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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be intense, especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Very heavy rain likely in some locations (rainfall totals could exceed 3″ in spots).
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out a storm, but scattered in nature.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe thunderstorm risk possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% chance
What impact is expected? Where storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible. Gusty winds. Isolated severe thunderstorm possible. Best chance for a storm becoming severe would be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Flash flooding possible in areas where storms train.
Thursday – Flash flood watch: Mostly cloudy during the morning with showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy in the afternoon with more heavy storms possible. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk. Not expecting major problems.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% during the morning and 50%-60% chance in the afternoon
What impact is expected? Lightning would be the main concern. Heavy rain in some spots. Isolated severe risk. Flash flooding risk continues.
Thursday night – Flash flood watch. Cloudy with a chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may shift to the southeast at 5 mph late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Lightning and heavy rain is the main concern. Flash flooding.
Friday – Partly sunny and quite warm. Humid. Summer like. A 20% chance for a storm.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting problems. If a storm pops up then lightning is the main concern.
Friday night – Partly cloudy early. Small chance for an isolated storm. Becoming mostly clear late. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% or less
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Humid.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps a gust to 15 mph on lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance or less
What impact is expected? Not expecting problems.
Saturday night – Mostly clear and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Humid.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts from 10-15 on lakes on Sunday afternoon
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance or less
What impact is expected? Not expecting problems.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Storm chances will start to move north over the coming days.
2. Mostly dry and hot weather for Friday into Sunday. Summer like weather. Small storm chances.
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Wow, is all I can say. Normally summer is rather boring in the weather department. Now, boring is good. Boring means that I can hit the snooze button one more time. Boring means that you don’t have to worry about your property being damaged by flooding or storms. But, the last few weeks have not been boring. They have brought repeated rounds of showers and heavy storms to our region. Some of you are still cleaning out from the recent flash flooding.
The numbers are in for June. It was the wettest June on record for parts of our region. You can read more here
https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2015/07/08/illinois-was-the-wettest-state-in-the-us-in-june/
The good news is that the whole weather system that has caused us grief is slowly but surely going to return northward over the coming 48 hours.
We are not completely finished with rain and storms. We still have chances into Thursday evening. But, the chances will start to lessen with time.
Heavy rain continues to be a major concern.
Some places picked up over 5″ of rain last night (Wednesday night). If storms train then flash flooding is a good bet today and tonight.
Avoid flooded roadways.
By Friday, Saturday, and Sunday it will be partly to mostly sunny and quite warm/hot. Perhaps a slight chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. Heat of the day…summer type storms. But, generally…it will be dry over most of the area.
Temperatures will return to more seasonal norms or above normal. Highs into the 90’s are a good bet all three days.
But, all good things must come to an end. It appears we may return to an active pattern late Sunday night into next week. See the extended discussion for that information.
I hope we don’t have more heavy rain, but that is what happens with this type of pattern. Same as the last few months. Too much rain for many areas.
Severe weather?
The severe weather risk for the next 48 hours is low. It isn’t zero, but it is low. A few severe storms can’t be ruled out. Especially true for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The threat at any given spot is fairly low. Small tornado risk on Wednesday night over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Thursday should bring a small risk for severe thunderstorms. More concerned about heavy rain.
How about temperatures anomalies for Thursday?
These numbers represent how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be on Thursday (temperatures have been below normal for two weeks…quite amazing for summer)
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Northwest flow returns on Sunday night into early next week
As we move into next week it appears that northwest flow will develop again. What does that mean? Well, if you have been reading the blog over the last two months you will know that when northwest upper level wind flow develops it normally means active weather. Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms. That is what has been happening over our region for weeks on end.
These thunderstorm complexes come in from the west/northwest and produce very heavy rainfall totals. Pockets of 3-6″ have been common over the past few weeks. Even higher amounts than that.
Still some questions on timing for next weeks thunderstorms. But, at least some chance Sunday night into Monday. Beyond Monday will need to be monitored. Predicting these complexes even a day in advance can be tricky, at best.
If we do return to northwest flow then it will mean cooler temperatures or below normal temperatures, as well.
Keep that in mind.
All of July has been below normal, thus far. The end of June was also below normal. Yes, we have had some warm and muggy days, but still below normal in the temperature department.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best
Hit and miss on the rainfall totals for Wednesday evening into Thursday evening. Expect some heavy rain where thunderstorms redevelopment on Wednesday afternoon and evening. A quick 1-3″ can occur in the most intense storms. Pockets of higher than 3″.
Rainfall amounts on Thursday will once again vary. 1-3″ will be possible where precipitation trains over the same area. Pockets of higher amounts can’t be ruled out.
Expect dry conditions Friday into Sunday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Wednesday night and Thursday. Borderline THREE for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Wednesday night.
Wednesday Night Severe Weather Outlook – Storms are possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible, but should mostly remain below severe levels. Small risk for a severe storm.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
A few severe storms can’t be ruled out this afternoon and evening (Wednesday afternoon/evening) over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The main concern will be locally heavy thunderstorms. We don’t need more rain. Any thunderstorms that train over the same areas could quickly produce some flooding of roadways, creeks, and ditches. Keep this in mind.
Also, keep in mind that you do not need a NWS advisory or warning to have issues. Last week we witnessed this several times. No advisories or warnings in some locations that had flooding. Use common sense, as always.
There was also one death last week because someone drove through flood waters in western Kentucky. Avoid flooded roadways. Use common sense.
Lightning is a concern for outdoor events.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
