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Tuesday: No concerns for most of the region. Perhaps isolated lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Wednesday: A cold front will deliver thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. A few storms could reach severe levels.
Thursday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Friday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Saturday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Sunday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Monday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Tuesday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
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- No major concerns for most of the week. A cold front will push into the region on Wednesday. That front should deliver a line of showers and thunderstorms.
- Increasing heat develops Sunday into next week. If the potential tropical system misses our region then it will be quite hot and muggy next week.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Tuesday through Thursday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated on Tuesday over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. Scattered on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. Isolated on Thursday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few intense storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Wednesday’s storms could produce a few isolated flash flooding issues. For the most part, the risk is low.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values around 100 today. Between 98 and 104 on Wednesday.
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Friday through Monday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. Isolated thunderstorms. Slow-moving storms could produce isolated issues.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Possible from Friday into the weekend. Greater chances of 100 and above by Sunday into next week.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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July 9, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. Elsewhere, dry conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: A few storms are possible over southeast Missouri and perhaps portions of southwest Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. Scattered wet roads and lightning in southeast Missouri and perhaps extreme southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars if you live in southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois.
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly to mostly clear. Warm. Humid. Patchy fog. Increasing clouds from the northwest after midnight. A slight chance of a thunderstorm after 3 AM near Randolph County, Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N0
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 1:23 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
Moonset: 12:45 PM
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July 10, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Partly sunny. A cold front will push into the region from the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The best chance will be during the afternoon hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce strong winds and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds overnight. Scattered thunderstorms before midnight. I will be monitoring the speed of the above mentioned cold front. If the front slows then the bulk of the precipitation will fall on Wednesday night vs day. A mild night. Patchy fog developing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads and lightning. A few storms, during the evening, could produce strong wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 2:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:16 AM
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July 11, 2019.
Thursday’s Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of morning thunderstorms over our eastern counties. That would mainly be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none for most of the area. There could be some morning fog. I will monitor the speed of the cold front in case a few lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over our eastern counties. That would be during the morning hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 3:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:50 AM
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Friday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day storm is possible. Majority of the region will be dry. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light wind.
Saturday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day storm is possible. Majority of the region will be dry. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light wind.
Sunday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day storm is possible. Majority of the region will be dry. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light wind.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Click to enlarge
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Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday through Tuesday: Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday. I am monitoring tomorrow (Wednesday).
A cold front on Wednesday will deliver the best chance of organized storms. I will keep an eye on instability and wind shear. I can’t rule out a few storms producing hail and high winds.
Isolated storms are possible, during the heat of the day, on Friday through Tuesday of next week.
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Value-added severe weather graphics.
Click to enlarge
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
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- A few storms today over southeast Missouri and perhaps far southwest Illinois.
- A cold front arrives on Wednesday with some thunderstorms.
- Hotter weather developing late in the weekend into next week.
- Monitoring the tropics.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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Weather
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Advice:
A mostly calm week ahead of us.
Monitor updates concerning storms on Wednesday.
It will be hot Friday into Sunday. Heat index values will be well into the 90s to near 100 degrees. High UV readings.
If the tropical system misses our region then hot weather Sunday into much of next week will develop. For now, we need to monitor the tropical system.
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Weather Forecast Analysis.
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Today will be calm for most of the region. We will have a chance of a few thunderstorms bubbling up across southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois. Confidence in more than a few storms is rather low.
The rest of the region should remain dry with a few clouds. It will be quite warm again. Humid, as well.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight.
Wednesday’s Cold Front
A cold front will push into the region Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. A few storms could be on the strong side. There will be plenty of moisture and instability to tap into. That means locally heavy rain. Typical forecast for a summer cold front.
The front will move east/southeast on Wednesday evening and night. This will begin to shift the rain chances out of our region.
I will need to monitor Thursday morning in case the front is slower in its departure. Some thunderstorms may linger into Thursday. This would most likely happen across western Kentucky and Tennessee. I will be monitoring the speed of the front.
You can see the front on these two maps.
The first map is for Wednesday. The second map is for Thursday.
The cold front is the blue line with blue triangles. The red line with red half-circles would be a warm front.
And, Thursday’s weather map. The cold front continues to move south and east.
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Thursday onward.
Thursday through Sunday should be dry (assuming that front does continue to push east and south).
I did increase temperatures for the weekend. It now appears the high temperatures will reach 90 degrees and above. For a few days it appeared we might remain in the 80s.
Finally, I am monitoring a potential tropical system that could form in the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. It is way too soon to speculate on the track, intensity, or whether it will even form.
The WPC brings heavy rain into portions of Texas and Louisiana. For now, that seems a good bet. The system would likely move into one of those two states. Perhaps both.
Click to enlarge.
This is the seven-day rainfall forecast from NOAA. Extremely heavy rain near the Texas and Louisiana State line.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
- The timestamp is located in the upper left corner.
- During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.
The NAM
Some of the models do not show much precip on Wednesday. I have kept chances around 40%.
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The NAM 3K
Some of the models do not show much precip on Wednesday. I have kept chances around 40%.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 702
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Mid-Atlantic ChaserCon 2019
- Dealing with forecasting random airmass summer thunderstorms
- Hurricane Barbara forms in Eastern Pacific
- James Spann officially releases his book
- Controversy concerning NASCAR weather delay in Chicago
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
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