We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
Check out our sponsors! There are more on the right side bar of the page, as well. Be sure and let them know that you appreciate their sponsorship of the WeatherTalk daily weather bulletin.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday – Gusty winds today. Partly cloudy with a few scattered thunderstorms. Warm to hot. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Highs will depend on cloud cover for Friday. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph on lakes and rivers.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% over most of the area will slightly higher chances from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards White County, Illinois.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Friday night – Some clouds. A chance for some scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% but 40% over western and northern counties. From Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon perhaps has the highest chance
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Saturday – Some clouds. Warm and humid. A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain where storms do occur.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars in case some storms form.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% except 40%-60% over western and northern counties.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Saturday night and Sunday will bring some scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain where a storm does form. Gusty winds, as well. Lows in the lower 70’s and highs in the 80’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Weekend storm chances?
2. Warm and humid
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Welcome to the weekend!
We will have some scattered showers and thunderstorms right on into next week. An unsettled weather forecast for at least parts of the region. Some areas likely will once again miss out on the heavy rain totals. Some areas will make out like bandits with several inches of rain.
The best chance for widespread thunderstorm coverage will probably be from southern Missouri into parts of southeast and eastern Missouri and into parts of southwest Illinois. Perhaps somewhere along a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois and then one or two counties east and west of there. That is where the cold front will be placed over the coming days.
But, other locations in the region will also have 20%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day. I would not cancel a single plan. I would throw a rain jacket and umbrella in the car and be done with it.
Lightning is the main concern for storms. Locally heavy downpours. Gusty winds can always occur this time of the year…when thunderstorms form.
With this type of pattern we will likely have a wide range of rainfall totals. From no measurable rain to several inches.
Let’s look at the official rainfall forecast for the coming weekend into Monday morning. Again, some spots won’t pick up much rain. This is broad-brushed to give you an idea of expected totals over the region. Image is from weatherbell.com
Do you remember how I have been talking about the potential for very heavy rainfall over the coming days into next week, because of the tropics? You can see some of that moisture on this map. From Kansas into Iowa and Wisconsin. Lot of moisture to work with.
The 7 day rainfall map. Just look at all that moisture coming in from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico.
Future-cast radar picks up on some of the scattered showers and thunderstorms. With this type of pattern the models don’t do well with exact specifics of placement. But, we can glean an idea from these maps of perhaps where the greatest coverage will be located.
This first image is for Friday evening. You can see that line of rain and storms. That is near the cold front/boundary. That is the area of most concern. Near the cold front. That front will attempt to sag southward over the weekend.
Images are from weatherbell.com
Next we move forward to Saturday morning. Not much on radar…according to this model.
Next we move forward to Saturday evening. Some scattered storms in the region. The most coverage according to this model would be over Missouri into Illinois and parts of Indiana.
Pulling ahead to Sunday morning around 7 am. Still some showers and thunderstorms along the cold front/boundary.
By 1 pm on Sunday there continues to be scattered storms in the region. Bottom line…there will be some on and off storm chances into the weekend. But, not an all day rain for the region as a whole. Once again, some places may end up with no measurable rainfall while other areas pick up more than 1″.
Friday’s high temperature forecast
Saturday’s high temperature forecast
Sunday’s high temperature forecast
Monday’s high temperature forecast
What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather? I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it. For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
What are dew points? Well, another great question. A lot of people confuse humidity and dew points. I like to use dew points to measure moisture in the air. This is the better way, actually. To learn more about dew points…click here
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Warm weather into the end of the month?
2. Unsettled pattern with periodic potential for heavy rainfall
3. Severe weather risk appears small over the coming 7-10 days
I was thinking June would average below normal in the temperature department. That won’t happen. I was thinking it would be mostly above normal in the precipitation department. That has already verified in some counties (parts of southern Illinois have picked up 3-7″ of rain this month). Other areas remain a bit on the dry side for June.
The coming 7-10 day period will likely bring warm and humid conditions. Increasing moisture from the tropics will mean the possibility of locally heavy thunderstorms. There will need to be a trigger for widespread storms.
Periodic cold fronts will flirt with the area. When these fronts bump into the very warm and very moist air then you will see heavy thunderstorms form. Where these storms form there could be very heavy rainfall totals. Monitor updates as we move forward.
If a slow moving thunderstorm interacts with this atmosphere then some spots could quickly pick up enough rain to cause flash flooding. This will need to be monitored each day over the coming 7-10 days. I have witnessed patterns like this produce 1-4″ of rain in a matter of hours. Small areas end up with flash flooding. It only takes one slow moving thunderstorm to cause major problems with heavy rainfall totals. And, on another note, these are nearly impossible to predict. Where a slow moving thunderstorm parks itself, in this type of atmosphere, will be a now-cast. Meaning we won’t know until it occurs.
All that can be said is that the pattern favors locally heavy rain over the coming 7-10 days.
Let’s look at a few charts
This is the analog temperature forecasts for the next couple of weeks. The red and orange indicate where the highest chances are for above normal temperatures.
This first map is centered around the 18th of the month. Best chances for above normal temperatures will be over the Middle Atlantic region and the East Coast. But, we are in the red/orange, as well.
This next map is centered around the 21st of the month. If the models are correct then widespread above normal temperatures are possible.
This final map is centered around the very end of the month. Perhaps odds for above normal temperatures go down a bit? We will see. This could also be because of increase cloud cover and moisture. Once you get into the long long range then confidence decreases even more in verification.
As far as precipitation
Again, this is going to depend on triggers. Can we bring a cold front into the region? If so then very heavy rainfall totals can occur along a boundary or front. There will be no lack of moisture to work with in the atmosphere.
This first map is centered around the 18th (several days before and after)
The green represents where precipitation might end up being above normal
The next map (below) is centered around the 21st of June. Odds favor a wet pattern from Iowa into parts of Illinois and Indiana. Based on this map it appears there will be several cold fronts to our north during that time period. Will they work their way southward? That is really the question.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Once again we will be situated under a setup where some locations will pick up locally heavy rain and other areas will remain dry.
The best chance for widespread rainfall totals will likely be somewhere over south central and southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and northern parts of southern Illinois. Say from Poplar Bluff towards Mt Vernon and then over towards White County, Illinois. Areas south and east of there will have a chance for rain and storms, but perhaps not as great of coverage.
Another pocket of increase activity could be our southeast counties.
Rainfall totals will range from no rain at all in some spots to over 1″ in the heavier storms. Typical late spring and early summer type precipitation pattern.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Thunderstorms this time of the year can always produce an isolated damaging wind gust. Heavy downpours and lightning are typical for storms during June. If a storm does not move much then isolated pockets of flash flooding can even occur.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
No major concerns. There could be some storms over the coming days. If you have outdoor events then keep that in mind. Lightning is always a concern for outdoor events, of course. Brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
There could be some gusty winds on lakes and rivers over the coming days.
Maybe keep an umbrella handy. Could be a few storms in the region. Not an all day rain.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card over the coming days will center around whether or not your location finds itself parked under a locally heavy thunderstorms. There will be thunderstorms on radar, from time to time, on Friday into Sunday. Not expecting all day rain events. The best chances will be over our western and northern counties. But, just about anyone could pick up at least one or two showers or storms over the coming days. Typical for an early summer pattern.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
