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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Low rain probabilities does not mean it won’t rain. It means there will likely be some precipitation on radar, but scattered in coverage.
Wednesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday. – Partly sunny. Humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range. Temperatures may vary a bit. This will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: East/northeast winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Some clouds. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially early in the evening.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 7 pm. 30% after 7 pm.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but a few evening storms could be strong with gusty winds and dime size hail. Lightning is the main concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Friday. – Partly sunny. Humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range. Temperatures may vary greatly because of cloud cover.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but if storms form they could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and dime size hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Have a plan B.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms. Perhaps better chances after 2 am.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 63-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No, but if storms form they could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Although Saturday might not be an all day rain, there will certainly be periods of showers and thunderstorms. I suspect quite a bit of activity on radar Saturday. Thus, at least have a solid plan B for outdoor events. Then you will be prepared.
Saturday. – Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms will produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. Lightning and heavy downpours are the primary concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a solid plan B.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible, especially before 10 pm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% before 10 pm. 40% after 10 pm. 30% after 2 am. Decreasing chances through the night.
Coverage of precipitation: Ending from west to east
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce gusty winds and dime size hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B for the early evening hours. Hopefully the rain will end by evening.
Sunday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds. Cooler. Small chance for a shower or two. Not as humid.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Less humid. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday. – Mostly sunny. Less humid. Nice.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday. – Mostly sunny and warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday. – Mostly sunny and warmer. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday. – Mostly sunny and warmer. Humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Saturday. – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (long way off. Probabilities always start smaller and increase as confidence grows).
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunday. – Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-84 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-64 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A chance for showers and thunderstorms
- Weekend forecast?
- Finally we dry out next week
If you thought May was wet then you would be correct. Here is where May ranked.
We will have to contend with several chances for showers and thunderstorms between now and Saturday. The good news is that there are not any signals for widespread heavy rain. Last week we knew there would be heavy rain. This week the same ingredients are not readily available. Thus, rainfall totals will be considerably less.
With that said, PWAT values on Friday night into Saturday afternoon will be quite high. We will need to monitor for some heavy downpours.
I am anticipating 0.40″-0.80″ as a general rule. As always, some spots will pick up more and some will pick up less. Typical for late spring and early summer Thunderstorms can always produce locally higher amounts.
I am not seeing any signals for widespread severe storms. I can’t rule out a strong storm on Saturday. That will depend on cloud cover. If we end up socked in with clouds then instability would be lessened.
It won’t rain all of the time between now and Saturday. Plenty of dry weather. But, plan on some showers and storms on radar from time to time.
The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be Saturday. This is when probabilities peak. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then I would encourage you to have a solid plan B. Then, we will hope for the best. I know there are several weddings and outdoor events.
At this time, all fingers and toes crossed, we should have dry weather Sunday through most of next week. We could use a break from the rain. Temperatures from Sunday into Wednesday should be at or below normal. Perhaps a warming trend as we move into the end of next week (Thursday onward).
I am watching for more active weather somewhere between the 11th and 22nd. Long way off.
And with that, I guess we shall kick off meteorological summer. 🙂
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday and Wednesday night: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Thursday and Thursday night: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Friday and Friday night: Isolated thunderstorms possible on Friday and scattered storms possible Friday night. Lightning is the main concern.
Saturday: A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Lightning is the main concern. A couple of storms could be on the strong side.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday-Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Added next weeks forecast numbers.
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I am not overly concerned about severe weather. The atmosphere will be unstable from time to time. Wind fields, however, will be weak. Thus, the severe weather risk will be small. I am watching Saturday for a couple of stronger storms.
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Perhaps keep an umbrella handy. The on and off rain chances should guarantee you at least a few showers this week.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. The most widespread rain should be on Saturday. Although, several rounds of showers and storms will also be possible before that time.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
