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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
** Remember, I will be off from work the 31st through June 8th. No blog during that time-period. **
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A chance of lightning Thursday late afternoon and night as a cold front brushes our northern counties. The chance will mainly be north of a line from Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Marion, Illinois, and then northeast north of Evansville, Indiana.
I am watchin early next week for a tropical disturbance moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico. It now appears this will stay mainly to our south and west. Perhaps moving into Texas. It is possible that it will spread at least a little moisutre northward into our region. I have slight chances of thunderstorms in the forecast for next week.
I will keep an eye on a cold front approaching from the north northwest late next week.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will keep an eye on Thursday night over our far northern counties as a complex of storms attempts to push southward. A few intense storms can’t be ruled out before they dissipate.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. High temperatures will rise into the 90s late this week and weekend. I can’t rule out some 100+ degree heat index values. Watching Sunday onward in particular.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday through Wednesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday night: 5. Medium risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Surface high pressure will lead to light winds and dry conditions through Thursday. A weak cold front may bring a few showers or storms to northern portions of the area Thursday night, then surface high pressure returns Friday and Saturday. South winds return Sunday and lead to a heat wave into next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:25 AM
Moonset: 12:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. More humid. Some clouds far north with a slight chance of thunderstorms. after 5 pm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all (far north)
Timing of the precipitation: After 4 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Some clouds far north with a chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Timing of the precipitation: Before 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 2 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:24 PM
Moonset: 12:54 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:21 PM
Moonset: 1:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- A bit warmer today.
- Watching a chance of thunderstorms Thursday night as a system brushes the region. Mainly our northern counties.
- Our first summer heat event begins late this week into next week with temperatures in the 90s.
- Heat index values may approach 100 Sunday.
- Watching tropical moisture early next week. Low confidence in the details.
- Watching a cold front late next week with showers and storms. Cooler drier air behind the front.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Yesterday was an amazing day. Perfect spring weather. I did not hear any complaints. The ground was able to dry out a bit. Some good news for farmers.
Today will be a tad warmer. Highs will reach into the 80s vs yesterday’s 70s. A little more humid, as well. Nothing extreme.
The weather will become increasingly hot and muggy tomorrow into next week. Widespread 90s are likely. Dew points will be on the rise, as well.
You will hear me mention dew points frequently during the summer months and during severe weather.
What are dew points? Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. They will slowly be on the rise as we move through the work-week.
A lot of people talk about humidity, but it is the dew point that makes the difference in how it feels outside.
Dew points will be quite comfortable today and tomorrow
Today’s dew points. Slightly higher than yesterdays.
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Thursday dew points. A bit higher.
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Friday dew points. Ick. Muggy air. A little lower over our northern counties along a boundary. But, higher dew points will slowly but surely be nudging northward. Sticky air. Notice the purple colors? Those are dew points in the 70s.
Those purple colors are pooling along a cold front that stalls in our region. It will eventually move back northward as a warm front.
Saturday dew points
By Sunday, the dew points will be high enough to produce heat index values of 98 to 104 degrees. Sunday delivering the greatest chance of seeing some 100+ heat index values.
High heat index values will continue into much of next week. As long as we avoid clouds and thunderstorms, then it will be hot and muggy.
Remember, the heat index is what your body responds to. We don’t tell you the heat index just because it sounds hotter! We tell you the heat index because it impacts your body. Outside work becomes increasingly more uncomfortable as dew points rise into the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Summer air. Air you wear. Uncomfortable.
Sunday heat index values.
These conditions won’t initially trigger a heat advisory or any National Weather Service products, but it is a good time to start thinking about heat safety.
Heat Safety
A cold front will push into the region Thursday night. This front will trigger severe thunderstorms across northern and northeastern Missouri and northern and central Illinois Thursday afternoon and evening.
THat line of storms iwll move southward with time. It may live long enough to bring some precipitation to our far northern counties. With time, it will rapidly weaken as it pushes into drier air and the ridge of high pressure.
The high resolution NAM 3K model shows that nicely.
You can see how fast it weakens. This is Thursday evening and night.
I continue to watch the Gulf of Mexico for the development of tropical disturbances.
The trend has been to shove the heavier rain south and west of our region.
The GFS model had been showing it moving into our region, but the EC model was showing it staying south and west.
The GFS model does not handle the tropics all that well. The EC has a better track record.
The latest WPC/NOAA forecast keeps our region dry through next Tuesday night. I can’t completely rule out some 10% to 20% chances of thunderstorms early next week, but confidence in precipitation remains low.
WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook through Tuesday night. You can see very heavy rain along the Gulf of Mexico with lower totals as you move northward.
Finally, I am watching a cold front late next week (after Thursday). The front will move in from the northwest and could bring a chnace of showers and thunderstorms.
If the front passes through the region, then cooler drier air will push back into the region. Briefly.
The chance of the cold front making it through the region with showers and thunderstorms is currently 40%. I will monitor trends.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the FV3 Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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