Thursday Update: Posted at 10 AM
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail. Strong winds possible with storms.
Is severe weather expected? Yes. A few storms could produce damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars. There will be some storms in the region.
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Live radars ~ click here
Live lightning data ~ click here
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June 15, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms likely during the morning hours. A chance for afternoon thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Marginal risk that a few storms could become severe with damaging winds. Hail and tornado threat will be low. Heavy rain and lightning.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case rain is widespread.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the evening.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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June 16, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms. Hot and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL 88 to 94 KY 86 to 94 TN 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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June 17, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Hot and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL 88 to 92 KY 88 to 92 TN 88 to 92
Winds: South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars. Have a backup plan in mind in case thunderstorm coverage is greater.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible during the evening, then showers and thunderstorms increasing from the north and west late at night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% early and 50% late IL ~ 30% early and then 50% late KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered during the evening. Increasing coverage possible from the north and west late at night. That would mean northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois late at night we could have an increase in coverage.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind
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June 18, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance for showers and thunderstorms along an incoming cold front.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL 86 to 90 KY 86 to 90 TN 86 to 90
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? A marginal risk for damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur
Is severe weather expected? A marginal risk for damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind.
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June 19, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Northwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 20, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 21, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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June 22, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL 84 to 88 KY 84 to 88 TN 84 to 88
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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June 23, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL 84 to 88 KY 84 to 88 TN 84 to 88
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday night through Sunday night: Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Sunday evening. A few storms could become severe with damaging winds. The overall severe weather risk is small, but not zero. Monitor the day to day forecast details at the top of the blog.
Any of the storms that form could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning. The more intense storms could also produce small hail.
Monday through Thursday of next week: Severe weather is not anticipated. Uncertainties surround thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Monitor updates. Perhaps some lightning.
Severe Weather Probabilities for tonight and Thursday
Click to enlarge images
Tonight
Thursday
Weather Analysis for the coming week:
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
Are you enjoying the summer heat? It is a bit much for some. Too muggy. I guess that is the price we pay for living in this region of the United States.
We will have thunderstorm chances over the coming days. It is tricky attempting to forecast exactly who will and who will not end up under a gully washer. This is the nature of the beast during the summer months. Thunderstorms can be random in coverage.
If you end up underneath a thunderstorm then you can expect gusty winds, cloud to ground lightning, heavy downpours, and perhaps pea size hail. The risk for severe weather is low, but not zero. A few reports of damaging wind will be possible over the coming days. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely. Monitor any watches and warnings that may have to be issued.
A stronger disturbance arrives in the area Wednesday night and Thursday. This should enhance thunderstorm chances. I increased the probability for rain during this time period.
Another disturbance will push through the region on Saturday and Sunday. This will cause rain chances to once again increase. Perhaps the greatest chance will be on Sunday. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday. This could enhance rain chances. A few strong to even severe storms will be possible along the front. Damaging wind is the main concern.
I would not cancel any plans over the coming days. I would, however, recommend that you keep a close eye on radars. Have alternative plans in case it does rain on your picnic.
Rainfall totals between now and Sunday night will range from 0.00″ to over two inches. Typical summer rains. Hit and miss. If we were to have an MCS then the rain would be more widespread. That is uncertain, at this time.
There is a marginal risk that a few storms could become severe on both Thursday and Sunday. The main concern will be damaging wind gusts. Monitor updates, as always.
The heat will continue through Sunday, as well. Daily high temperatures in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Muggy, as well. Dew points will remain the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Ick weather. Florida humidity. Air you wear. Summer air. Does that cover the bases?
Dew point forecast for 7 pm Wednesday night
Dew point forecast for 7 am on Thursday morning
Dew point forecast for 4 pm Thursday
Dew points control how your body feels. The higher the dew point the muggier it will feel.
Don’t forget our outdoor friends during this heat wave.
Summer rain probabilities. What you should know
We are entering a summer pattern. Air-mass thunderstorms are common in our region during the months of June through August. Thunderstorm probabilities are often 20% to 30%. What does that mean? It normally means a 100% that someone in the area will receive a thunderstorm. Most areas, however, will remain dry.
Weather forecasting, during the summer months, can be difficult to predict county by county. Mainly because of the random nature of air-mass thunderstorms.
They tend to dot radar, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. This is because the sun heats the ground and that causes air to rise. Cumulus clouds will form if you have sufficient rising motion. Those Cumulus clouds turn into Cumulonimbus clouds. Cumulonimbus clouds are thunderstorms.
These storms can drop an inch of rain in less than fifteen minutes. I call them gully washers. Meanwhile, your neighbor barely receives a sprinkle.
If you have lived in our region, any amount of time, then you are familiar with these types of thunderstorms. Some meteorologists call them air-mass thunderstorms. Others call them popcorn thunderstorms (because they dot radar).
Occasionally these thunderstorms will produce pockets of wind damage. Downburst winds can exceed 60 mph over small areas. They also produce frequent cloud to ground lightning. If they are slow moving then isolated flash flooding will result.
So the next time you plan an outdoor event and there is a 20% chance for thunderstorms, remember what that 20% actually means.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
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If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
