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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Wednesday into the weekend.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain. Widespread flooding or issues are not anticipated.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Monitor. We will have increasing heat and dew points this week. We may approach the 100 degree mark with heat index values.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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July 07, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms during the heat of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 3:34 AM
Moonset: 8?19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 08, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Mainly during the afternoon (heat of the day).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 4:17 AM
Moonset: 8:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 09, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% to 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 40% to 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% to 50% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° / West KY 70° to 75° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 5:05 AM
Moonset: 8:27 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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July 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% to 50% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars. Thunderstorms are likely.
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars. Thunderstorms are possible.
Moonrise: 6:01 AM
Moonset: 9:13 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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July 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: west southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars. Thunderstorms are possible.
Moonrise: 7:01 AM
Moonset: 9:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 8:05 AM
Moonset: 10:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 9:09 AM
Moonset: 11:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Click the images to enlarge them.
Waiting for this to be updated
Click graphics to enlarge them
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through July 11th: Widespread or organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms this week could produce gusty wind and frequent lightning. Heavy downpours where thunderstorms develop. Typical July weather.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Hot and humid weather returns.
- A few thunderstorms.
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Weather advice:
Heat and humidity will make it uncomfortable outside. Use care.
Discussion
A fairly typical summer pattern is underway. Heat and humidity. Scattered thunderstorms, as well.
Each afternoon will deliver scattered showers and thunderstorms. The primary concern from these thunderstorms will be locally heavy rain and lightning.
There are some disturbances to keep an eye on, as well. These disturbances will help enhance rain chances.
One disturbances will push northward from the Gulf of Mexico today into this evening. This will bring higher rain chances to northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky (scattered thunderstorms).
A weak cold front (or boundary) will move across the region Thursday. This will help pop some storms, as well. Temperatures won’t change much behind the front (this is not a strong front).
Showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. The threat of severe weather through Friday night will be low. You can always have a burst of wind during these summer thunderstorms. That would be the exception.
The only change would be if we had an organized complex of thunderstorms form and push in from the west/northwest over the weekend. These organized thunderstorms would have a higher chance of producing strong and gusty wind.
It does appear that both Saturday and Sunday will deliver somewhat higher thunderstorm chances. Locally heavy rain will be a concern. Perhaps a few severe thunderstorm warnings for mainly strong and gusty winds. I will keep an eye on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers July 7th through July 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers July 14th through July 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers July 20th through August 2nd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
The June outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Final June Forecast
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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