Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  30%
Southeast Missouri ~  30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  30%
Southern Illinois ~  30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the PM hours.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson weather radars.
UV Index:  8 – High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Tuesdsay Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Mainly during the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson weather radars.
Moonrise: 5:21 PM
Moonset: 2:47  AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  10%
Southern Illinois ~  10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8 – High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast wind 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:27 PM
Moonset: 3:18  AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
Southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~   0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast wind 0 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:33 PM
Moonset: 3:57  AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:  Mostly sunny hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
Southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10.  Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~   0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast wind 0 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:37 PM
Moonset: 4:45  AM
The phase of the moon: Full Moon

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Scattered storms impacted portions of the region yesterday.  Some of the rain was heavy with gusty wind and lightning.

We have another chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today.  The coverage today may be lower than it was yesterday.

Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, gusty wind, small hail, and lightning.  A small chance of a microburst that could produce wind gusts strong enough to break branches.

Any thunderstorm activity will wane this evening.

Temperatures today will vary greatly based on cloud cover and any ongoing precipitaton.  Areas with thicker clouds will remain in the 80s.  Areas that have some sunshine will pop into the 90s.

Heat index values today will range from the upper 80s to middle 90s.  Again, depending on your air temperature.

Wednesday through Sunday will be hot and humid.  Daily highs will be in the 90s.  Heat index values will jump into the upper 90s to lower 100s.  Mainly in the 96 to 102 range.  Not extreme, but the prolonged nature of the heat spell will be difficult on the yound and elderly.  Make sure basic common-sense heat precautions are taken.

A cold front will approach the region Saturday night/Sunday and Sunday night.  This will bring a chance of intense thunderstorms.

Temperatures may be slightly cooler by Monday and Tuesday.  It does appear the heat will return next week, as well.  Guidance shows on and off heat waves into much of July and August.  The overall pattern may remain similar.

The wild card in the long range forecast will be the tropics.  Tropical storms and hurricanes would bring more clouds and rain to our region.  Perhaps some million dollar rains, as farmers like to call them.

If we do end up in drought, then those tropical rains would be quite beneficial.

Heat Safety

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the FV3 Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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