Sunday morning update
Sunday, June 18, 2017: A cold front will move through the area today.
Thunderstorms will be possible today along and ahead of a cold front.
An MCS moved through portions of the area last night. There were a few severe thunderstorm warnings over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern Illinois.
The atmosphere is unstable, but not as unstable as it would be if we would not have had the morning showers and storms/clouds. That is the good news.
A few of the storms this morning could produce strong and gusty winds. Brief torrential downpours. Small hail is also possible.
Cloud to ground lightning is also being reported with the thunderstorms.
There is a chance that a few storms could pulse up to severe levels. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorm warnings.
Showers and storms end tonight. Dry Monday through Wednesday. Cooler and less humid on Monday and Tuesday.
Saturday night and Sunday Severe Weather Update:
Videos can be viewed at this link. Long Range Video Update
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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June 17, 2017
The rest of today:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. A 30% for a thunderstorm at any given location. High temperatures 86 t0 94 degrees. South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. A few storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A line of thunderstorms likely to move in from central Missouri and central Illinois. The line will dive southward overnight. It will be weakening as it moves further and further south and east. This will raise thunderstorm chances into the likely category across the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Confidence further south and east is lower. This line could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some heavy downpours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail and gusty winds with the most intense storms.
Is severe weather expected? A few reports of damaging winds possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered before 8 pm. Increasing coverage late at night as a squall line moves in from the northwest. The line is forecast to weaken as it moves further and further south and east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
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June 18, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance for showers and thunderstorms along an incoming cold front. Some storms could be strong.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Stronger winds near thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur. High winds possible with some storms. Hail possible with a few storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? A marginal risk for damaging winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for evening storms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur
Is severe weather expected? A marginal risk for damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Coverage diminishing overnight.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind.
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June 19, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid. Small chance for isolated storms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. A small chance for isolated thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 60 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Northwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 20, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL 84 to 88 KY 84 to 88 TN 84 to 88
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 21, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 22, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 23, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 24, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 25, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Saturday night through Sunday night: There will be a chance for thunderstorms both tonight and Sunday. Some of the storms could produce frequent lightning, tropical downpours, and strong winds. There is a risk that a few storms could produce damaging winds and nickel size hail. Monitor updates.
Monday through Friday of next week: Severe weather is not anticipated. Uncertainties surround thunderstorm chances beyond Wednesday. Monitor updates.
Weather Analysis for the coming week:
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
Saturday afternoon and night:
A large MCS impacted parts of Kansas and Missouri last night. Check out this IR satellite view of the system. MCS’s form during the summer months and are responsible for the vast majority of agriculture rains.
Those red colors are very cold cloud tops. Cirrus clouds and thunderstorms. Tops on these storms were over 50,000′. The colors represent temperature. The dark red colors are very cold cloud tops.
A line of thunderstorms (an MCS) will likely move into our region from central Missouri. This line of storms will move south and southeast. Some of the storms could produce high winds. Monitor any warnings that might have to be issued.
A cold front will begin to creep into the region tonight. This front will be accompanied by thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will occur with the storms. Frequent lightning will be an issue, as well. Monitor radars if you have outdoor events.
The line is forecast to weaken as it moves south and east. Here are a couple of future-cast radar images.
Here is the NAM model guidance. This is what it thinks radar will look like tonight.
This is for 1 am on Sunday.
Look what it shows for 7 am
The NAM rapidly weakens the line as it moves into our area.
On the other hand, the SPC WRF model keeps the line intact further into our area. Different guidance packages and different ideas. I do believe the line will be weakening as it moves south and east. That is the good news.
That may not, however, prevent, a few severe thunderstorm warnings for our northern counties. Monitor updates.
Sunday and Sunday night:
A cold front will sweep through the region on Sunday. This front will usher in lower temperatures and lower dew points. This will temporarily bring an end to the miserable afternoon muggy air.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany frontal passage. The question is, what time does the front move through the region?
If the front moves through during the morning hours then the severe weather risk will be lower. Instability won’t be as great. If the front moves through during the late morning and afternoon hours then some reports of damaging winds will be possible.
Either way, whatever storms do pass through the region will produce heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and perhaps even a few reports of hail. The freezing level will be fairly high. That means the hail threat should be limited.
Monitor updates if you have outdoor events on Sunday. I would not cancel anything, but be weather aware.
Monday through Tuesday:
Dry conditions are forecast for both Monday and Tuesday. A small chance for showers before 7 am on Monday. The cold front should be well to our south and east by sunrise. If it were to slow down, just a tad, then perhaps our far southern and eastern counties could experience a shower remaining.
Temperatures will be lower on both days and so will dew points. Lower dew points will mean a better feel to the air. Nicer air. Highs on both days should rise into the lower to middle 80’s. Some guidance shows upper 80’s on Tuesday. I will keep an eye on it.
Wednesday through Sunday:
Lower than normal confidence during this time period. Some of the guidance wants to bring additional showers and thunderstorms into our local area. I don’t have a handle on whether we will or won’t have additional thunderstorms, but I am monitoring guidance trends. For now, I left the forecast dry. Monitor updates.
It is possible the greater thunderstorm coverage will remain a bit to our north. Too close to call.
Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the upper 80’s. Thursday into Sunday will likely bring upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Dew points will also be on the rise. Higher dew points will mean a return to muggy air. Dew point is what controls how you feel during the summer months.
Summer rain probabilities. What you should know
We are entering a summer pattern. Air-mass thunderstorms are common in our region during the months of June through August. Thunderstorm probabilities are often 20% to 30%. What does that mean? It normally means a 100% that someone in the area will receive a thunderstorm. Most areas, however, will remain dry.
Weather forecasting, during the summer months, can be difficult to predict county by county. Mainly because of the random nature of air-mass thunderstorms.
They tend to dot radar, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. This is because the sun heats the ground and that causes air to rise. Cumulus clouds will form if you have sufficient rising motion. Those Cumulus clouds turn into Cumulonimbus clouds. Cumulonimbus clouds are thunderstorms.
These storms can drop an inch of rain in less than fifteen minutes. I call them gully washers. Meanwhile, your neighbor barely receives a sprinkle.
If you have lived in our region, any amount of time, then you are familiar with these types of thunderstorms. Some meteorologists call them air-mass thunderstorms. Others call them popcorn thunderstorms (because they dot radar).
Occasionally these thunderstorms will produce pockets of wind damage. Downburst winds can exceed 60 mph over small areas. They also produce frequent cloud to ground lightning. If they are slow moving then isolated flash flooding will result.
So the next time you plan an outdoor event and there is a 20% chance for thunderstorms, remember what that 20% actually means.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
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If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
