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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday night – Flash flood watch: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds would be gustier near storms, of course.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and have a back up plan in mind.
Is severe weather expected? Minimal risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% chance.
What impact is expected? Where storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible. Gusty winds. Flash flooding risk.
Wednesday – Flash flood watch: Some clouds. Not as warm. A chance for thunderstorms. Where storms occur there could be locally heavy rainfall totals.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: Variable winds in the area. South of the front we will have southwest winds. North of the front there will be east and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Winds would be gustier near storms, of course.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80% chance
What impact is expected? Storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Flash flooding continues to be a concern. There is also a small risk for large hail and an isolated tornado.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. A few scattered thunderstorms, especially early. Some storms could be intense.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out a storm, but scattered in nature.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% chance early and 40% late
What impact is expected? Where storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible. Gusty winds. Isolated severe weather.
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a few scattered storms possible. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Should not be a washout…all day rain, but some storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% chance
What impact is expected? Lightning would be the main concern if a storm forms. Heavy rain in some spots.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and heavy downpours.
Right now it appears Friday into Sunday will be mostly sunny to partly sunny. I believe rain chances will be less than 10% for that time period. Warm/hot. Highs perhaps into the lower 90’s.
Rain chances might return by Monday or Tuesday.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thunderstorms over the next 24-48 hours
2. Some locally heavy rainfall totals
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
What a 24-36 hours it has been, for some of you. Very heavy rain fell on Tuesday morning over parts of western Kentucky and southern Illinois. 1-5″ of rain was reported in parts of Massac, Pope, and McCracken Counties. Even some 6″ reports were noted on radar.
This is the same pattern that has been repeating for the past 2 months. This time a city was hit and the flooding could not be ignored. Last week several places had 8 inches of rain and never even had flash flood warnings. Rural areas. The flooding was not on the news.
This is what happens when slow moving thunderstorms move over metropolitan areas. Drainage systems were not capable of handling the water. Thus, flash flooding was the result.
The pattern is not going to change anytime soon.
Here are some radar images of the rainfall totals. Scale is on the left.
Click for large image
We have more heavy rain possible Tuesday night and on Wednesday. Some places will pick up 1-3 inches of rain with pockets of heavier rain possible. Once again it is impossible to predict who will end up with the biggest totals. All I can tell you is that the pattern favors heavy rain.
We will finally dry out by Friday into Sunday. Temperatures will warm back up, as well. Highs will reach into the 90’s.
Our northwest wind flow will return by Monday. That means more storm chances by Sunday night into next week. The northwest flow is what is causing part of our problem. When the upper level winds are out of the northwest it tends to push systems into our region. These systems then stall out over us. Thus, heavy rain results.
Severe weather?
The severe weather risk for the next 48 hours is low. It isn’t zero, but it is low. If there were to be some severe storms then perhaps over parts of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois.
How about temperatures anomalies for Wednesday?
These numbers represent how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be on Wednesday (temperatures have been below normal for two weeks…quite amazing for summer)
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Heating up for the weekend
2. Northwest flow returns on Sunday night into early next week
The big news for Friday into Sunday will be warmer temperatures. Expect highs into the 90’s all three days. Great news for you summer heat lovers. Bad news for those who don’t care for the heat.
To be fair, however, we have been mostly below normal in the temperature department for the last 2 weeks! So, can we really complain? 🙂
Expect mostly dry conditions all three days, as well. It is hard to 100% completely rule out a popup thunderstorm in the heat of the day during most of the summer months. But, the odds appear slim for much activity.
That could change by Sunday night and Monday when we return to northwest flow at the upper levels. What does that mean? Northwest flow in the summer means cooler temperatures and more active weather. Rain and storms. Still a bit early for a solid forecast on rain chances.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best
Rainfall totals tonight into Wednesday evening could range from 1-3″ with pockets of 3-6″.
Once again, some of you will miss out on the big totals. Keep that in mind.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Borderline THREE for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Tuesday Night Severe Weather Outlook – Storms are likely, but most should remain below severe levels.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Storms are likely in the area. Small chance for a severe thunderstorm.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible, but should remain below severe levels.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
A couple of severe storms possible on Wednesday over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser risk south of there.
The main concern will be locally heavy thunderstorms. We don’t need more rain. Any thunderstorms that train over the same areas could quickly produce some flooding of roadways, creeks, and ditches. Keep this in mind.
Also, keep in mind that you do not need a NWS advisory or warning to have issues. Last week we witnessed this several times. No advisories or warnings in some locations that had flooding. Use common sense, as always.
There was also one death last week because someone drove through flood waters in western Kentucky. Avoid flooded roadways. Use common sense.
Lightning is a concern for outdoor events.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
