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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
A thunderstorm complex may impact portions of southeast Missouri early Saturday morning. If that happens then the chance of rain will be a bit higher over that area (early in the day). More clouds, as well.
I have general thunderstorms in the region tomorrow.
I will keep an eye on our far northern counties. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined them for a risk of a few intense storms. More likely, north of our local area. Close enough to warrant monitoring.
CAMPING FORECAST. This will vary area-wide. Please see the area by area forecast further down in the blog.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A small chance today over southeast Missouri. Scattered chances Friday through Sunday. Many areas may remain dry. A higher chance of lightning late Sunday night into Monday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A small chance of severe weather over the far northern portions of southern Illinois Friday/Friday night. Chances of severe weather Saturday and Sunday are low. A higher chance of severe weather may materialize Monday/Monday night area-wide as a cold front arrives.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Any thunderstorms that do develop could produce locally heavy rain.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 Friday and Saturday.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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June 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Monitor southeast Missouri.
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM over southeast Missouri (if any at all)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° / SE MO 93° to 96° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Monitor southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:22 PM
Moonset: 12:58 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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June 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96° / West KY 94° to 96° / NW TN 94° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be highest near the I64 corridor of southern Illinois (northern counties) and then along the Indiana/Kentucky State line.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Scattered far north.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most areas. Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 1:28 PM
Moonset: 1:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Dry for most areas. A chance of thunderstorms over our northern counties (same as Friday night). Elsewhere, chances of storms will remain low.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Scattered far north.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 94° / South IL 92° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 8 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most areas. Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Most likely dry over much of the region. I will monitor the I64 corridor of southern Illinois towards Evansville for a couple of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most areas.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:37 PM
Moonset: 1:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadway and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 PM
Moonset: 2:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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June 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 1 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 5:01 PM
Moonset: 2:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Click the images to enlarge them.
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CLICK TO ENLARGE GRAPHICS
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 19th: A few storms could be intense near the I64 Corridor Friday. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday area-wide. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Hotter weather returns. Muggier.
- Monitoring a thunderstorm complex today (southeast Missouri).
- Low-end thunderstorm chances tonight into Sunday night.
- Increasing thunderstorm chances Monday and Monday night. Some could be severe.
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Weather advice:
Watch out for hot and muggy conditions. Uncomfortable outside.
A few thunderstorms are possible into Sunday. Many will remain dry. Lightning is the primary concern.
A couple of storms could be intense Friday/Friday night over our far northern counties.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday/Monday night area-wide.
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Discussion
I lowered shower and thunderstorm chances through Sunday.
We do have a few items to watch.
The first item is a complex of thunderstorms coming out of Iowa. I can’t rule out this clipping our western counties in southeast Missouri later this morning and afternoon.
Overall, confidence is not all that great that it will impact any of my forecast counties.
Otherwise, a warm and increasingly humid 48-hours ahead of us. Everyone will touch 90 or above today. Some areas will reach into the middle 90s.
Same for Friday. Hot and increasingly muggy. Dew points will be on the rise over the next 24 to 48 hours. That means muggier air.
A couple of thunderstorms are possible tomorrow and tomorrow night over our far northern counties. Mostly along and north of the I64 corridor. I will keep a close eye on it.
Some of those thunderstorms could be intense. The rest of the area has less than a 10% chance of thunderstorms.
Mostly dry Friday night into Sunday with a 20% or less chance of thunderstorms. The exception will be our far northern counties where thunderstorm chances may remain in the 20 to 30% range.
A strong cold front will push southward into the region Monday and Monday night. Strong thunderstorms are likely along this front. Monitor updates concerning severe weather.
Cooler and less humid air will arrive next Tuesday and Wednesday. Decent weather next week behind the strong cold front.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 17th through June 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers June 24ththrough June 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers June 28th through July 12th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
The June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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