Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected every day through the weekend, with 30% to 80% (see the graphics further down in the blog) chances of rain. The best chance for widespread rain will be Thursday night through Saturday.
• Several rounds of heavy rain could move across the region during this time. This may increase the risk of flash flooding, especially from Thursday evening through Saturday.  Rain totals will vary wildly (typical for summer).
• The chance for severe storms is very low today (less than 5%), although one or two stronger storms can’t be ruled out.
• The risk for severe weather increases from late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Additional chances of severe storms on Friday and perhaps even Saturday.
• 🌡️ Temperatures today will be a little cooler than normal, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
• 🥵 Thursday and possibly Friday will be hotter, with highs in the lower 90s. Combined with the humidity, it could feel hotter than 100 degrees.
• 🌤️ Temperatures will cool back into the mid- and upper 80s over the weekend.
• 🌡️ By next Tuesday, temperatures are expected to climb back above 90 degrees.

⛈️ Weather Details

Today’s weather will be similar to the past couple of days, with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Most storms will be typical summer storms, producing brief gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Because the storms will move slowly, localized flooding is possible where heavy rain falls.

Beginning Thursday, the weather pattern becomes more active as several weather systems move across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This will create a better environment for stronger and more organized thunderstorms.

The greatest threat appears to be from late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, especially across the northern half of the region, where the risk for severe weather is highest.  See the graphics below.

The main severe weather threat will be:

• 💨 Damaging wind gusts
• 🌧️ Heavy rainfall
• ⚡ Frequent lightning

Additional rounds of strong-to-severe storms are possible on Friday and could continue into Saturday.

🌊 Flooding Concerns

Forecast confidence is increasing that heavy rain will fall in several rounds from Thursday night through Saturday.

Some locations could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated areas seeing even higher totals. This could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas that receive repeated storms. A Flood Watch may be issued later this week if confidence continues to increase.

Keep in mind, recent events have produced days with some areas receiving less than 0.50″ and other areas receiving more than six inches.  It just depends on where the heavy thunderstorm bands set up.  Monitor updates.  Avoid flooded roadways, if they develop.

☀️ Looking Ahead

Early to the middle of next week, a large area of high pressure is expected to build into the region. This should bring several dry days and allow the unsettled weather to come to an end.

Temperatures will warm back into the lower 90s by Tuesday, but the extreme heat is expected to stay mainly west of our area, so it should not be as hot as last week’s heat wave.  I guess that is the good news.