July 30th, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

NOTE: A complicated forecast from north to south. Portions of the region will be cooler and less muggy. Rain chances will be greater in some counties vs other counties.

Please see the hand typed text daily detailed forecast further down in the blog. I break down the forecast by local areas.

48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today into Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few thunderstorms could be intense. The main concern would be gusty wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring locally heavy rain today through Sunday morning. It is that time of the year where storms can produce gully washers. Peak heavy rain chances should be late Friday night into Saturday night. That does not mean locally heavy storms can’t occur before then.

Slow moving thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain in less than 30-minutes.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Today. Heat index values around 100 are possible (esp in areas away from clouds and storms). Mainly across portions of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

July 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler north of the front. Hot south of the front. Muggier south of the front, as well. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 86° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 65° to 70° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 12:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 31, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (highest chances will be across the northern half of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois). Some areas will likely remain dry Saturday (during the day).
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° / SE MO 80° to 88° / South IL 78° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 86° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 98° wide range north to south
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 64° to 70° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:01 AM
Moonset: 1:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter

August 1st, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly south).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% to 50% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% to 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm (mainly south).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending/isolated.
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Our southern counties may still have wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 12:28 AM
Moonset: 2:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 2nd, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 76° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 12:57 AM
Moonset: 3:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 3rd, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 1:31 AM
Moonset: 4:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 4th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 2:11 AM
Moonset: 5:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 5th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 2:58 AM
Moonset: 6:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

For those cutting hay, you will want to monitor Thursday night into Sunday for wet ground conditions.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Double click on these images to enlarge them. These are Friday’s graphics.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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Today through August 5th: Thunderstorms are possible today into Sunday morning. A few of the thunderstorms could produce high wind and hail. The primary concern will be Saturday/Saturday night. The risk is lower Sunday as the cold front pulls away from the region.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. The primary concern will be thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours.
2. Lower heat index readings today.
3. Nicer air-mass is moving into the region.

Weather advice:

Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather app. Some severe thunderstorms are possible. The primary concern will be Saturday/Saturday night.

Weather Discussion

Heavy thunderstorms moved across portions of the region last night. Some of you had quite the light-show with frequent cloud to ground lightning. Some of the storms produced 45 mph wind gusts and torrential rain.

Severe flash flooding occurred across eastern Kentucky last night. At least one person died in the flooding. Many areas received three to six inches of rain.

Check out some of these rain totals (eastern Kentucky)

Thankfully, our region did not receive quite as much rain as areas to our east. Still, some counties picked up more than two inches of rain. Typical summer storms. Feast or famine. A neighboring county can pick up a quick one to three inches of rain and your county receives little or none.

Let’s look at our region. Several bands of heavy rain overnight (this is what fell earlier this morning).

Radar estimates rain totals from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday.

Using a different radar. Here are some of the radar estimates from the overnight thunderstorms.

Forecast Challenges.

The challenge in the forecast, over the next 48 hours, will be the placement of a cold front that is currently sagging southward through the region.

You can see the front here on this surface chart from around 3 AM. It is even further south now.

This front will make a big difference when it comes to temperatures, dew points (how muggy it feels), precipitation chances, precipitation totals, and the threat of severe thunderstorms.

Let me show you the temperature animation from the NAM model.

Temperatures are going to be cooler north of the front. Warmer south of the front. The front will actually sag into and through much of the region by tonight. Then, a warm front may move northward Saturday.

You can track the front on this animation, quite well. The surge of warmer air tomorrow does not push all the way into southern Illinois. That is the warm front, by the way.

You can see today’s temperature forecast static image. Notice the difference.

It won’t be nearly as muggy north of the front vs south. Dew point controls how muggy it feels outside. Let me show you that animation. You can track the front.

Notice the front moves back north a bit Saturday. That sets the stage for thunderstorms.

See the lower numbers pushing southward today? Then watch them surge northward tomorrow.

Precipitable water values will surge tomorrow, as well. That sets the stage for torrential downpours along the front tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Precipitable water controls rain rates. Higher numbers = heavier rain rates. One to two inches of rain in less than thirty minutes will be possible in the heavier thunderstorms.

Keep in mind, much of Saturday may be dry over a chunk of the region. At least two or three rounds of storms will be possible Saturday and Saturday night in the region.

It won’t rain all of the time at any given location.

The front sags southward Sunday. That will bring an end to the thunderstorm chances.

The front will still be in the region Sunday morning. Exiting Sunday afternoon. That means a few showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Sunday morning over portions of southeast Missouri (south), western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. It is possible the front will have completely clear the northern half of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.

Rain totals are going to vary. Greatly. I would not be a bit surprised if someone picks up two to four inches of rain before the front moves out of the region. Other areas may receive little or no rain. Same storyline from the past month or so.

These large rain total differences are common during the summer months.

Cooler air drifts into the region over the coming days (as mentioned above). It will feel noticeably nicer by Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Some models show highs not region 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Either way, it is going to feel MUCH nicer than this past week.

Much lower dew points through much of the next week, as well.

A slow warming trend will begin Wednesday and Thursday. Nothing extreme but we will begin to slowly creep up a few degrees each day.

It is still summer. It will be August. We are not completely finished with heat! Of course.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.