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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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The following link is for Weather Text subscribers. This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted. The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists. Some of the best in the region.
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
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July 7, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance for scattered evening storms. A few storms could be intense with high winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Heavy rain possible where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Winds becoming west winds becoming northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Strong storms possible early.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Evening storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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July 8, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Patchy cumulus clouds. Less humid. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: North and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant evening anticipated. Less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 9, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few spotty clouds during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm over our far northern counties (towards Evansville)
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most of the area will remain dry. Far northern counties could have an isolated storm with wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated storms possible over our far northern counties (towards Mt Vernon)
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 10, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. A thunderstorm possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: South winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 11, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Isolated thunderstorm possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 12, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Isolated thunderstorm possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Friday night through Tuesday: Thunderstorms on Friday evening could be intense. There is a low end risk for damaging winds. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will be an issue with storms. Same as recent days
Dry weather is anticipated Saturday through Tuesday.
I will be monitoring Tuesday night into Friday for more storms.
Friday night:
A cold front is sagging into our region (Friday night). This front will spark some showers and locally intense thunderstorms. There is an isolated risk for a few reports of damaging winds and nickel size hail. The greatest concern will be over southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Monitor radars and your text messages.
The front will push through the region by late tonight. This will shut down any remaining thunderstorm chances.
Weekend:
I hope everyone is ready for a nice weekend. Our dew points will fall, behind a cold front sagging into the area, into the comfortable range on both Saturday and Sunday.
There will be a slight uptick in dew points on Sunday vs Saturday. Saturday should have the lower dew points of the two days.
To compare
Here are the dew points from Friday. Muggy.
Here are the Saturday forecast dew points
Click image to enlarge
Here are the Sunday forecast dew points
Here is the dew point scale
Temperatures will remain warm. Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will range from 85 degrees to around 90 degrees. The lower dew points, however, will make the atmosphere feel nicer.
The NAM model guidance wants to pop a shower on Saturday night. The odds appear low. I kept the forecast dry, for the time being.
It should be a great weekend to head out to the campground or fishing.
Monday and Tuesday:
Dew points will slowly rise on both Monday and Tuesday. It will start to feel muggy again. Summer returns!
Thunderstorm chances should remain below 15% on both Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday:
An unsettled pattern may return by the middle and end of next week. There remain some questions on storm track. If the ridge of high pressure is strong enough then it will squash our thunderstorm chances. If, however, the ridge backs a bit further to the west then that would place us in northwest flow. Northwest flow, during the summer months, means frequent shower and thunderstorm chances.
It is still a bit early to determine the exact placement of the ridge of high pressure.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
