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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
A week of on and off rain chances. Severe weather risk looks low. That is the good news. But, we are going to have several days where showers and storms will at least be possible. It won’t rain all of the time.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps some lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday. – Quite a few clouds from time to time. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range. It could be warmer over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. This will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday. – Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range. Temperatures may vary a bit. This will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: East/northeast winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Clouds. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday. – Partly sunny. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range. Temperatures may vary greatly because of cloud cover.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms. Perhaps better chances after 2 am.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 63-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% (subject to adjustments)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday. – Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60% (subject to adjustments)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
Is severe weather expected? No, but a strong storms is possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a solid plan B.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Low confidence on Saturday’s forecast.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% before 6 pm. 20%-30% after 6 pm. Decreasing chances through the night.
Coverage of precipitation: Ending from west to east
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B for the early evening hours. Hopefully the rain will end by evening.
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds. Cooler.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday. – Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Monday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday. – Mostly sunny
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday. – Mostly sunny and warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures 80-85 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday. – Mostly sunny and warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures 82-86 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Thursday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday. – Mostly sunny and warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures 84-88 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Unsettled week of weather ahead.
- Severe weather risks this week will be low (some good news).
- Cooler temperatures showing up in the charts
- Looking ahead
I hope everyone had a nice holiday weekend. We did have some decent weather. Yes, a few showers and storms, but certainly not the wash out that some weather app’s were forecasting.
WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER!
Meteorologists are weird. We measure seasons just a little bit differently than everyone else. We mark June, July, and August as summer. Thus, June 1st would be the beginning of meteorological summer.
We have another week of unsettled weather ahead of us. Some clouds and on and off shower and thunderstorm chances. Once again, it won’t rain all of the time. But, it will be enough to cause your plans to be impacted.
The great news is that there is only minimal risk for severe weather. It is still spring. It does not take much to have severe weather in spring. Weak wind fields, however, will likely keep the severe weather risk in check. So, even though we will have shower and thunderstorm chances, it won’t be a complete washout. Lightning will be the main concern for outdoor events. But, that is fairly normal for this time of the year.
Temperatures this week will be highly dependent on cloud cover. I would not be surprised if parts of southeast Missouri are in the 70s, from time to time, while the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky could be in the middle to upper 80s. Again, cloud cover will make all the difference.
Rainfall totals this week won’t be as great as last week. Parts of the region had more than seven inches of rain last week. This weeks totals will likely be less than one inch over most of the area. Of course, we don’t even need that.
You will want to monitor updated forecasts over the coming days. The probability chances for rain will likely need to be adjusted. Also, remember, a 20% chance of rain means that there will likely be some rain on radar. But, the odds are that your area will remain dry. The lower probability chances mean that there will still be some showers and thunderstorms on radar. Keep that in mind.
There remains some question marks surrounding Saturday and Sunday’s forecast. I know some of you have weddings and outdoor events. Monitor updates. Have a plan B. If you have plan B then you will be prepared rain or shine.
I don’t think these graphics will shock you. Each one of them indicates that we have had too much rain. Take your pick!
The long range forecast is for cooler than normal temperatures. Both the six to ten and eight to fourteen day outlooks indicated below normal temperatures (when averaged out). Normal highs for this time of the year are in the lower 80s and normal lows are in the lower 60s.
Keep in mind, below normal temperatures could still be warm.
Here is the 6-10 day temperature outlook.
Here is the 8-14 day temperature outlook
Looking ahead:
I am monitoring the long range cycle that shows the potential of heavier storms somewhere after the 11th of June and before the 22nd.
And with that, I guess we shall kick off meteorological summer.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night: Isolated thunderstorm possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Thursday and Thursday night: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Friday and Friday night: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Saturday: A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Lightning is the main concern.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated rain chances and temperatures.
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I am not overly concerned about severe weather. The atmosphere will be unstable from time to time. Wind fields, however, will be weak. Thus, the severe weather risk will be small.
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Perhaps keep an umbrella handy. The on and off rain chances should guarantee you at least a few showers this week.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
We are going to have another week of on and off rain chances. Messy forecast. It does not appear that widespread heavy rain is going to be an issue. But, several rounds of showers and even thunderstorms will be possible.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
