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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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June 13, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible before 9 pm. Heavy rain where storms occur. Small risk of storms after 9 pm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Live radars ~ click here
Live lightning data ~ click here
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June 14, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms. Best chance will be after 11 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL 88 to 94 KY 88 to 94 TN 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 22 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk for high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a back up plan during the afternoon hours. Check radars.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. We may have a line of storms moving in from the St Louis area. That would enhance rain chances for Missouri and Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail. Strong winds possible with storms.
Is severe weather expected? Yes. A few storms could produce damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
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June 15, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL 85 to 90 KY 85 to 90 TN 85 to 90
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail. Strong winds with storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Marginal risk that a few storms could become severe with damaging winds. Hail and tornado threat will be low. Heavy rain and lightning.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case rain is widespread.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few scattered showers and storms possible in the evening.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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June 16, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. Hot and humid. I will be monitoring a thunderstorm complex well to our northwest. If it were to move into our area then rain chances would increase.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL 88 to 94 KY 86 to 94 TN 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible. I will once again be monitoring for an MCS to our northwest. An MCS is a thunderstorm complex. These are typical during the summer months. Forecasting them can be tricky, at best. Rain chances would increase if the complex moved into the area.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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June 17, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Hot and humid. Once again I will be monitoring for any MCS’s in the region. These enhance rain chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL 88 to 92 KY 88 to 92 TN 88 to 92
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars. Have a back up plan in mind in case thunderstorm coverage is greater.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind
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June 18, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance for showers and thunderstorms along an incoming cold front.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL 86 to 90 KY 86 to 90 TN 86 to 90
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Marginal risk for damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur
Is severe weather expected? Marginal risk for damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Have a plan B in mind.
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June 19, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Northwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 20, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 21, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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June 22, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated storms are possible. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy downpours are possible.
Wednesday through Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day. There will be some days with greater thunderstorm coverage, but confidence is not all that great on the exact timing. Monitor the day to day forecast details at the top of the blog.
I will be monitoring a thunderstorm complex on Wednesday night. This complex would push southward from central and eastern Missouri and central Illinois. It may move into some of my local forecast counties. Monitor updates in case some of the storms become severe. High winds is the main concern. Northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois would be the most likely area of concern.
A few storms could become severe on Thursday, as well. High winds will be the main concern.
Some storms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. The main concern will be damaging winds. Monitor updates.
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Weather Analysis for the coming week:
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
Welcome to summer in the Ohio Valley. Hot and humid. Daily high temperatures in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. Heat index values in the 96 to 102 degree range. Ick weather. That is what I call it.
Winds over the coming days will mainly be from the south and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Stronger winds will occur near thunderstorms.
I won’t lecture you on heat safety rules, but use care. Don’t forget our outdoor friends. Freshen those water bowls.
Don’t forget grandmother (not necessarily in that order)
Know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke
Looking ahead:
No real change in the weather forecast into Sunday. We will have random thunderstorms popping up during the heat of the day. These storms can produce heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, pea size hail, and gusty winds. The risk for severe weather through Sunday is fairly small, but perhaps not zero. I am monitoring Thursday and Sunday for a few severe thunderstorms. Wind being the main concern.
Dew points will mostly be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Those dew points combined with the heat is what causes it to feel muggy and oppressive. Typical summer-time weather for our region.
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Heat index values will be high this week, as well.
Here is the Wednesday heat index value map. Heat index values of 95 to 100 over much of the region. A few spots could top the 100 degree mark. It is uncomfortable to be outside when the heat index values are that high.
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Summer rain probabilities. What you should know.
We are entering a summer pattern. Let’s remember, so we are all on the same page, a 20% of storms means a 100% for someone in the area. Many will remain dry, but some will have heavy downpours with gusty winds and lightning.
A 20% of storms does not mean you should say the weatherman was wrong. The weatherman is wrong when it rains on a day with no chance of rain.
A chance of storms is a chance of storms. The summer months are extremely difficult to predict county by county when it comes to popcorn storms. They tend to dot the radar during the warm and humid months of June through August.
These storms can drop an inch of rain in less than fifteen minutes. I call them gully washers. Meanwhile, your neighbor barely has a sprinkle.
They can also produce isolated areas of high winds that can bring tree limbs down (with little or no official severe thunderstorm warning).
Find me on Twitter
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
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If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
