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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
The NWS has issued some heat advisories and what not. Just means it is going to be hot. Use care, as always. Use common sense when out in the heat. Elderly and children overheat faster than others. And, as always…don’t forget about our outdoor friends.
It is never a bad idea to check on elderly residents who may not like to use their air condition.
Saturday night – Some clouds. Warm. Muggy. Isolated thunderstorm chance.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Early evening gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. Excessive heat. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Small chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs well into the middle and upper 90’s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Sunday night – Some increase in clouds. Thunderstorm chances increasing from the north.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Evening gusts to 15 mph possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? If storms do form the brief heavy rain and lightning.
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance for some thunderstorms. Not as hot as recent days. Some storms could be strong.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe thunderstorms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Monday night – Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be heavy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe thunderstorms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: West winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Tuesday Night into Thursday:
Uncertainties abound about just how long the cold front will linger in our region. This raises questions on high temperatures (if we have clouds and storms then it won’t be as hot) and precipitation during that time period. Perhaps even into Friday.
Thunderstorms chances will continue Tuesday night into at least Wednesday. Some data shows storms on Thursday, as well. This would knock temperatures down a bit on Thursday. Something to consider.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Sunday will bring hot temperatures. Summer!
2. Cold front nears our region Sunday night into Tuesday/Wednesday. Precipitation chances will be on the increase.
Do you remember the higher risk for severe weather day we had earlier this week? Locally the CAP held and we were spared the devastating storms that struck to our east. Many of you watched videos of the storm damage and flooding. Several lives were also lost because of flash flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center posted this radar slide of the storms that raced out of Wisconsin and tracked through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and eventually West Virginia and southward.
And it continued on past this image slide. Amazing what strong upper level winds can do when combined with heat and high moisture content of the air.
We were extremely fortunate earlier this week. It could have ended badly. Thankfully we had a CAP over our region. If you remember I made numerous posts monitor the potential and kept mentioning how strong the CAP was over our local counties. Thus, we were spared.
The damage to our east was incredible. Numerous counties in Kentucky had flash flood warnings and flash flood emergencies.
Some AP photos of the damage to our east
Now you know why I was so worried on that particular day. It could have gone either way for our local counties.
That is a home being swept away in the flood waters.
We never realize sometimes what could have happened. Earlier this week was one of those days.
Back to our local weather for the upcoming week…
The big story on Sunday is going to be the hot weather. It is summer, after all. We have heat every year. So this is nothing unusual or even extreme. Yes, it is muggy. But again, it is summer! We are used to this weather.
The National Weather Service has issued some heat advisories. This just means it is hot and humid. Heat index values above 100 degrees will be common on Sunday.
Follow all the normal heat safety rules. You know them. I always feel dumb telling you to drink water and seek an air conditioned building if you are hot. 🙂 Something you might not know…heat stroke symptoms. Here is a great article on the subject. Click here.
The good news is that a cold front will slowly sag into our region on Sunday night and linger until Tuesday or Wednesday. How long the front lingers will determine how long our temperatures will cool down, ever so slightly. How about 80’s instead of 90’s? That is the forecast for Monday into Wednesday.
You can see the front here on Sunday morning and then the second image is Sunday evening.
And then Sunday evening
Once the front moves back north we can expect the 90’s to return. We could also expect heat index values above 100 to return. We have a lot of moisture in the ground. That isn’t helping our cause when it comes to the muggy feeling in the air.
With the front will come increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain (excessive rain), gusty winds, and frequent lighting. I will have to work on the timing of the best thunderstorm chances.
Some of the models bring an MCS (mesoscale convective system) into our region Monday night. If that happens then I will have to monitor for strong thunderstorms and flash flooding. But, for now…it is a wait and see.
What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
If you remember me talking about PWAT values in past blog updates, then you will know that high values equal heavy rain. What we don’t want to have happen is the high PWAT values end up stuck over our region. That happened the first part of July and the results were a lot of flooding.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Now, with that said…just because a system has high PWAT values does not always mean heavy rain will occur. And, this will need to be monitored Sunday night into Tuesday/Tuesday night. Keep that in mind. Sometimes you have ingredients that come together but don’t always produce.
Let’s take a look at few maps from Hazwx.com
These are PWAT value maps. When you start seeing 1.5 to 2.3 readings then you have to be concerned about locally heavy rain.
This first map is for Sunday afternoon. See the cold front to the north? Notice how the purple and orange colors pool ahead of the front? Imagine a bull dozen plowing into moisture. That is what is happening. Sometimes this push and shove causes high moisture content to pool ahead of a cold front. When that happens you can expect very heavy rain (where storms develop)
Now let’s watch the front push southward and the high PWAT values. Purple values are in the 1.3 to 1.9 range. Orange values and red equal 2.0 to 2.3 values. Very high moisture content.
This is for Monday at 1 am. Notice what has happened? The pool of very high PWAT values has shifted southward. Any thunderstorms that form on Sunday night into Monday morning could produce torrential downpours in some locations. The question is going to be placement of the storms. Will a convective complex form? That is another question. If so then it will have plenty of moisture to feed on.
Then moving ahead to Monday at 10 am
This is a little concerning. The high readings aren’t moving much. This is one signal I look for when forecasting heavy rain or flash flooding. The big question, however, is how much thunderstorm activity will develop along the front? Will there be a complex of storms? If so, does that cause a lot of clouds on Monday. If there is a lot of clouds then the instability of the atmosphere won’t be as great. Lot of questions remain on the coverage of precipitation Sunday night into Tuesday.
Someone will end up with some heavy rain totals.
This image is for Monday night. We have some high readings in and near our region.
Now watch what happens on Tuesday. The front starts to move through our region and south of our region.
You can almost image the front moving through with the purple vs the blue colors. Highest moisture content will be along of the front.
Tuesday afternoon. The front continues to move through our local area. High PWAT values pooling ahead of it. Perhaps higher readings in Indiana. This will need to be monitored.
Finally, one more map. This is the Wednesday PWAT map. You can see the purple (higher moisture) has moved to our south. That is because the front will be south of us.
Now, whether this front can tap into all of that moisture or not…that is the big question. Let’s keep an eye on it.
The front should nudge back north by the end of the week. That means hot weather will return as the ridge of high pressure builds back into our local counties. But, when? Some data keeps clouds and storms in our region Thursday and Friday. This is a piece of the weather puzzle that will need to be monitored.
The threat for severe weather Sunday night into Tuesday/Wednesday isn’t zero. But, it does not look like a widespread severe weather event (like happened last week just north and east of us) is in the cards. As always, I will monitor and update.
Of course it only take a couple of severe storms to cause problems.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk for a few severe storms on Monday. I will be monitoring and updating as need be.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The early part of the new work week will bring some thunderstorms and slightly cooler weather
2. Data now indicates unsettled weather into Thursday.
3. Heat should return by the end of the week. Tug of war between the ridge of high pressure and the troughs. Some data is pushing the highest temperatures further south and west. Perhaps the ridge will be a bit further west than earlier thought? If so, that changes a lot of things when it comes to heat and precipitation. This will need to be monitored.
I have always told you that when the ridge wins this summer that you can expect hot and humid weather conditions. It has been a tug of war between the ridge and the troughs.
The troughs brought us below normal temperatures through much of July. Also the wet weather. Then all of a sudden the ridge pushed back in and like weather magic…heat heat heat.
When the ridge wins we will have heat. Check out these maps below. The ridge isn’t finished with us. The big H is the high pressure ridge.
This first map is for Sunday. The deep red colors…the ridge. Heat. Right over our region. But, watch what happens on Monday into Wednesday. It is suppressed further south.
Images are from weatherbell.com
This is for next Tuesday and Wednesday (below image). Notice how the ridge is further south? A cold front will be near our region. Thunderstorms typically move around the edge of the heat ridge.
Then next weekend. Hot again? Maybe. This image below shows the high building back in. The heat ridge.
But, some of the data shows the cold front lingering in our region. Low confidence in the Thursday into Friday time frame.
Mixed signals on the models for the week after next. Whether another trough builds back into the Ohio Valley with northwest flow (cooler than normal and wetter than normal) or we end up stuck under the ridge. Questions, questions, questions. The ridge means heat. The trough means wet.
Let’s keep an eye on Dolores (out in the Pacific). Where will this moisture go? Right now it appears to be heading towards California. But, I will keep an eye on it. Sometimes these systems can feed moisture into the Central United States. We saw that happen a month or so ago.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall forecast for Monday through Wednesday. We will have to watch for heavier totals if a complex of storms does end up forming and tracking across our region.
This is broad-brushed and certainly higher totals could occur.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ZERO to ONE for Saturday. Perhaps a 10% chance for a storm. Otherwise, dry and pleasant weather.
Sunday: No severe weather anticipated. Small chances for thunderstorms.
Sunday night into Monday-Tuesday: Thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds with the heaviest storms. Severe weather risk appears small, but perhaps not zero. I will keep you updated, as always.
The heat index is the main concern for Sunday. Heat index values of 100 to 108 (perhaps a bit hotter) will be common. Use care, as always
Thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday night into Tuesday. Perhaps a couple of rounds of storms as a cold front stalls over the region. Locally heavy rain is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm reports are also possible. Meaning, damaging wind gusts.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
