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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Yes. Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday. I will monitor next Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Monitor. We may approach it by Friday and Saturday.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? Yes. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Readings will reach 80 to 83 degrees.
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Monday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Tuesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Wednesday WBGT (F): N/A° No concerns.
Thursday WBGT (F): 77° No concerns.
Friday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour if working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 81° Take 15 minute breaks each hour if working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 80° Take 15 minute breaks each hour if working or exercising in direct sunlight.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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June 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Patchy morning fog near rivers. Partly to mostly sunny. A slight chance of a shower over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. Smaller chances over Illinois and Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Slightly higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None over most of the area. A few wet roadways and lightning (mainly MO/TN). Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. A small chance of showers over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:24 AM
Moonset: 3:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Patchy AM fog. Mostly sunny. A few fair weather clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 62° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:49 AM
Moonset: 4:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:16 AM
Moonset: 4:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds are possible. Hot. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 5:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:21 AM
Moonset: 7:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent.
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June 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:01 AM
Moonset: 8:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Moonrise: 5:48 AM
Moonset: 8:59 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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What is the UV index?
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- Heat returns later this week. We may top 90 degrees Thursday and Friday.
- Monitoring shower/storm chances this coming weekend.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 22nd. Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible this coming weekend. A few storms could be intense.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated June 15, 2020
No major concerns today through Friday. I am watching an increasing chance of thunderstorms over the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures will also rebound into the upper 80s and lower 90s Wednesday onward.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warming trend.
- Monitoring weekend rain chances.
I was not exactly happy with the weekend forecast. Both Saturday and Sunday delivered several rounds of thunderstorms to some of my forecast counties.
The shower and thunderstorm activity was widespread late Saturday night into Sunday from southeast Illinois into western Kentucky. The system was quite a bit stronger than projected. Thus, rain coverage was quite extensive in some areas.
A few locations picked up more than an inch of rain.
Much of the area had a wonderful weekend. Just not everyone.
Sunday’s temperatures were a bit tricky to forecast. Look at this spread. There were 60s over our northeastern counties. It was over 90 degrees in the Missouri Bootheel.
Clouds and rain made all the difference in some locations. Click to enlarge the image.
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There will be a small chance of showers Monday across southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. Lower chances over southeast Illinois and extreme western Kentucky. Most of the region will remain dry and mild.
A few of those showers may linger into tonight.
You can see that boundary on the morning satellite view. From northwest to south/southeast.
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The main weather story over the coming days will be a warming trend. Then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms this coming weekend.
Highs are going to rise into the 90s by Thursday and Friday.
Saturday and Sunday high temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and shower chances. That would shave off a few degrees.
Let me show you some of the model projections.
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The EC is showing upper 90s by the weekend. I have discounted this. I do not see temperatures rising into the upper 90s.
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The GFS model is a bit lower than the EC. It is likely too low for both Thursday and Friday. I have highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
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Here is what the final forecast numbers look like.
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For those planning their weekend outdoor activities, you might want to monitor updates.
A cold front will push into the region. That will bump into this warm and humid air. That will set the stage for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps numerous if a complex develops.
The concern would be Friday night into Sunday.
For now, I have rain chances hovering around 40% to 50%. I suspect there will be adjustments as confidence increases on the exact details.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precipitation through Sunday.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 15th through June 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers June 22nd through June 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers June 26th through July 9th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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June temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
Precipitation outlook
July temperature departures
Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
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