July 31, 2025: The heat wave is ending.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

July 31st through August 6th

Current risk: NO.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible today into this evening. A few storms could linger into Friday (esp south). Lightning is possible next week.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.

A cold front will bring an increased risk of scattered strong thunderstorms today. Some of the thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Slow-moving summer storms can produce torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. A few locations will hit 90 degrees today.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees are possible this afternoon south of the cold front. The risk of that is a bit higher across the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Forecast discussion.

A cold front is moving through the region today. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary.
July/August thunderstorms can produce strong and gusty winds. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, as well.
Somewhat cooler air and much less humid air will move into the region today and tonight. The slightly cooler and less humid air will linger into Monday. It will be a bit more humid again as we move through next week.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible next week. Warm and humid conditions.

Good morning, everyone. The heat wave is ending, finally.

Summer isn’t over, but hopefully the hottest heat index days of 2025 are behind us.

The cold front is moving through the region today. An upper-level front will move through the region today, as well.

This will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Here is what the radar looked like at 5 am.

I expect scattered thunderstorms to develop along the front today.

There remain questions about storm coverage. Not everyone will experience rain. Some locations will pick up a downpour.

Storms will also produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. The risk of severe weather is low.

Here are the daily temperature forecasts. Better than recent days.

Today

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

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Somewhat cooler and less humid air will arrive today and tonight, with even more significant changes by Friday.

This will be a great weekend to mow the yard and work outside. I know some of you have been unable to work outside in the heat.

The cold front will slowly move north to south. Some areas (south of the front) will remain quite warm today. Keep that in mind, as well.

An extreme heat warning continues today for the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

Here is where the surface front was located this morning. A secondary upper-level front will move south through our region today.

Here is the front by Friday (to our south).

Again, as mentioned above, scattered thunderstorms are likely today.

Isolated storms are possible on Friday. Mainly near the MO/AR and KY/TN border. Closer to the front. Most of the area will remain dry.

Some of the thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. A low risk of a few severe thunderstorm warnings. Same as recent days.

Let’s look at the rain probabilities.

Thursday 7 am to Thursday 7 pm

Thursday 7 pm to Friday 7 am

Sunday 7 am to Sunday 7 pm

Sunday 7 pm to Monday 7 am

Monday 7 am to Monday 7 pm

Next week looks unsettled and warm. Humid, at times. It will not be as extreme as this week was. Typical summer/August weather.

Next week, we will have daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, probably in the 30% to 40% range. I can’t rule out periods where rain chances rise above 40%, but there is no clear signal for that, yet.

We will be in northwest jetstream flow aloft. Typically, that does bring a few storms to our region (during the summer months).

Let me show you two models. The GEFS model and the EC model.

This shows you the temperatures in the long range.

This looks like fairly typical August weather.

The GEFS model

The EC model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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Radars and Lightning Data

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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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ZoomRadar

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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