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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy with a few remaining showers/drizzle. Otherwise, cool with lows in the 50’s. North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. Tiny chance for a shower. Highs in the 70’s. North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds with a cool start to the morning. Early morning temperatures in the 50’s. Light winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds and mild. Highs in the 70’s. Light winds.
Tuesday night – Some clouds. Cool. Lows in the 50’s. North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and warmer. Only a 10% chance of a popup shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. Cool. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday – Some increase in clouds with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm over our northern and northwestern counties. Monitor updates for Thursday because timing of a disturbance is in question. For now will put the chance at 20% This will need to be monitored – see discussion below. Warm with highs in the 80’s. East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay, but monitor updates.
Thursday night – Some clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Mainly the northern half of the region. Lows will be in the 60’s. Chance for precipitation 30%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday – Partly sunny and warmer. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. A bit more humid. Highs will be in the 80’s. Chance for precipitation at any given spot will be 40%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay, but monitor updates. We may have some precipitation in the region
Weekend: A series of disturbances will move into the region over the weekend into early next week. This may spark some showers and thunderstorms.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Not a bad start for the Month of June
2. Below normal temperatures will turn into above normal temperature by weeks end
3. Disturbances move through the region Thursday through Tuesday
I hope you are enjoying the nice temperatures. Yes, I suppose we could complain about the clouds and drizzle. I will give you that one. But, temperatures are nice (if you don’t like heat). Dew points are also lower…this is not air that you wear. This is more like air that you sit out on the back porch and sip your coffee to.
Dew points were mostly in the 50’s on Monday afternoon. Not bad. Once you get into the upper 60’s and 70’s is when you start to complain about the muggy air.
The jet stream, of course, is diving down from the north and northwest. If you hate hot weather then this is what you want to see during the summer months.
Here is the 200 mb jet stream. Notice how the streamlines are diving in from the north?
Our nice temperatures will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday. Small rain chances.
Temperatures warm up quite a bit by Thursday into the weekend. I can’t rule out a 90 over the weekend, but that will depend on cloud cover.
See the extended discussion below for more details on the weekend.
Tuesdays high temperature forecast
Wednesday high temperature forecast
Thursday high temperature forecast
Check out this beast in the eastern Pacific. A bit early to start this mess. But, nonetheless…it is there.
Hurricane Andres became only the fifth major May hurricane on record in the Northeast Pacific on Sunday, when it intensified into a 125 mph Category 3 storm in the waters about 800 miles southwest of the tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. Its unexpected intensification continued Sunday evening, with Andres reaching Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds at 11 pm EDT. According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms maintained byNOAA’s Office for Coastal Management, Andres’ emergence as a major hurricane at longitude 118.8°W marks the farthest west a major hurricane has been in the Northeast Pacific in May in the 45 years since accurate satellite records began in 1970, and comes well before the usual July 19 formation date of the first major hurricane of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season. – Dr. Jeff Masters
If you read the blog very often you will remember me talking about PWAT values. This is how meteorologists measure moisture in the atmosphere. Is the PWAT satellite view. Can you find the hurricane?
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Our nice below normal days will grow a little bit warmer as we work our way through the new work week
2. What about rain chances for the weekend?
3. Heavy rain potential Sunday through Tuesday?
4. Very long range forecast using the long range cycle
Our first week of June will go down in the books as a decent week with below normal temperatures and low humidity…at least for part of it. The Friday through Sunday period might end up warmer than normal as we see-saw a bit.
We are going to start to see temperatures rise a little bit each day as we work our way towards the end of the week.
A disturbance moving in from the northwest on Thursday might bring some showers and rumbles of thunder to the region. Still low confidence on the placement of this feature. I will keep an eye on it. I put the chance for precipitation at 20% on Thursday, for now.
Let’s look at these disturbances on the weather map. The color shaded areas are the disturbances. I placed a red arrow by each one of them. The one over the southeast United States is the upper level low that slowly will push through the Tennessee Valley over the coming days.
Here is what the radar forecast is for Thursday. Low confidence since this is still a few days away. I will be watching it. Notice how each disturbance produces some precipitation/rain.
Friday into the weekend will bring warmer conditions with a little bit more humidity. Cloud cover could put a damper on reaching the higher temperatures. This is an unknown.
A few disturbances are showing up in the charts for late week and into the weekend. These could spark a few showers and thunderstorms.
Here is another one on Friday night. Again, long way off to time these little disturbances. Their exact track will determine our weather. I will put a few storms in the forecast for Thursday into Sunday. Perhaps the best chances Friday night into Saturday.
Another one of these disturbances shows up on the Sunday weather map. The bright colors on the Sunday disturbance indicate that it is the strongest of the series. Assuming this model is right…which is a big assumption.
Another disturbance arrives on Sunday night into Tuesday. This may be a slow moving cold front with heavy thunderstorms. Again, long range and low confidence
Long range…
Models have been downright horrible lately in the long range. I have to look beyond the models to get a better feel for how things might unfold. Climatology also comes into play.
Long Range Outlook…
Typically during June-August we have a more humid air mass over our region. That normally means a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Any disturbance that moves through these types of air masses can trigger a significant round of precipitation. We call these Mesoscale Convective Complex. Complexes of storms that form during the overnight periods and typically die out during the morning hours. Then a few storms flare back up in the heat of the day as the complex leaves boundaries.
This is something I will start watching for over the coming weeks and months.
My summer forecast is for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Summer for meteorologists runs from June 1st through the end of August. It will be awhile before we can judge the forecast.
Of course we will have plenty of warm and even hot days. Below normal temperatures in our region during the summer months does not equal a cool summer. But, I do believe we see frequent cold fronts that will help the cause (for those who hate hot weather).
Utilizing Gary Lezak’s long range cycle, July looks to be the coolest of the 3 month period with a couple of hotter waves of air in August. Frequent cold fronts will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 3 months. Some of these heavy storms will move in from the northwest. Sweeping southeast they could occasionally produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.
Keep in mind that long range forecasting has a much smaller chance of being correct. But, I know some of you like to play the “long range” forecasting game.
First two weeks of June should bring mostly below normal temperatures. There will be several days with above normal temperatures, but when averaged out the first two weeks should be below normal. As we push past that time there will be a period of warmer than normal weather.
The week of June 14th should see two cold fronts move through the region. Each will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is the risk that one front hangs up in the area.
Week of June 21st will bring several chances for thunderstorms
The week of June 28th should bring good weather for the Fourth of July holiday period with below normal temperatures and lower than normal dew points and humidity.
Most of July will bring frequent rounds of below normal temperatures with several shots at thunderstorms. A series of cold fronts the second half of the month could bring heavier precipitation. Risk for a few of the thunderstorm rounds to produce high winds…especially if they coming in from the northwest.
The weeks of August 9th and 16th will bring hot weather to the region and humid. Scattered pop-up thunderstorms.
We will see how the summer forecast goes. As always the long range is a bit of skill and a bit of guess work based on past patterns.
The May forecast was mixed. I was thinking above normal precipitation with a split on the temperatures. Warmest east and coolest west. That is about how it played out.
Let’s look at the current temperature forecast for the upcoming weekend.
Whether some of us can reach 90 over the weekend is a bit suspect. Not impossible, but will be dependent on these disturbances I mentioned above. Maybe! How is that for a forecast. Either way, 80’s are a good bet for the region.
Thursday temperatures
Friday temperatures
Saturday temperatures (dependent on cloud cover or lack of)
I am a little skeptical on the Saturday and Sunday numbers. We shall see. They may be a little too high on the computer models.
Sunday temperatures (dependent on cloud cover or lack of)
No major concerns!
Do not believe so. Should be some nice weather over the coming days. Some clouds, yes. But the heat and humidity will hold off a bit. More of that towards the end of the week. Small precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. Perhaps a bit better chance during the afternoon hours as we push towards the end of the week and humidity levels increase.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast will be the chance for an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Small chance. Mostly dry for the region. This is the week farmers might catch up.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO. There is at least an isolated chance for a thunderstorm on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the coverage seems greater than anticipated then I will raise this to a ONE. One means some lightning is possible in the region. Keep that in mind.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
There are small rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. At any given spot the risk is 10% or less.
Perhaps some storms on Thursday, but confidence is still low on this happening. Best chances might end up over our western and northern counties.
Here are the official rainfall forecasts through Thursday morning.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
