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Monday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning mainly over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
Tuesday: No concerns for most of the region. Perhaps isolated lightning over southeast Missouri.
Wednesday: A cold front will deliver thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. A few storms could be severe. High wind and hail will be the main concern.
Thursday: No concerns for most of the region.
Friday: No concerns for most of the region.
Saturday: No concerns for most of the region.
Sunday: No concerns for most of the region.
Monday: No concerns for most of the region.
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- No major concerns for most of the week. A cold front will push into the region on Wednesday. That front should deliver a line of showers and thunderstorms.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Monday through Wednesday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated on Monday over southeast Missouri. Scattered on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few intense storms are possible along a cold front on Wednesday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Unlikely.
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Wednesday through Saturday
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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July 8, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: A warm day. Humid, as well. We will have a few storms over mainly southeast Missouri. A small chance of a storm over southwest Illinois. The further west you travel the better the chance of a thunderstorm. Otherwise, most of the area will be dry. Patchy morning fog. A few clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 85° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None of most of the region. A few storms are possible over mainly southeast Missouri.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. Isolated wet roads and lightning in southeast Missouri. A small chance of a storm over southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
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Monday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm over southeast Missouri before 9 pm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Near calm winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. Isolated wet roads and lightning in southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 12:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:12 AM
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July 9, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over southeast Missouri. Elsewhere, dry conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region. Isolated over southeast Missouri.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. Isolated wet roads and lightning in southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly to mostly clear. Warm. Humid. Patchy fog. Increasing clouds from the northwest after midnight. A slight chance of a thunderstorm after 3 AM near Randolph County, Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N0
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 1:23 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
Moonset: 12:45 PM
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July 10, 2019.
Wednesday’s Forecast: Partly sunny. A cold front will push into the region from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce isolated strong and gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds overnight. An evening thunderstorm is possible. I will be monitoring the speed of the above mentioned cold front. If the front slows then the bulk of the precipitation will fall on Wednesday night vs day. A mild night. Patchy fog developing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 2:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:16 AM
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Thursday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A morning storm over our eastern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky). 20% during the morning. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 84 to 88 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. North wind at 6 to 12 mph.
Friday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 84 to 88 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. North wind at 6 to 12 mph.
Saturday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 84 to 88 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. North wind at 5 to 10 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Monday through Sunday: Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. I am monitoring Wednesday.
A cold front on Wednesday will deliver the best chance of organized storms. I will keep an eye on instability and wind shear. I can’t rule out a few storms producing hail and gusty winds.
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Value-added severe weather graphics.
Click to enlarge
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Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
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- A fairly calm week ahead of us.
- A cold front delivers some rain and storms on Wednesday.
- Monitoring the tropics.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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Weather
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Advice:
A mostly calm week ahead of us.
Monitor updates concerning storms on Wednesday.
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Weather Forecast Analysis
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I hope you had a nice holiday weekend! I did. I was able to catch a movie and some fireworks.
I have good news for those who are tired of the rain.
A drier pattern will bring less active weather today into the weekend.
We may have a couple of thunderstorms today over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. For the most part, the region will be dry.
That same forecast will apply to tonight and tomorrow.
Wednesday’s Cold Front
A cold front will push into the region Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. A few storms could be on the strong side. There will be plenty of moisture and instability to tap into. That means locally heavy rain. Typical forecast for a summer cold front.
The air behind the front will be several degrees cooler. It will also be a little bit less muggy. We will take it!
Let’s take a look at Wednesday’s dew points and compare them to what Friday will deliver.
See the difference? Yes, it is still a bit humid but it isn’t oppressive.
Wednesday’s dew points (click to enlarge)
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Friday (click to enlarge)
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Dry weather is likely Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
I will need to monitor Thursday morning in case the front is slower in its departure. If that happens then I will need to linger thunderstorm chances over the eastern part of western Kentucky.
Finally, I am monitoring a potential tropical system that could form in the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. It is way too soon to speculate on the track, intensity, or whether it will even form.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
- The time stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.
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The NAM
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The GFS
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 702
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Mid-Atlantic ChaserCon 2019
- Dealing with forecasting random airmass summer thunderstorms
- Hurricane Barbara forms in Eastern Pacific
- James Spann officially releases his book
- Controversy concerning NASCAR weather delay in Chicago
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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