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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
The rest of this afternoon and tonight – Mostly sunny this evening. Warm. Lows will be in the lower 70’s by Friday morning. Light southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 10%
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and warm. Small chance for a thunderstorm. Lows lower 70’s. South winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 10%
Friday – Partly cloudy with a few scattered thunderstorms. Warm to hot. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Highs will depend on cloud cover for Friday. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Friday night – Some clouds. A chance for some scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% but 60% over western and northern counties. From Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon perhaps has the highest chance
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Saturday – Some clouds. Warm and humid. A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will storms do occur.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars in case some storms form.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% except 40%-60% over western and northern counties.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Saturday night and Sunday will bring scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will a storm does form. Gusty winds, as well. Lows in the lower 70’s and highs in the 80’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thursday will be warm
2. What about some thunderstorm chances? Summer pattern?
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Did you enjoy the warm weather on Wednesday? It is a big warm and yes, these are above normal temperatures. This pattern will continue into Thursday and Friday.
With the warm temperatures will come increasing moisture values. Dew points will be on the rise. That means a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday into the weekend.
A cold front will sag southward from northern Missouri and Illinois over the weekend. How far south this front is placed has a significant impact on what happens with our weather over the coming days. The further south it sags…the better our chances for thunderstorms.
This means that our northern and northwestern counties will have the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms. But, everyone else is not out of the woods either. At least some scattered storms are possible over most of the region.
Here is the future-cast radar for Saturday. Can you see the feed from the Gulf of Mexico into the Central United States? Lot of humidity and high dew points to work with. We will have to see how coverage of storms goes on Friday night and Saturday. At least have an umbrella handy.
Late Saturday afternoon
Some scattered storms in and near our region
Let’s take a look at high temperatures over the coming days
Thursday high temperatures
Friday high temperature
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Increasingly moist flow returns by the end of the week into the next couple of weeks.
2. Tropical moisture is now starting to show up in the southwest U.S. and the southern U.S. This is all coming together to produce some big rain totals over parts of the corn belt and the southern U.S. We will need to monitor the trends.
3. Summer forecast…how are things looking. Should I flip for June?
If you have been reading the blog over the past week then you will know that I have been concerned about the potential of tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico interacting with some cold fronts and disturbances somewhere in the Central U.S.
The models are now showing that happening. The areas that the data indicates for the heaviest rains will extend from Kansas into northern Illinois and then along the Gulf of Mexico.
You can see that here on the GFS precipitation forecast map. Just look at the big totals over parts of the country.
The good news, for now at least, is that these big big numbers stay to our south and north and west. If the front sags further south next week then adjustments southward will need to be made. This is the rainfall forecast through next Wednesday morning.
The very high moisture values will also stream into our region. But, will it have a trigger to work with and produce heavy rainfall. It will absolutely have a trigger well to our north and somewhat along the Gulf of Mexico, as well. It is a disturbance or two that will cause the problems to our south.
The only question is what happens in the middle.
Rainfall totals of 5″-10″ will likely occur in some spots of the above mentioned areas. Kansas to northern Illinois and northern Indiana and along the Gulf of Mexico.
I am carefully watching the trends on the data to see if the high PWAT values can be tapped into our region. That would mean very heavy rainfall…in spots. Remember the other morning when 3″-7″ of rain fell over parts of southern Illinois? That is what can happen when high PWAT values interact with a cold front.
Monitor updates as we move forward.
Thunderstorms will be possible into next week. There is some debate about how far north a ridge of high pressure will push into our region. A ridge of high pressure typically shuts down rain chances and is responsible for hot temperatures.
Now, a ridge of high pressure looks like this on the 500 mb map. A ridge is just what you would expect. A hill of sorts. When that nudges into our region it shuts down most of the precip chances. Thunderstorms move along the edge of the ridge (you can see the energy denoted by the bright colors on the edge of the ridge)
We call that the ring of fire (where numerous heavy storms form). This is the Tuesday 500 mb map (18,000 feet aloft). This image is from wright-weather.com
Later next week the GFS model (which is hit and miss on its accuracy lately) flattens out the ridge. Things become more zonal. More west to east.
There will definitely be a battle brewing between the cold fronts sagging southward and the ridge of high pressure nosing northward. Whichever one wins will determine what happens locally to our weather.
I believe that June may end up with above normal temperatures. It appears very warm again next week. I thought June would bring mostly below normal temperatures. That does appear to be in jeopardy. We will see how it goes. Long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. Lower rate of accuracy.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major concerns for Thursday. Hot. Sunburn weather.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card for Thursday will be whether a few storms pop up over the Kentucky and Tennessee border counties. Isolated possible.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Thursday. With the exception of maybe a couple of isolated storms over our southern counties. I left the threat level at zero, but keep that in mind.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. A few storms possible.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. A few storms possible.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather is Not Anticipated. A few storms will be possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Thursday will bring mostly dry conditions. There is just a slight chance that a storm may pop up in the heat of the day. If this were to occur it would most likely be near our southern counties. Kentucky and Tennessee line. The chances are small. If a storm does pop up then it would drop heavy rain in isolated areas.
Friday into the weekend will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms. Especially true for our northern counties. Heavy rain is possible. Hard not to have heavy rain with the amount of moisture in the atmosphere.
Next week should bring increasing moisture, as well. Expect scattered storms.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
