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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A daily chance through Saturday. Chances should be higher Thursday into Saturday. Any storms this time of the year can produce quite a bit of lightning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Isolated wind damage. Storms this time of the year could produce strong wind gusts and even hail. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Isolated issues. There could be brief water issues where thunderstorms occur. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Today through Friday. Readings of 100 to 110 degrees. Locally higher.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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July 7, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Mainly during the afternoon heat.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Scattered wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of a thunderstorm. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:48 PM
Moonset: 12:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 8, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Mainly during the afternoon heat.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Scattered wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Scattered thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 75° / South IL 70° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 75° / West KY 70° to 75° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 2:56 PM
Moonset: 1:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 9, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher in our far southern counties vs elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 4:08 PM
Moonset: 1:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 10, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 83° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 84° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:23 PM
Moonset: 2:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 11, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:49 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 11 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° / South IL 90° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° / West KY 90° to 94° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 7:49 PM
Moonset: 4:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through July 11th: Thunderstorms could produce isolated wind damage.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Hot hot hot.
- Scattered thunderstorm chances into Thursday night.
- Somewhat higher thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday.
- Cooler Sunday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Not much commentary needed for this forecast.
It is going to be hot into Friday. Heat index values will rise above 100 degrees each afternoon.
There won’t be much relief at night. Overnight lows in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
There will continue to be scattered thunderstorms each day. Peak chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours (heat of the day).
I am watching Thursday for some intense storms. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region in a level one and two risk. This will need to be monitored.
If a line of storms forms it would move in from the northwest. Moving southeast. Any bowing segments could produce wind damage. Let’s keep an eye on it.
A cold front will filter southward Friday and Saturday. There should be an increase in thunderstorm coverage. I did bump up chances a bit more.
Sunday should be dry and warm.
I am watching another cold front next Tuesday and Wednesday.
The new drought monitor maps have been posted.
Many areas are in drought.
Change from a week ago
Double click images to enlarge them
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers July 7th through July 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers July 14th through July 20th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers July 19th through August 1st
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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