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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday through Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Mostly today through Sunday. Smaller chances Monday to Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Lower end risk. A few reports of high wind.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding may occur.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Unlikely.
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July 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 6:03 PM
Moonset: 2:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° SE MO 76° to 82° South IL 76° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 82° West KY 76° to 82° NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest 0 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 6:59 PM
Moonset: 3:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 7:47 PM
Moonset: 4:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
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Monday night Forecast: A few evening clouds with a slight chance of showers. Clearing. Patchy fog. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 58° to 64° South IL 60° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated early
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways early in the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset: 5:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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August 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:03 PM
Moonset: 6:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A slight chance of wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. A slight chance of an evening storm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A slight chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset: 7:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:57 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset: 8:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. A slight chance of an evening storm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:27 PM
Moonset: 9:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. A slight chance of an evening storm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:52 PM
Moonset: 10:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Locally heavy rain is the main concern.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 2nd: Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty wind. A low end threat of wind damage.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated July 29, 2020
The main concern will be slow moving thunderstorms over the coming days. Flash flooding is the concern. Avoid flooded roadways.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
- Cooler next week.
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Good day, everyone.
Another day with flash flooding potential.
We had two rounds of storms Thursday. One in the morning. One in the afternoon and into the night.
Some of you picked up 1 to 3 inches of rain. Others picked up no rain at all.
That is just the nature of this pattern. I know we have high percentage probabilities. Keep in mind, just because there is a 70% chance of thunderstorms that does not mean everyone will receive rain.
This has been a multi day rain event. It will continue through today and into Saturday.
We will see how all the rain totals shake out after that. It is difficult this time of the year to see uniform rain amounts.
That is more common in the fall and winter months. Summer is spotty. As most of you know.
So, I know some of you still need rain. Let’s see how the next 48 hours go.
Some of the rain today will come down in buckets. Same as recent weeks. One to three inches of rain in less than an hour.
As a matter of fact, some of you have picked up an inch of rain in less than ten minutes. Same today.
High PWAT values equal heavy rain.
Plan on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
The rain chances will begin to diminish Saturday night and Sunday. We will drop to 30% or less. So, some storms are still likely but coverage will decrease.
Great news on temperatures. Much nicer weather is on the way. Numerous days with upper 70s and lower 80s next week. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Can’t beat that during August.
A few scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday. Chances decrease Wednesday through Friday. That is the going forecast.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures.
Avoid flooded roadways.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers July 31st through August 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers August 7th through August 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers August 14th through August 27th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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