°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°  /  West KY 64° to 68° /  NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:49 PM
Moonset:  1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through June 5th:   A few storms could be severe next week.  There is not a well defined time period for severe weather.  The general pattern, however, would favor some damaging wind and perhaps hail.  Multiple rounds of storms are possible next week.  Monitor updates.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

Something new the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS office is doing.

Thursday

A cold front is sagging through the region.

This front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region yesterday and last night.  Some places picked up nearly four inches of rain!  Other locations received no measurable rain.

Rain totals varied greatly.

Double click the image to enlarge it.  I randomly chose some locations.

A few reports of wind damage were received, as well.  Plenty of lightning and some amazing shelf cloud photographs.

I took this photograph Wednesday evening at the Weather Observatory.  Incoming thunderstorms.  A shelf cloud.

Double click on the photograph for a full view.

This is what that looked like on radar (before moving into Massac County, IL).

A couple more photographs that were sent to me.

Melinda Coates took this photo below.  Looking towards Clinton, Kentucky.

Cunningham, Kentucky.   Angie Gilbert took this photograph.

What is a shelf cloud?

Those storms have pushed out of the region.

There are a couple of showers and thunderstorms left in the region this morning.  Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee.  This precipitation will end this morning.

We will have lingering clouds.  It will be cooler today, as well.

High pressure will push into the region tonight and tomorrow.

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Friday through Saturday evening

Dry conditions Friday through Saturday evening.  No weather concerns.  Nice temperatures.  Not bad for early June.

No wind concerns Friday or Saturday.  Nice camping and fishing weather.

Friday high temperatures

Saturday high temperatures

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Saturday night through Thursday

An active period of weather appears to be developing next week.  Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.  MCS season is here.  MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System.

MCS’s are typical during the summer months.  They are large complexes of thunderstorms that typically form during the afternoon and evening hours.  They can last well into the night.  They typically weaken during the early morning hours.

MCS’s can track hundreds of miles and produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and occasionally severe weather.

They are usually quite impressive on both radar and satellite.

Here is one this morning well to our south/southwest.  This one is not moving in our direction.

IR satellite view of this morning’s MCS.

MCS’s can bring severe weather to our region.  Not all MCS’s produce severe weather.  Some just produce locally heavy rain and lightning.  If conditions are right, however, they can produce severe weather.

Both the GFS and EC long-range models are showing multiple disturbances moving west to east across our region next week.  I will need to fine-tune the time period of greater precipitation chances.  For now, I have broad-brushed the Monday through Wednesday time period with 40% rain probabilities.  This will need adjusting as confidence increases in each rain event.   It won’t rain all of the time, of course.

We also have low-end shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday night through Sunday night.

Rain totals are going to vary GREATLY next week.  Just like our recent event, some locations could receive several inches of rain.  Other locations won’t receive nearly as much.  It will all come down to the track of each disturbance.

Here is what the WPC/NOAA is forecasting for rain totals next week.  Broad-brushed.  Again, totals will vary greatly.

Monitor updates moving forward.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers June 2nd through June 8th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 9th through June 15th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  85 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers June 14th through June 27th
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Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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