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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday night – Partly cloudy. A few scattered thunderstorms in the region. Especially over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (and mainly before 7 pm). Lows in the lower 70’s with south winds at 10 mph. Gusty winds in the evening.
Saturday – Some clouds. Warm and humid. A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain where storms do occur. Gusty winds near storms. Again, best chances might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case some storms form.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% except 40%-60% over western and northern counties.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-50 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy and warm. A few scattered thunderstorms possible. Lows will be in the lower 70’s with south and southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case some storms form.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Sunday – Partly sunny. Continued warm and humid. A 30%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms scattered in the region. Highs will be in the upper 80’s where cloud cover is thicker and perhaps lower 90’s elsewhere. Southerly winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case some storms form.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% for now. I will update as we move forward if it appears parts of the area will have a better chance than other areas.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-45 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows in the lower 70’s. Southerly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case some storms form.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Monday – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be heavy with gusty winds. Highs around 86 to 92 degrees. Southerly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A broken record forecast? Scattered storms over the coming days (week)
2. Lot of warm and humid air (summer feel to the atmosphere)
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Bottom line…
Unsettled weather into next week. Warm and humid. Periods of showers and thunderstorms scattered in the area. Better chances perhaps by Monday and Monday night.
Well, I hope you are ready for a summer-like weekend. Warm temperatures combined with humid conditions will make it fell like early summer. I suppose it is that time of the year!
If you have outdoor activities then I would throw an umbrella in the back of the car. There will be some thunderstorms on radar over the coming days. This does not appear to be a wash out for the weekend. It appears to be 30%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will approach our region over the next 48 hours. Showers and storms will form along the front. There will also be some upper level disturbances moving through the region. All of this means that some storms will pop up from time to time.
Where storms do form they could produce locally heavy downpours, gusty winds, and quite a bit of lightning. The threat for severe weather appears minimal. You can never rule out an isolated down burst (high winds) with this type of setup. But, organized severe weather does not appear to be in the cards. So, that is good!
The best chances for showers and thunderstorms, over the coming days, will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. They will be closer to the cold front. Areas further southeast will have the least chances. This does not mean it won’t rain at your picnic if you live in the southeast counties (closer to Hopkinsville). It just means that chances are greater for Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Carbondale, Mt Vernon, and Shawneetown and areas north and west of there.
Broad-brushed 7 day rainfall numbers. Just look at that heavy stream of tropical moisture coming up from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy and widespread rainfall for a large segment of the United States over the coming 7 day period. This will need to be monitored as we pull into next week. Our region could have several rounds of heavy storms, as well.
That dark band from Kansas into central Illinois and central Indiana represents 4 to 7+ inches of rain. Lot of rain over parts of the corn and soy bean belts. Image is from weatherbell.com
I have been telling you for the last couple of weeks that we need to keep a very close eye on the tropics. Tropical moisture could very well be swept into our region over the coming 7-10 days. I should say…tropical moisture will be swept into our region. It already is moving in. A long stream of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
I also continue to watch the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development later this week. If that occurs then we will need to monitor the track of the moisture.
Here is the Saturday morning QPF numbers from the WPC (branch of NOAA). Just look at the very heavy rainfall totals over the next 7 days. Again, I keep mentioning this and now others are talking about it, as well. It is a concern. Exactly where the heaviest rains set up is still in question.
Temperatures will vary a little bit. Depending on cloud cover…most areas will top out in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. Above normal temperatures into early next week are a good bet. Above normal precipitation appears possible between now and next Friday, as well. A lot of that will depend on where these weak disturbances move. If they move over our region then each one could spark showers and thunderstorms.
Aerial coverage of storms might be greater next week. We will see. This was the summer forecast. A battle between the southeast ridge and the northern trough. When the southeast ridge wins we are hot and semi-dry. When the trough to the north wins out then we are wetter than normal. The southeast ridge has been winning over the past week.
Saturday’s high temperature forecast
Sunday’s high temperature forecast
Monday’s high temperature forecast
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Our warm weather may continue into all of next week. So it appears.
2. Showers and thunderstorms next week could produce locally heavy rain in spots.
A fairly active pattern is forecast next week. We will have on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak upper level disturbances move over our region. Any storms that form will have plenty of moisture to work with in the atmosphere. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Pinning down the day by day forecast will be tricky this far out. If one disturbance is stronger than another then chances will go up for storms. This will need to be monitored as we move forward.
Right now it appears that Monday through Wednesday night should bring 40%-60% chances for thunderstorms. If a complex of storms forms then the chances might go above that. Thursday into Friday should see lower chances. Perhaps in the 30%-40% range. Long way off for % numbers, but that is how it looks right now.
Perhaps a cooling trend the last 5 days of June. Somewhere in there a cold front should sweep into the region. We will see if that happens.
Let’s look at dew points for the coming 7 days. Remember that dew points are a great way to measure moisture in the air. When you have dew points in the 68 to 75 degree range then you are wearing that air. Jim Rasor calls it “air you wear”
What are dew points? Well, another great question. A lot of people confuse humidity and dew points. I like to use dew points to measure moisture in the air. This is the better way, actually. To learn more about dew points…click here
VERY moist air
If a slow moving thunderstorm interacts with this atmosphere then some spots could quickly pick up enough rain to cause flash flooding. This will need to be monitored each day over the coming 7-10 days. I have witnessed patterns like this produce 1-4″ of rain in a matter of hours. Small areas end up with flash flooding. It only takes one slow moving thunderstorm to cause major problems with heavy rainfall totals. And, on another note, these are nearly impossible to predict. Where a slow moving thunderstorm parks itself, in this type of atmosphere, will be a now-cast. Meaning we won’t know until it occurs.
All that can be said is that the pattern favors locally heavy rain over the coming 7-10 days.
Let’s look at Saturday night’s dew points. Can you see how the moisture is streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. Remember that I warned about this subject over the past week or two. A LOT of high content moisture coming out of the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.
Parts of northern Illinois have picked up 5-8″ of rain over the past week, because of this air.
Images are from wright-weather.com
Now let’s pull ahead to Monday’s dew points. Just look at those high numbers. Humid air. You can picture in your head the stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to Toronto Canada.
Then on Wednesday
And finally let’s pull way ahead to next weekend. These are high numbers for dew points. If we have a cold front or upper level disturbance in the region then it will have PLENTY of moisture to work with. That means locally heavy rainfall. Any pockets of slow moving storms could produce 1-4″ of rain in a matter of hours. Again, let’s hope we avoid that. But be aware of the set-up.
The latest analog charts are out. They continue to show above normal temperatures as we move into next week. This could be coupled with above normal precipitation, as well.
Let’s look at the very latest numbers.
Here is the temperature forecast map centered around June 17th-21st
The red and orange colors indicate where above normal temperatures are expected based on the current weather pattern.
Here are the precipitation numbers. Green represents where above normal precipitation would be favored. Not a guarantee. With this type of pattern some counties could pick up inches of rain and other counties could remain dry. If you have lived here long enough then you will know that.
As we pull forward into the following week. This map is centered on June 24th. You can see that once again the odds favor above normal temperatures. There was a bit of a shift in the data to center the warmer than normal temperatures east of our region. Is this a trend or a blip? I will watch the data.
As far as precipitation goes…centered on the 22nd through the 26th. The analog years favor above normal precipitation in our region, once again.
The hope is that between those two weeks everyone will pick up 0.75″-2.00″ of rain. That might be a bit of a stretch with the way thunderstorms form this time of the year. It is more difficult to get a sweeping cold front with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the middle of June. We would need an MCS. That is a complex of storms that forms and covers a very large area. If that happens then everyone could pick up some decent rainfall.
Odds do favor rainfall over the coming 2 week period. Hopefully this will pan out.
The long range charts show below normal temperatures for July. We will see if that happens. The first week of June was mostly below normal in the temperature department and then the past week has been above normal.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Once again we will be situated under a setup where some locations will pick up locally heavy rain and other areas will remain dry.
The best chance for widespread rainfall totals will likely be somewhere over south central and southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and northern parts of southern Illinois. Say from Poplar Bluff towards Mt Vernon and then over towards White County, Illinois. Areas south and east of there will have a chance for rain and storms, but perhaps not as great of coverage.
Rainfall totals will range from no rain at all in some spots to well over 1″ in the heavier storms. Typical late spring and early summer type precipitation pattern.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Thunderstorms this time of the year can always produce an isolated damaging wind gust. Heavy downpours and lightning are typical for storms during June. If a storm does not move much then isolated pockets of flash flooding can even occur.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
No major concerns. There could be some storms over the coming days. If you have outdoor events then keep that in mind. Lightning is always a concern for outdoor events, of course. Brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
There could be some gusty winds on lakes and rivers over the coming days.
Maybe keep an umbrella handy. Could be a few storms in the region. Not an all day rain.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the Saturday forecast will be whether or not your location picks up a heavy thunderstorm. Once again scattered storms will occur in the region. The most coverage will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Less coverage elsewhere. Any storms that form could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
