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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday Night – Locally heavy showers and storms. Some flash flooding potential in areas that receive training storms. Rainfall totals will vary greatly. Some areas will pick up no rain and some areas will pick up more than 3″ of rain tonight. Monitor radars if you have concerns. Lows in the 70’s. Chance of rain will be 30%-40% over western Kentucky and 40%-60% for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy and warm/muggy. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Especially in a band from Missouri into Illinois. Same areas as recent days. Heavy rain likely in areas that receive precipitation. Tropical like rains. Highs in the 80’s. Variable winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars, but I would not cancel any plans.
Is severe weather expected? No.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% for west Kentucky and 40%-60% over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois – especially northern half of the region.
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms…especially in the evening. Best chances will be over Missouri and Illinois. Same as the last few days. Lows in the 70’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. But, check radars from time to time
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%–40% but possibly higher over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts.
Monitor updates on what happens Thursday into Friday. Possible flash flood situation for parts of the region.
Thursday – Increasing cloud. Depending on how close Bob is to the region will determine rain chances. At least a 30%-40% chance. Could be higher if the remnants move in faster. Highs in the 80’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather, but monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.
Thursday night – Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some locally heavy rain possible. Lows in the 70’s. Gusty southeast winds at 10-25 mph with higher gusts possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts.
Friday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Gusty winds at times from the east/southeast at 10-25 mph. Gusts above 25 mph possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.
Saturday and Sunday: Right now it appears some storm chances may remain with us on Saturday and perhaps again Sunday night.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Scattered storms on Wednesday into Friday
2. Main story is Tropical Storm Bill
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Our warm and humid weather continues. A tropical like air-mass has been parked over our region for the last 3-5 days. Each day and night there have been scattered showers and heavy thunderstorms in the region. The forecast, for the past 5 days, was for the bulk of the rain to be over Missouri and Illinois. That has certainly been the case for most of this event.
Here are the rainfall totals from the last two days. Missouri and Illinois are the big winners. Click image for a larger view.
Wednesday will bring more of the same. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms for the region. Once again, where storms occur they could be heavy. The best chance will be over Missouri and Illinois. A band of heavier rain is likely to occur and this is connected to Tropical Storm Bill.
Let me show you that on the high resolution WRF model from weatherbell.com
See that band extended from Texas into Missouri and Illinois? If that occurs then locally heavy rain is a good bet along where the precipitation moves over the same areas. I drew a red arrow pointing out the band. That is not the direction of movement.
This is for Wednesday morning before 7 am
Moving forward through the day on Wednesday
Then on Thursday at noon. You can see the system slipping into our region. How fast it moves will determine how high precipitation chances should be on Thursday. The bulk of the rain will be east of the center and perhaps northeast.
And finally on Thursday around 10 pm at night. The system is slowing move northeast and east into the Missouri Valley. Again, some debate on how fast Bill does or does not move. Keep that in mind.
Temperatures will range from the middle to upper 80’s where clouds linger to around 90 degrees elsewhere. Muggy air, as well. Rinse and repeat from the last few days.
The big story, of course, is Tropical Storm Bill. We have been talking about this potential since June 1st! That is a long heads up. The pattern has favored something like this happening.
The National Hurricane Center named Bill on Monday night (late). The system is moving through Texas and will continue to track north and eventually northeast. Very heavy rains can be expected along the path of the system.
There will also be the risk of short lived tornadoes on the northeast and east side of the system…perhaps southeast side.
Here is the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center
A few questions remain for our region.
My forecast has been for the heaviest rains to move from south west and south central Missouri into eastern parts of Missouri and then Illinois and Indiana.
A few models try to move this thing further south. Any shift in the path will change expected rainfall totals. Keep that in mind.
Rainfall totals of 2-4″ will occur along and north and east of the systems path. Some spots will exceed 4″. Flash flooding will be possible along its path.
And, again there will also be a chance for a few strong storms and even short lived tornadoes. The highest threat for severe weather will be each afternoon with some heating from the sun. If the system moves through at night we would see less of a severe weather risk vs it moving through in the afternoon.
As far as sensible weather conditions for our local area…
Precipitation will flow into the region by later on Thursday night into Friday. Moving in from the west and southwest. Locally heavy rain will be possible, especially over parts of Missouri and Illinois.
The highest rainfall totals will likely be from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Perryville, Missouri and then into parts of southern Illinois. Most likely from Carbondale northward. Mt Vernon stands a good chance at seeing some big rain totals. Again, if the track shifts then so will the above forecast..
Areas south and east of there will likely experience a trailing line of showers and thunderstorms. Some possibly on the heavy side.
The heaviest rains may miss far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. But, monitor updates. This is not set in stone.
Here is the highest resolution model and its track for the system. The lower right image is the future-cast radar. Can you see the swirl of the system?
Remember the model above showed it moving in on Thursday. Other models bring it into our region late Thursday night into Friday night. Keep this in mind, some debate on the timing.
This first image is for Friday at 1 pm. Again, the lower right is the future-cast radar.
This next image is for 7 pm on Friday. You can see the system moving into our region. This could be an issue if it moves through during the day. The risk for a few severe storms would increase a little bit. Not the best severe weather setup. But, it is a tropical system and occasionally these do produce short lived tornadoes.
The trend in the data is to slow the system down a little bit. Yesterday it appeared that maybe the bulk of the event would be on Thursday into Thursday night. Now it appears to be more like a Friday system. Still some time for tweaking the forecast.
Monitor updates. Flash flood watches have already been issued for parts of Missouri and Illinois. Additional counties may need to be added.
Watches and warnings map – click here
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Another cold front around Sunday into Monday morning. Some storms possible.
2. The southeast ridge may nose back in next week with warmer weather (hot?)
Models indicate yet another cold front will enter our region on Sunday or Sunday night. This will likely trigger some additional showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be the main concern.
Right now it appears we may dry out for the early part of next week. Then a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build back into the region. IF this happens then we will likely see more hot weather. So much for below normal temperatures. Doesn’t seem to be in the cards, yet again.
A couple of models show storms on Monday. Right now we will put that into the watch category.
Here is the ridge of high pressure on the 500 mb map. You can see the little H’s and the closed isobar. Image is from wright-weather.com
And the temperature forecast map for next Wednesday. The purple colors represent 90’s
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals along the path of Bill will be quite high. Expect storm totals to exceed 3″ in some counties with local amount greater than 4″-5″. The exact track of Bill will be key to rainfall totals.
Here is the latest NOAA rainfall outlook. You can see some very heavy totals along the path of Tropical Storm Bill. Also, notice the sharp gradient with Bill. This is why the path is key to totals. Any shift will change the forecast.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some thunderstorms possible. Storms should remain below severe levels.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Some strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Some strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms possible. Severe risk appears low, but not zero
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – A few thunderstorms possible. Storms should remain below severe levels.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
My main concern will be some flash flooding with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. Rainfall totals will likely exceed 3″ in some counties as the system moves into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Local amounts greater than 4-5″ will be possible.
Needless to say, this will cause some flooding problems.
Otherwise, the normal concerns with thunderstorms. Lightning and gusty winds.
I will need to monitor the tornado potential with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill. Sometimes these systems can produce a few short lived tornadoes on the east and southeast side of the system.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast continues to be the track of Bill. Any shift in the track will change the rainfall totals forecast for our region. I have been painting the heaviest totals from southwest Missouri and south central Missouri into eastern Missouri and then into parts of Illinois and Indiana. Perhaps are western and northern counties. But, some data shifts the system further south and tracks it into western Tennessee.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
