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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning today and Tuesdsay. Isolated lightning possible Wednesday and another chance Sunday and Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microburst winds. These type of winds can develop with little or no warning from the NWS. THey tend to be isolated in nature and can be as small as one or two blocks.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours. These downpours could temporarily cause local water issues.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will range from the upper 90s to lower 100s Thursday through Sunday.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? UNLIKELY.
8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday through Monday night: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Southerly winds will make for humid conditions today through Tuesday with daily shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly in the afternoon hours. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s through Tuesday. Good dispersion will result from stronger transport winds today and on Tuesday. Dry weather is expected mid to late week with mid-90s highs.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Monday Forecast: Parlty sunny. Hot. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 11 am.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Hot weather conditions. Use care, as always. Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson weather radars.
UV Index: 10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered evening thunderstorms. A slight chance of thunderstorms late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson weather radars.
Moonrise: 4:18 PM
Moonset: 2:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Forecast: Parlty sunny. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the PM hours.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86 to 92
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson weather radars.
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Tuesdsay Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms. Mainly during the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson weather radars.
Moonrise: 5:21 PM
Moonset: 2:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast wind 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:27 PM
Moonset: 3:18 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Hot weather into the weekend. Hottest days will be Wednesday through Sunday.
- Scattered thunderstorms today and tomorrow. A chance Wednesday, as well. Some storms could be intense with high wind and small hail. Lightning and downpours, as well.
- Watching a cold front late in the weekend and early next week.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
The primary weather story continues to be the heat and high dew points. High dew points make it feel muggy outside. Some people call this humidity.
The high dew points will be with us all week into the weekend. Dew points will range from the middle 60s to middle 70s.
Peak heating and highest heat index values will be away from clouds and thunderstorms.
Speaking of thunderstorms, there will be scattered showers and storms on radar today and tomorrow. Perhaps Wednesday, as well.
Peak thunderstorm chances will likely be today and this evening.
Some of the thunderstorms could trigger the NWS to issue severe thunderstorm warnings. I don’t expect a lot of severe weather, but this time of the year can produce intense storms.
All of that heat energy has to go somewhere. When storms form, they can produce isolated microbursts. They bursts of winds can exceed 50 mph and cause tree damage. We had a couple of them yesterday. We could have some more today and tomorrow.
The most intense storms could also produce isolated hail.
Again, we aren’t looking at a severe weather outbreak, but it would not surprise me if some warnings were issued.
Any severe threat would be very isolated.
Storms will also produce torrential downpours. Summer gully-washers.
Peak chances of precipitation will be this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. I can’t rule out a few remaining storms Wednesday, as well.
The chances will wane, however, as we push into Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
Heat index values today and tomorrow will mostly be in the 90s.
Heat index values Wednesday through Sunday will likely pop into the upper 90s to lower 100s. It will be muggy and miserable for those who must work outside. Take care. Take breaks. Hydrate.
Heat Safety
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the FV3 Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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