June 2, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The LIVE severe weather blog has been posted. We may have a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Confidence, however, is low. Click here for the severe weather blog post.

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through Monday. Most numerous today through tonight. Scattered Thursday. Becoming isolated Thursday night through Saturday night. Scattered Sunday into Tuesday. I will monitor Wednesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce 50 mph wind gusts and dime size hail Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Otherwise, the risk of severe weather is low. The LIVE severe weather blog has been posted. We may have a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Confidence, however, is low. Click here for the severe weather blog post.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Thunderstorms could produce some local downpours this week. Odds are that flash flooding won’t be a significant concern. If thunderstorms train over the same areas, then a few spots could have issues for short periods of time. Some areas will top three inches of rain before all is said and done. Some already have.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence

The LIVE severe weather blog has been posted. We may have a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Confidence, however, is low. Click here for the severe weather blog post.
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler where clouds are thicker and rain develops. Warmer, elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Becoming scattered as you move further east.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 68° to 74° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Light east wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor the radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 11:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. We could see some sunshine breaking through as the day wears on. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous. On and off chances throughout the day.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce gusty wind and nickel size hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:36AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some clearing west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Greater coverage east of the Mississippi River vs west.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 1:50 AM
Moonset: 1:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

June 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 2:17 AM
Moonset: 2:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny with an isolated morning shower. A thunderstorm will be possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind 4 to 8 mph. Variable in direction.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadway and lightning. Most of the area should be dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:42 AM
Moonset: 2:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Warm. A bit more humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radar
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of an early evening thunderstorm. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before 7 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 3:06 AM
Moonset: 3:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the afternoon (heat of the day)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. A bit more humid. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible. Typical June weather.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:30 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:56 AM
Moonset: 5:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 6th: A few storms could be severe this afternoon and evening. The LIVE severe weather blog has been posted. We may have a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Confidence, however, is low. Click here for the severe weather blog post.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday into Thursday. A few of the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty wind.

Weather Discussion

1. Heavy rain has fallen over portions of the region over the past 24 hours.
2. Monitoring today’s severe weather risk.
3. Muggier weather is on the way.
4. Watching the potential of heavy rain next week with very high PWAT values.

The LIVE severe weather blog has been posted. We may have a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Confidence, however, is low. Click here for the severe weather blog post.

Let’s take a look back at May. It was actually dry over much of the region. Paducah received above average rainfall. The rest of the reporting stations were below the seasonal norms.

A series of upper level disturbances will push across the region today through Thursday. Each one of these systems will produce shower and thunderstorm activity.

You can see the early morning radars already have widespread rain across portions of our region. This will push east/northeast.

There should be a lull today with the precipitation moving out of the region. Then, we have to monitor for thunderstorm develop this afternoon.

There is a conditional risk of severe weather. What does conditional means? It means that clouds need to clear out some and we have some surface heating. This will help build CAPE. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorm to tap into.

Here was the 6 AM radar shot. You can see there was rain over a good chunk of the region.

Rain fell most of the night across portions of the area.

There have been 2 to 3 inches of rain across portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Portions of Kentucky/Tennessee, as well.

Other areas have picked up 0.25″ to 0.75″ of rain.

Click on images to enlarge them.

This image shows you what has fallen, thus far.

And satellite shows thickening clouds across most of the region.

There are low clouds in the black area. That may not all be clearing.

We will have on and off shower and thunderstorm chances throughout the week and perhaps even into the weekend.

I had to add low-end chances of thunderstorms into the Saturday and scattered thunderstorms into the Sunday forecast. It appears that an increasingly warmer and more humid air-mass will push into the region. Thus, some heat of the day thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.

Rain totals are going to vary quite a bit. From yesterday through Thursday, most of the area will have picked up 0.6″ to 1.6″ with pockets of 2″ to 3″+ amounts.

Training of showers and thunderstorms will enhance totals in some counties. Where repeatedly thunderstorms occur you could have enough rain to briefly flood ditches and commonly flooded roadways.

We saw that happen over the past 24-hours. That is why there are bands of heavier rain.

Dew points and PWAT values will be seasonally high. That is about to change. Very high PWAT values are likely next week and that raises increasing concerns for heavy rain.

If a frontal boundary or area of low pressure and a frontal boundary interact with these very high PWAT values, then very heavy rain could occur. Flash flooding would definitely be a concern next week. Monitor updates moving forward.

If we clear out today (clouds) then the surface will heat. As mentioned above, that will increase CAPE numbers. Thus, some of the thunderstorms this afternoon could produce 50+ mph wind gusts, nickel size hail, lightning, and if CAPE does build then an isolated tornado risk. Monitor updates.

Let me show you PWAT values for next week. These are big numbers.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Let me show you some rain totals from the NWS and various weather models. This is today through Friday. Most of this will fall today and tonight.

Keep in mind, slow moving thunderstorms can cause huge differences in rain totals. This can occur even within a county. Thus, take these graphics as guidance and not gospel. Rain totals are going to vary greatly.

Hrrr short-range model only goes out to 1 AM Friday (most of this falls today and tonight)

NAM 3K model goes out to 1 PM Friday (most of this falls today and tonight)

NAM model goes out to Saturday (most of this falls today and tonight)

GFS model goes out to Saturday (most of this falls today and tonight)

The NWS/WPC rainfall outlook (most of this falls today and tonight)

The NWS/WPC also has us in a low-end risk of excessive rainfall. This would only be an issue if thunderstorms train over the same area. This simply means a few spots could pick up enough rain to overflow ditches and briefly cause rises in streams/creeks.

Wednesday outlook for excessive rainfall totals.

Let me show you the dew point animation. Much higher dew points are on the way. Muggier weather is on the way.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.