Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

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Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

June 17th  through June 23rd

Current risk:  ISOLATED.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  A few thunderstorms will likely be severe on Wednesday afternoon and night.  Some of the storms could produce damaging winds and hail.  There is a low level/isolated risk of short-lived tornadoes.   Monitor updates.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible today through Thursday.  The risk of lightning Friday through Tuesday is small.  If lightning threatens, move indoors.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.  Thunderstorms during the summer months can produce isolated, damaging wind gusts.  Downburst winds.  This can occur with little or no warning.

A stronger storm system is expected to bring a chance of severe weather to the region on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The primary concern is large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a level two and three risk.  The levels run from one to five.  One is the lowest.

Here is a graphic from the Memphis, TN, NWS.  For their counties, they have 6 pm onward.  This time could be in flux.  If storms form a bit earlier or move a bit faster, then some adjustments in timing are possible.  Monitor updates.

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3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED.  Locally heavy thunderstorms are possible today into Wednesday night.  Some storms could produce torrential downpours.  There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms will tap into that moisture and produce heavy downpours.  A few reports of flash flooding will be possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  YES.   Temperatures may reach 90°F or higher today and into the weekend.  Peak heating is expected to occur on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? YES.    Heat index values are expected to approach and exceed 100 degrees this weekend.  Use caution in the heat.

Double click on this graphic to enlarge it.  Notice the Saturday and Sunday heat index values.

• Temperature and Humidity:

  The heat index factors in both the actual air temperature and the amount of moisture in the air (relative humidity). 
• Perceived Temperature:

  High humidity makes it harder for the body to cool itself through sweating, so the perceived temperature is higher than the actual temperature. 
• Heat-Related Illnesses:

  When the heat index is high, the risk of heat-related illnesses, such as heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke, increases, especially with prolonged exposure to the heat or physical activity. 
• Shade vs. Sunlight:

  The heat index is typically calculated for shaded areas. Exposure to direct sunlight can further increase the perceived temperature. 

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   A few showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.
•   A stronger system is expected to bring a threat of severe weather to the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Most likely centered on Wednesday afternoon and night.
•   Hot and muggy this weekend.  It should finally be dry Friday through Sunday.
•   Heat index values are expected to occasionally exceed 100 degrees this weekend.

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Good day, everyone.

A few more days of unsettled weather ahead of us.  Then, some quiet weather.

Showers and thunderstorms moved across the region yesterday and overnight.

They were mostly below severe levels.  There was one low-end warning in western Kentucky.  No damage was reported.

Some locations picked up more than three inches of rain yesterday.  That was the exception vs the rule.  Most areas received quite a bit less than that.  Some remained mostly dry.  Typical for the middle of June.  A wide range of rain totals.

Today will be warm and humid.  Nothing extreme.  Normal summer weather.

We will have a few showers and thunderstorms.  The coverage today will not be as great as it was yesterday.

That is the good news.  Where thunderstorms occur, they could produce heavy downpours.

The bad news is that we have more heavy showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

I am monitoring the threat of severe weather tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The Storm Prediction Center has increased our risk to a level three across portions of the region.  A level two everywhere else.

Here is the Wednesday severe weather outlook.  Orange is the level three threat zone (the highest on this graphic).

At this time, the peak concern appears to be in the afternoon and evening.

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The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail.  A low-end tornado risk, as well.

Wind shear will be modest, but sufficient for severe weather.  Instability should be sufficient for severe weather development.

At this time, the tornado risk appears low, but perhaps not zero.  Any time you have severe thunderstorms, you have to monitor the tornado threat, as well.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms may linger into Thursday, but we should see less coverage than in recent days.

At this time, Friday through Sunday is shaping up dry and hot.  Perhaps Monday and Tuesday, as well.  I did include a slight chance of thunderstorms early next week, but hopefully that won’t be an issue.

It will be hot and muggy Friday into Sunday.  Highs will pop above 90 degrees in many locations.  Heat index values of 95 to 105 degrees are likely.

A summer weekend!

Know the signs of heat illness.

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Let’s examine the guidance rainfall probabilities.

What is the rainfall probability for each 12 hour period (day and night).

This will give you a general idea for planning purposes.

Tuesday (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Tuesday night (7 PM to 7 AM)

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Wednedsay (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Wednesday night (7 PM to 7 AM)

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Thursday (7 AM to 7 PM)

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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NAM 3K model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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 FVS model..

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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