Morning update
Tuesday: Another summer day across the region. Hot and muggy with isolated storms.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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June 12, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Isolated storms possible, mainly before 9 pm. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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June 13, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Best rain chances will be after 12 pm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 94 IL 86 to 92 KY 88 to 92 TN 88 to 92
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Isolated storms could briefly approach severe levels.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm possible before 9 pm. Small risk after 9 pm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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June 14, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms. Best chance will be after 11 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 88 to 94 TN 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 22 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan during the afternoon hours. Check radars.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% before 12 am and 50% after 12 am IL ~ 40% before 12 am and 50% after 12 am KY ~ 30% before 12 am and 50% after 12 am TN ~ 40% before 12 am and 50% after 12 am
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars (esp during the evening hours)
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June 15, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL 85 to 90 KY 85 to 90 TN 85 to 90
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case rain is widespread.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few showers and storms possible in the evening.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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June 16, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Hot and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL 86 to 92 KY 86 to 92 TN 86 to 92
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly during the evening hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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June 17, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Hot and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL 88 to 92 KY 88 to 92 TN 88 to 92
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars. Have a back up plan in mind in case thunderstorm coverage is greater.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and heavy downpours. Lightning. Pea size hail
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
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June 18, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL 86 to 90 KY 86 to 90 TN 86 to 90
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms do occur
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 19, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Northwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 20, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a little cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 21, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated storms are possible. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy downpours are possible.
Tuesday through Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day. There will be some days with greater thunderstorm coverage, but confidence is not all that great on the exact timing. Monitor the day to day forecast details at the top of the blog.
Some storms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. I can’t rule out isolated severe thunderstorms. Organized/widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated. Monitor updates.
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Weather Analysis for the coming week:
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
Hot and humid weather will be with us through the upcoming weekend. Some of you asked for summer! You are receiving summer weather.
There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. This is especially true during the heat of the day.
An upper level disturbance will push through the region on Thursday and another one around Saturday/Sunday. This will help enhance rain chances. Monitor updated probabilities as they may change. This will be determined by the speed of each system passing through our region.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday into Sunday, then I would not change any of them. I would check radars and the latest day to day forecast numbers. Have a plan B in mind in case a shower or thunderstorm moves over your campsite, picnic, or wedding. These won’t be all day rains. Where it does rain, it could come down quite heavy. Typical for summer.
The overall severe weather risk is small, but not zero. A few reports of high winds can’t be ruled out. Downburst winds would me the main concern. Cloud to ground lightning is, of course, always a concern for ballgames and outdoor events.
Winds today through Sunday should be from the south and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Wind near storms will be stronger. That is normally the case.
Check out the heat. These are the high temperature maps through Saturday.
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Hot and humid.
If the warm air wasn’t enough, check out these dew point forecast numbers. Air you wear, as Jim Rasor says.
Here is the dew point scale.
Here are the forecast numbers from the GFS model guidance. Ick!
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Summer rain probabilities. What you should know.
We are entering a summer pattern. Let’s remember, so we are all on the same page, a 20% of storms means a 100% for someone in the area. Many will remain dry, but some will have heavy downpours with gusty winds and lightning.
A 20% of storms does not mean you should say the weatherman was wrong. The weatherman is wrong when it rains on a day with no chance of rain.
A chance of storms is a chance of storms. The summer months are extremely difficult to predict county by county when it comes to popcorn storms. They tend to dot the radar during the warm and humid months of June through August.
These storms can drop an inch of rain in less than fifteen minutes. I call them gully washers. Meanwhile, your neighbor barely has a sprinkle.
They can also produce isolated areas of high winds that can bring tree limbs down (with little or no official severe thunderstorm warning).
Find me on Twitter
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
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If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
