Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 19th  through June 25th

Current risk:  None.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:   No tornado threats.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  LOW RISK.   There is a low risk of lightning Monday through Wednesday.  For the most part, the forecast is currently hot and dry.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  YES.   Temperatures may reach 90°F or higher Friday into much of next week.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? YES.    Heat index values are expected to approach and exceed 100 degrees this weekend into next week.  Use caution in the heat.

Double click on this graphic to enlarge it.  Notice the heat index values.

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What is the heat index?
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Temperature and Humidity:
The heat index factors in both the actual air temperature and the amount of moisture in the air (relative humidity). 

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Perceived Temperature:
High humidity makes it harder for the body to cool itself through sweating, so the perceived temperature is higher than the actual temperature. 

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Heat-Related Illnesses:
When the heat index is high, the risk of heat-related illnesses, such as heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke, increases, especially with prolonged exposure to the heat or physical activity. 

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Shade vs. Sunlight:
The heat index is typically calculated for shaded areas. Exposure to direct sunlight can further increase the perceived temperature. 

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Here comes summer.
•   Hot and muggy weather Friday into much of next week.
•   High heat index values are expected tomorrow and into next week.
•   A small chance of isolated storms next Tuesday through Thursday.  For now, rain chances are at 20% or less.

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Good day, everyone

It was a stormy 24 hours.  We experienced several severe thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and night.

There were reports of quarter-sized hail and 70+ mph wind gusts.  There was some damage in southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Northwest Tennessee, as well.

Thankfully, the extent of the damage was limited.   All in all, about what was anticipated.

Not everyone experienced storms.  That is not uncommon during the summer months.

The wet pattern is finally coming to an end.

A few showers are lingering in the region this morning, but those are winding down and moving southeast.

Much of the region will be dry today.  A bit humid.  Some lingering clouds.

Here is the 7:00 a.m. satellite view.

You can see the clearing to our north and west.  That will slowly move eastward.

No weather concerns (rainwise) Friday through early next week.

The weather concern will be the heat.

Our first summer heatwave will begin on Friday and will linger into much of next week.

We are expecting widespread 90s Friday through at least next Wednesday.

Heat index values will jump above 100 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Not ideal outdoor weather for those without air conditioning or those who have to work in the heat.

Take standard summer heat precautions.

Rain chances will be less than 10% Friday through Tuesday.  They may increase to around 20% by next Wednesday and Thursday.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.  Here is the GFS high temperature animation through next week.

A prolonged period of heat and humidity.

The reason for the heat will be a ridge.  A ridge typically means heat during the summer months.

Sunday’s 500 mb upper air map.  Jetstream flow.

Next Tuesday’s map

How long does the ridge linger?  That is the biggest question.

The EC breaks it down around the end of the month.  That would mean higher chances of rain.  Long way off.  I will monitor trends.

When the ridge breaks down, then northwest flow can develop.   Northwest flow can bring showers and thunderstorms.

July 1st.  Jetstream flow.

July 3rd

Know the signs of heat illness.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

Rain is not anticipated.
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NAM 3K model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Rain is not anticipated.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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