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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Thursday night – Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Some locally heavy rain possible. Lows in the 70’s. Winds from the south at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Storms are possible. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Flooding is possible in areas that have experienced heavy rain over the last few days.
A reminder to parents and adults. Kids playing near flooded creeks, streams, culverts, and rivers can be a deadly combination. Numerous children have drowned in our region playing near flood waters over the last few decades. I would recommend being vigilant about this subject.
Friday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Gusty winds at times from the south/southeast at 10-25 mph. Flash flood watch in effect for the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe weather possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. Flooding possible.
Friday Night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain likely. Flash flooding or flooding possible in areas that experience the heaviest rain. Gusty winds from the south/southeast at 10-25 mph. Higher gusts likely. Winds becoming southwest late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe weather possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? Near 100%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. Flash flooding possible.
Some of the new data moves Bill out of our region a bit quicker on Saturday. If so that might be good news for outdoor events. Monitor updates and radars.
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east during the morning. Highs in the 80’s. Muggy. Gusty winds from the west/southwest at 10-15 mph. Higher wind gusts possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% early and 30% in the afternoon and then 20% in the evening.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Flooding is possible in areas that have experienced heavy rain over the last few days.
Saturday Night – A small chance for an evening shower. Decreasing clouds. Lows in the 70’s. West and southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No impact.
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Highs in the 80’s to lower 90’s. Southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Some thunderstorms may develop over our northwestern and northern counties. Low confidence on this. Some uncertainty as to how far south to bring this complex of storms. I feel confident about northern and northeastern counties receiving some rain from this system. Parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky may not see too much from this complex. But, monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No…storms should be later in the night.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Frequent lightning, gusty winds near storms. Heavy rain likely with the complex of storms. The track of the storms will need to be monitored.
Heat wave arrives next week…see below for details.
Cooler weather for the very end of June into early July. Heavy rain potential, as well. See extended discussion for details.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Ongoing heavy thunderstorms continue to produce heavy rain in the region.
2. Remnants of Tropical Storm Bill arrive on Friday afternoon into Saturday
3. Major river flooding likely on the Mississippi River and sharp rises for the Ohio River
4. Heat wave next week in our region. Temperatures well into the 90’s.
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Well, here is Bill on visible satellite. You can see the swirl in the clouds.
A flash flood watch covers much of the area. Those not in the watch can also expect heavy rainfall.
Current watches and warnings can be viewed here. Watches and warnings map – click here
It will be tricky to forecast the exact counties that will receive the heaviest rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. I would not be surprised if someone picks up greater than 4″ of rain. Not sure how much over the 4″ mark. Some of the data paints 3-6″ for some of our counties.
Let’s look at the future-cast radar from the high resolution WRF model. This is that models idea of what will happen.
Images are from www.weatherbell.com
This is for Friday around 3-5 PM. You can see heavy storms over some of our counties. The large complex of showers and storms extends from northern Arkansas into southern Missouri. It is moving east/northeast. Slowly moving.
Moving forward into Friday night. This is a concern. I don’t like to see heavy rain in our region at night. Avoid flooded roadways. One many died in southeast Missouri this week from driving into flood waters.
Then moving into Saturday. You can see the system pulling away. This is the 10 am radar view.
Let’s look at some rainfall forecast maps from weatherbell.com
This is the high resolution WRF model. Click the image for a larger view.
I would not take this rainfall forecast as exactly what will happen. Models always struggle with tropical systems and rainfall amounts. But, take the general idea that heavy rain will be possible over some of our counties. Scale is on the right (inches)
The models are in close agreement on the path, but not in total agreement. The NAM model is further south with the low. The GFS model takes the low into southwest Indiana. The NAM tracks the low over western Kentucky.
Here is the NAM track (the low is the closed circle). You can see the low over the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky.
Here is the GFS track. See the low over southwest Indiana? The closed circle line on the Illinois and Indiana border.
The track is very important as to where the heaviest rain falls.
The heaviest rain will occur to the north and east of the track of the low. Although anyone in the path of Bill will experience some heavy downpours.
I would encourage everyone to monitor watches and warnings issued by the NWS. Some flash flood warnings will likely be issued for parts of our region on Friday into Saturday morning.
The system will pull away on Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will end from west to east. By Saturday evening most of the area should be dry. A few lingering showers will be possible.
Sunday will be warm and muggy. Temperatures around 88-92 degrees.
A new complex of storms may form on Sunday night to our north and northwest. This complex of storms, if it forms, would track southeast into at least the northern parts of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky. It may track further south, but I am not confident of how far south.
Parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky may not see too much from this complex. But, monitor updates.
Let’s look at the setup for Sunday night.
High CAPE values are expected in our region on Sunday night. CAPE is energy. The storm complex should track along the northern edge of the high CAPE values (if it forms). That means it would track from Iowa into northern Missouri and then into parts of central and southern Illinois and then Kentucky. How far south and west is questionable.
Southwest winds aloft would fuel the storms. Northwest winds above that will track the system southeast.
Here is the supercell composite map for Sunday night. Perhaps some stronger storms to our northwest.
Here is the 6 hour precipitation map for Sunday night and Monday morning. You can picture the track based on the rainfall totals. It will move northwest to southeast. Notice that it does NOT reach into all of our counties. How far south and west will need to be monitored. Again, best chances for rain (some heavy) will be over our northern counties.
You can see how it tracks along that highest CAPE values (maps above). Below is the rainfall totals expected from the complex.
Low confidence on both Sunday night and Monday nights precipitation chances.
Watches and warnings map – click here
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Hot weather from Sunday into next Friday
2. Cooler and wet weather late June into July. Flooding potential remains a concern.
3. Major river flooding along the Mississippi with sharp rises on the Ohio River.
A heat wave will arrive next week. Every single day will top 90 degrees. I suspect middle to upper 90’s will occur on Tuesday into Friday. Not sure if someone will reach 100. Wet ground conditions could shave a few degrees off of afternoon highs. Either way, it will be hot and humid. Muggy. Not the best weather forecast.
Heat index values will top 100 degrees.
Our far northeastern counties near the KY/IL/IN line may have to deal with some storms from time to time as a cold front will be draped near our region.
Longer range models continue to develop a trough over our region towards the end of the month. If this happens then a return to a northwest flow will occur. This would bring below normal temperatures and frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern may continue into July. There is much debate about this subject in the meteorological community.
We will see how it plays out.
The big news in the long range, for now, is the heat wave.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 90’s
Wednesday middle 90’s
Thursday middle 90’s
Friday 90’s (not sure how high to go on Friday with highs, just yet)
Overnight lows on some nights will only dip into the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Summer weather.
June has already been warm. Let’s look at the past 14 days. The first few days of June were below normal in the temperature department. But, since then…warm warm warm.
These are the June 4th through June 17th temperature anomalies (the map below).
All of this may change as we push into the very end of the month and early July. This has been forecast since late May and early June to happen. Will it? We shall see.
I am concerned about heavy rain and storms if this pattern develops as expected.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
The main concern Thursday night into Saturday will be tropical moisture over our region. Extremely heavy downpours have been a problem over the past week. Some places have picked up a quick 1″ of rain in less than 15 minutes!
Ongoing thunderstorms in the region will continue to produce prolific rain totals. Flash flooding or small stream and urban flooding will be a concern where storms train over the same counties.
Once the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill arrive on Friday afternoon and night/Saturday morning then the flash flood risk will increase even more. Some counties will likely require flash flood warnings. The highest chance for problems will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Monitor updates.
Sunday night and early Monday morning we might see additional rain moving in from the northwest. Mainly our northern and northeastern counties over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and northern and northwest Kentucky.
Another chance Monday night, but perhaps a tad further northeast.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO for Friday. I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm. Damaging wind gusts and brief/short lived tornadoes are possible.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
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Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Some strong storms possible. Tornado risk isn’t zero, but it is low.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Some strong storms possible. Tornado risk isn’t zero, but it is low.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – A few thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Monitor updates.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
My main concern will be some flash flooding with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. Rainfall totals will likely exceed 3″ in some counties as the system moves into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Local amounts greater than 4-5″ will be possible. Best chances for the big totals will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (see the graphics for details).
Western Kentucky isn’t out of the woods either. Heavy rain is likely to occur, as well. Hard to pin down the exact area that will pick up the biggest numbers.
Keep in mind that any storms that train over the same areas could produce torrential downpours. This is always a concern. Over the past few days we have watched some storms produce 1″-3″ of rain per hour in our region. Of course some of you have once again missed out on the rains.
Needless to say, this will cause some flooding problems. The biggest concern will be over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where totals have ranged from 1-7″+ inches over the past week or so. Widespread heavy rain has fallen over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Any additional heavy rain will cause some flash flooding. Monitor any warnings that are issued.
I will need to monitor the tornado potential with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. Sometimes these systems can produce a few short lived tornadoes on the east and southeast side of the system.
Gusty winds on Friday into Friday night will also be an issue. Winds of 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph are likely to occur along the path of Bill.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card for Friday will be who ends up with the heaviest rainfall totals from the remnants of Bill. Someone in the region will likely pick up more than 4″ of rain from the system. The best bet for this would be somewhere over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. The heaviest rains will likely be Friday night into Saturday morning. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
