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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
The rest of this afternoon and tonight – Mostly sunny with some patchy cumulus clouds. Warm. Temperatures by Wednesday morning will be in the upper 60’s. Light winds.
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Hot. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No problems.
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Wednesday night – Just a cloud here and there. Mild. Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. South winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a slight chance (10% or less) for a thunderstorm near the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Warm and humid. Highs well into the 80’s and lower 90’s. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday night – Partly cloudy with a slight chance (10% or less) for a thunderstorm. Warm with lows in the lower 70’s. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday – Partly cloudy with a few scattered thunderstorms. Warm to hot. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Highs will depend on cloud cover for Friday. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars in case some storms form.
Saturday and Sunday will bring a few thunderstorms. I would not cancel any plans. Monitor updates.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A warm Wednesday and Thursday with above normal temperatures
2. Humidity levels will increase through the week
3. What about the upcoming weekend and the tropics?
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I hope you enjoyed Tuesday’s nice weather. It was warm! Feels like late spring and early summer out there. But, it is June!
Temperatures will be above normal for the rest of the week. Expect daily highs well into the 80’s and maybe even some lower 90’s. Humidity levels will increase through the week. That means it will start to feel a bit more stuffy.
I am not expecting any precipitation on Wednesday or Thursday. A few models pop a thunderstorm or two near the Kentucky and Tennessee border on Thursday afternoon. I will keep an eye on it.
Otherwise, see the extended discussion below for weekend details.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Increasingly moist flow returns by the end of the week into the next couple of weeks.
2. What about the tropics? Where will all the moisture go?
3. Summer forecast…how are things looking
My main concern in the long range continues to be a lot of moisture coming into the U.S. from the Pacific tropics and from the Gulf of Mexico.
What I can’t resolve is what happens with the extremely high PWAT values that surge into the U.S. In order for the atmosphere to tap into that moisture it will need a focal point. That could be a cold front or some upper level disturbances. Also slow moving thunderstorms could dump a lot of rain in a short amount of time.
Will the high PWAT (moisture) values interact with one of those two in our region next week? Will it be further north or further south? That is what I am not sure about.
Wherever this occurs there will be some news worthy rainfall totals. I am closely monitoring the pattern. It is a bit unusual to have a pattern like this in early June.
June is known for flash flooding. It would not surprise me if someone in the United States has to deal with some flooding next week.
I am starting to zero in on these two areas for the heaviest rain. What happens in between? That will be key for our region.
Check out the official rainfall forecast for the coming 7 day period. Note the two tropically enhanced regions of moisture. LOT of rain will fall in some areas.
Expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms starting on Friday and continuing through next week.
For Friday into Sunday the chances will likely be in the 30%-40% range. Right now it does not appear to be an all day rain event. I would not cancel any plans. I would have someone monitor radars and lightning data if you have concerns for an event.
I am watching a stretch from south central Missouri into west central Illinois on Friday and Saturday. There could be some training thunderstorms. How far east will they track? This will need to be monitored.
Perhaps the best chances on Friday or Friday night will be our far northern counties. Then everywhere on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. We will have a front nearby our northern counties on Friday night. How far south the front sags is still questionable.
I think the further north you travel in the region the greater precipitation chances will end up being. That means areas along a line from Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois will have greater chances than say Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Those areas will have chances for storms, but not as great as areas to the north. I will keep an eye on each disturbance. Adjustments may be necessary.
Then Tuesday night and Wednesday again over our northern counties in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois might end up the hot spot for storms. Long way off. Lot of details to be worked out with thunderstorm complexes. They are typically hard to forecast 24 hours out…let along days in advance.
Overall the summer forecast is for normal to below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. But, we will be above normal through at least the weekend (for temperatures). Of course, long range forecasting is a bit of a roll of the dice. There are so many factors that come into play. Consider that parts of our region experienced 3″-7″ of rain on Monday. Other areas received no rain at all.
I am starting to believe that June will end up above normal in the temperature department. We will see how July ends up. The summer forecast will be scored from June through August. Definitely in jeopardy for the normal to below normal temperatures.
Some of the data for the rest of June is painting several rounds of above normal temperatures. This raises some questions as to the normal to below normal temperature forecast. I will continue to monitor this subject.
I am seeing several below normal temperature shots in July. We will see how it goes.
For now we are going to deal with above normal temperatures.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major concerns.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card for the coming days will be temperatures. Data indicates some upper 80’s possible. But, can someone hit 90 degrees again? That is the wild card.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Wednesday.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. A few storms possible.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. A few storms possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
I am not forecasting any rain for Wednesday or Thursday. The next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on Friday and Saturday/Sunday. Right now it appears the chances will be scattered. I will need to monitor the data for any thunderstorm complexes that might form.
Next week should bring increasing moisture, as well. Expect scattered storms.
Rainfall amounts will vary, as they always do in June. As far as widespread rain…I don’t see that right now. More scattered than anything. I will keep an eye out for a more widespread event.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
