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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Note:
** A difficult forecast. There will be periods of extremely heavy rain for some counties. Flash flooding likely. Monitor updates and your Beau Dodson Weather App over the coming week. **
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible later today and tonight over mainly southeast Missouri. Lightning is possible area-wide Tuesday into the weekend. There will be periods with higher chances. Monitor daily updates as this weather pattern unfolds.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Storms over the coming days could produce gusty wind and hail. Some severe weather can’t be ruled out.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Flash flooding is likely this week. Some counties could receive more than six inches of rain. Monitor updates throughout the week as the forecast becomes more in focus. I will be sending out Beau Dodson Weather App messages.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Monitor.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Monday, July 31, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri. The farther west you drive the higher the chance.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over southeast Missouri
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms. This would be over southeast Missouri. Dry elsewhere.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars after midnight
Moonrise: 7:48 PM
Moonset: 4:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. I will be watching a complex of thunderstorms approaching our region from central Missouri. I will need to monitor the track. Some of the guidance shows it farther west and some a tad east. Thunderstorm probabilities reflect the potential path.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather App
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather App
Moonrise: 8:35 PM
Moonset: 5:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:12 PM
Moonset: 6:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, August 3, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:44 PM
Moonset: 8:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Warm temperatures.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances.
- Flash flooding is a major concern for some counties.
- Severe weather potential.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Avoid flooded roadways.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Thunderstorm complexes. Flash flood concerns.
Here we go again.
July was one of the busiest severe weather months since April 2011. It is summer. Summer isn’t supposed to be like this. But, that was the forecast. A stormy and wet July with extremes.
Now, we are looking at more extremes in August. Sadly, more flash flooding is on the way.
I am forecasting some counties to receive at least three to six inches of rain with the possibility of higher totals.
This is an extremely difficult forecast with a lot of moving parts.
This pattern is similar to what happened in July. Multiple rounds of MCS’s. Thunderstorm complexes. Some of the complexes will produce torrential rain, damaging wind, and prolific lightning.
The end result will be more severe thunderstorm warnings and more flash flood warnings.
I am concerned that there is at the potential of extreme rain totals, yet again.
Monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather app. There will be changeable forecasts over the coming days.
I will have to take each 12 to 24 hour time-period and figure out the exact path of the thunderstorm complexes.
Model guidance will be of little help. Models have been horrible this summer. Completely missing large thunderstorm complexes even in the six to twelve hour range.
That leaves us meteorologists using current observations, satellite, and radars to forecast what will happen next and where.
Let’s break it down.
Today and tonight:
Decent weather across much of the region today. Temperatures won’t be as unbearable as last week. I don’t have any flash flood concerns today.
Some storms will be possible across southeast Missouri. The farther west you travel the higher the chances of running into some storms later today and tonight.
Most of my forecast region, however, will remain dry.
Some of the thunderstorms tonight could produce heavy rain in Missouri. I will keep an eye on it. Odds of that are higher outside of my forecast zone.
Tuesday and Tuesday night
MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes) will form over Iowa and Missouri. They will then track south southeast.
There will be an ongoing thunderstorm complex tomorrow morning over portions of Missouri. That should stay far enough west to miss most of my forecast counties.
I will need to monitor Butler and Bollinger Counties in southeast Missouri.
The next thunderstorm complex will form Tuesday afternoon and evening over Iowa and Missouri. It will track south southeast.
This thunderstorm complex may hit portions of our region. There is not agreement on the exact path. It is possible that it mainly impacts Missouri and perhaps southern Illinois.
Other data, however, tracks it straight across our region. This will need to be monitored.
Heavy rain will likely occur with this complex. Training thunderstorms will enhance rain totals.
Wednesday and Wednesday night
A lot of what happens Wednesday will depend on the the morning thunderstorm complex. Where it tracks will be key to additional thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and night. Monitor updates.
Thunderstorms will produce torrential rain and lightning. I can’t rule out some severe weather, as well. That will also need to be monitored.
Thunderstorms may repeatedly train over the same areas. This will enhance rain totals and the flash flood threat in some areas.
Thursday into the weekend
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Some with heavy rain and frequent lightning. Gusty wind will accompany some storms.
This is an unsettled pattern.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app over the coming days. I will be sending out messages.
The good news is that no extreme heat is expected this week as northwest flow will control the weather.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the FV3 Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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