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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds in the region. Showers and heavy thunderstorms possible. Heavy rainfall totals will be possible where storms develop. Some flooding of streams and roadways possible where thunderstorms train over the same areas. Highs in the 80’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Storms are possible. Monitor radars if you have outdoor events.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for severe weather. High winds would be the main concern.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. Flash flooding possible in areas that have experienced heavy rain over the last few days.
A reminder to parents and adults. Kids playing near flooded creeks, streams, culverts, and rivers can be a deadly combination. Numerous children have drowned in our region playing near flood waters over the last few decades. I would recommend being vigilant about this subject.
Thursday night – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Some locally heavy rain possible. Lows in the 70’s. Winds from the south at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Storms are possible. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Flooding is possible in areas that have experienced heavy rain over the last few days.
Friday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Gusty winds at times from the south/southeast at 10-25 mph. Some uncertainty about Friday’s wind speeds. I will need to see how fast the remnants of Bill move into the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe weather possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. Flooding possible.
Friday Night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain likely. Flash flooding or flooding possible in areas that experience the heaviest rain. Gusty winds from the south/southeast at 10-25 mph. Higher gusts likely. Winds becoming southwest late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe weather possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. Flooding possible.
Saturday – A good chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially the first half of the day. Heavy rain possible. Highs in the upper 70’s and 80’s. Gusty winds from the west/southwest at 10-15 mph. Higher wind gusts possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%–70% early and 40% in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Flooding is possible in areas that have experienced heavy rain over the last few days.
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Perhaps some storms Sunday night. Thinking is that most of Sunday will be dry with highs in the 80’s.
Heat wave arrives next week…see below for details.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Heavy storms have been occurring in the region. Some places are picking up 1-3″ rainfall rates per hour. Other areas have remained dry. Urban and small stream flooding is a concern. Flash flooding is also a concern.
2. Remnants of Tropical Storm Bill continues to be the main topic of discussion
3. Heat wave next week in our region. Temperatures well into the 90’s.
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
I am running behind today because of ongoing weather in the region.
The region has been split over the past few days. The haves and the have nots. Those who have picked up extremely heavy rainfall (with flooding of streams and roadways) and those who have remained bone dry.
Some places picked up 2-4″ of rain on Wednesday.
Monday and Tuesday also brought heavy rain to some of our local counties. All of this rain is adding up and enhancing flooding problems of some of the streams and rivers in our region. Major rises are likely on area rivers over the coming days.
Rainfall rates of 1-3″ per hour will continue through Friday night and Saturday morning. If you find yourself parked under one of these storms then you will pick up a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Training cells have also caused problems over the last few days. Repeated storms moving over the same areas.
Flash flooding and urban and small stream flooding will continue to be a concern for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee over the coming days.
The big story continues to be the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. Bill has since been downgraded, but the widespread heavy rain continues along the path of the storm.
The heaviest rain will fall to the north and east of the center of this system. There are several reasons for this (and all of the model data shows this). Now, out in Oklahoma that heaviest rains fell on the north and northwest side of the system. Over Texas a lot of the heavy rain fell on the east and northeast side of the system. A tropical system isn’t a stagnant entity. It evolves and changes.
Bill should arrive by Friday afternoon into Saturday. There is some differences in the models as to the exact timing. Some data wants to bring most of the system into our region on Friday night and Saturday morning.
There is also some differences in the models as to the exact track. I am starting to favor the slightly ever southward trend on the models. That means more of our region will have to deal with heavy rain. Including parts of western Kentucky.
Impacts from Bill
Strong winds on Friday into Friday night could top 40 mph in some of our counties. This would most likely occur over parts of southeast Missouri. Elsewhere, between Friday into Saturday morning, we can expect 10-20 mph winds with gusts above 30 mph possible. Any thunderstorms that form could bring down strong wind gusts.
Heavy rain: Rainfall totals of 1-3″ with pockets of 3-6″ will be possible. This isn’t much higher than what some of our counties have already experienced over the past 7 days.
I can’t rule out some areas picking up more than 6″ of rain. Confidence is low on this happening. Historically events like this have produced significant flash flooding during the overnight hours in our region. The timing that Bill moves through our region is important. At night these systems pull inward. Concentrated extremely heavy rain occurs when this happens.
We will be on the watch for flash flooding on Friday into Saturday morning across our region.
The heaviest rains will likely fall over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Any shift in the track of Bill will impact the area of heaviest rainfall. See the graphics further down in the blog. I posted several rainfall charts. The models differ a little bit on the exact placement of the heaviest rain band.
There is a small risk for short lived tornadoes along the path of Bill. This doesn’t seem to be a great risk. The risk isn’t, however, zero. Keep this in mind.
A heat wave will occur next week (see the extended discussion below)
Let’s look at the track of Bill. This is the GFS model. Some of the models have the low further north. This will need to continue to be monitored and updated.
If the system does take the southern route then far southeast Missouri and the southern half of Illinois could pick up some big rain totals. Parts of western Kentucky would also be a concern.
7 AM On Friday. You can see the low over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Rain spreading out well to the east.
This is the 7 pm map for Friday. The low continues to slowly track northeast and east. Very heavy downpours along its path. Mainly to the north and east of the center. This is partly because of a strong jet.
This is the 1 am Saturday morning map (below). The low is now centered over southeast Missouri. It is not in any hurry to leave. That is a concern for flash flooding. Historically overnight tropical events can produce very heavy rainfall totals and flash flooding. Monitor updates.
Watches and warnings map – click here
On top of all of this, river flooding will increasingly become a concern. Especially the Mississippi River. Check out the forecast for Cape Girardeau. This will be a top 10 flood. Updated crest forecasts may be necessary. Depending on the exact track of Bill.
The Ohio River will also rise, but not as much as the Mississippi. See the river crest forecast links further down in the blog.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Some possible storms on Sunday night into Monday morning (coming in from the northwest and north)
2. A heat wave will develop next week
I will be watching a disturbance on Sunday afternoon and night that should spark a complex of storms to our northwest and north. This complex of storms will slide south and southeast on Sunday night into Monday morning. Confidence is low as to how far south and east this system will survive.
Gusty winds and heavy rain will accompany the complex. This on top of recent heavy rainfall could be a problem.
The bad news is that a real heat wave will develop next week. From Tuesday into Friday our region will experience numerous middle to upper 90’s for daytime highs. High humidity levels, as well. It won’t feel very nice outside.
Longer range models continue to develop a trough over our region towards the end of the month. If this happens then a return to a northwest flow will occur. This would bring below normal temperatures and frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern may continue into July. There is much debate about this subject in the meteorological community.
We will see how it plays out.
The big news in the long range, for now, is the heat wave.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 90’s
Wednesday middle to upper 90’s
Thursday middle to upper 90’s
Friday 90’s (not sure how high to go on Friday with highs, just yet)
Overnight lows on some nights will only dip into the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Summer weather.
The analogs have done well on forecasting this heat wave. Here is the analogs for next week
The area in red indicates where the analogs have been forecasting above normal temperatures. Looks about right to me.
This next map is centered on June 27th. Next week will be hot.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals will continue to vary over our region. Highest totals over the past week were forecast to fall mainly over Missouri and Illinois. That has sure been the case. With isolated pockets of very heavy rain elsewhere.
This will continue on Thursday, but perhaps a bit more coverage into Kentucky, as well.
A more widespread rain will enter the picture on Friday into Saturday morning. Most of the region should pick up some rain from Tropical Storm Bill (remnants of).
Again, as always…slow moving cells can produce excessive rain in short periods of time.
Latest rainfall forecast maps from a few computer models
Let’s compare. There are differences.
Here is the NAM model (click to enlarge Hazwx.com image)
Now, let’s look at the GFS model (it shows the heavier rains a bit further south and east)
And then a special in-house run GFS model from HazWx. There are differences. I believe the best chance for the heaviest rain will be over parts of Missouri and Illinois. But, still some time for changes.
The bulk of the heaviest rain should fall on Friday into Friday night as the system passes. Although, rain is certainly going to occur before then in some counties, as well.
Rain will likely continue into Saturday morning.
The common theme is that parts of MO and IL will pick up the most rain. But, don’t discount far southern Illinois, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee for some heavy rain, as well. Especially if a band of storms forms on Friday during the day.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for Thursday. I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm, but generally a one will cover it.
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Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Some strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Some strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms possible. Severe risk appears low, but not zero
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – A few thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Monitor updates.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Storms are possible on Monday morning.
My main concern will be some flash flooding with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. Rainfall totals will likely exceed 3″ in some counties as the system moves into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Local amounts greater than 4-5″ will be possible. Best chances for the big totals will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (see the graphics for details).
Keep in mind that any storms that train over the same areas could produce torrential downpours. This is always a concern. Over the past few days we have watched some storms produce 1″-3″ of rain per hour in our region. Of course some of you have once again missed out on the rains.
Needless to say, this will cause some flooding problems. The biggest concern will be over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where totals have ranged from 1-7″+ inches over the past week or so. Widespread heavy rain has fallen over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Any additional heavy rain will cause some flash flooding. Monitor any warnings that are issued.
I will need to monitor the tornado potential with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. Sometimes these systems can produce a few short lived tornadoes on the east and southeast side of the system.
Gusty winds on Friday into Friday night will also be an issue. Winds of 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph are likely to occur along the path of Bill.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – Tropical storm Bill will enter our region on Friday. The main core of the system likely won’t reach our immediate local area until Friday and Friday night. Rainfall totals will be the wild card. Expect the heaviest totals to be over Missouri and Illinois (no change in the forecast on that topic). But, any storms that form ahead of the system further south and east could also produce torrential downpours. Flash flooding is a concern if multiple storms pass over any given area.
Expect widespread 1-3″ totals for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. With pockets of 3-6″ possible. This is on top of the widespread heavy rain that has fallen over the past week in those areas.
Western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee (and far southern Illinois/Missouri Bootheel) is a bit trickier on totals. Some spots could exceed 2″ of rain, but perhaps it won’t be as widespread as what will happen a tad further northwest (northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois). Monitor updates.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
