July 30, 2025: Here comes the cold front. We will feel the cooler and less humid air by Friday.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

July 30th through August 5th

Current risk: NO.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible through Thursday. A few storms could linger into Friday (esp south). I will monitor Monday through Wednesday. Scattered storms are possible.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.

A cold front will bring an increased risk of scattered strong thunderstorms tonight and Thursday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce high wind gusts.

The SPC continues to shift this around with each update. The concern is a bit higher in the dark green zone. The risk is mainly over our northern counties. The risk is lower elsewhere.

This outlook is for Wednesday (today) and Wednesday night. For now, they have not outlined anyone on Thursday. But, with that said, a couple of Thursday’s storms could produce strong wind gusts. Many areas may remain dry.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Slow-moving summer storms can produce torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. This will be a concern through Thursday. Peak concerns will be Wednesday night into Thursday.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Temperatures are expected to be in the nineties through today. Perhaps on Thursday in some locations. Thursday’s temperatures will depend on just how fast the cold front passes through the region.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values of 104 to 108 degrees are expected to be in the forecast through this afternoon. I will monitor our far southern counties on Thursday (along the MO/AR and KY/TN border).

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? LOW RISK. That is possible today in a few locations. Use care during the peak heating hours.

Here is a graphic that shows you the warnings.

Double-click on this image to enlarge.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Forecast discussion.

Another hot and muggy day. Excessive heat index values, again. Use care.
Areas with clouds and precipitation will be a bit cooler. Keep that in mind.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today. A few storms are likely tonight and tomorrow. Many areas may remain dry.
July/August thunderstorms can produce strong and gusty winds. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, as well.
A strong cold front is expected to push through the region tonight and Thursday. This will bring somewhat cooler air and much less humid air to the area by Thursday and Friday. The slightly cooler and less humid air will linger into Monday. A bit more humid again as we move through next week.
Keep in mind, Thursday will still be warm and humid. It will take the cooler/drier air a bit longer to push across the entire region. That means Friday through Monday will feel a lot better. Less heat. Less muggy.

Good morning, everyone.

Another day of hot muggy weather conditions. Then, slowly improving conditions are expected into the weekend. Keep in mind, tomorrow will be hot in some counties, as well.

It will be dry across most of the region today. A couple of thunderstorms could develop during the heat of the day. Same as yesterday.

As of 6 AM, a complex of storms was well to our north along the cold front. This area of thunderstorms will weaken as we move through the morning hours.

This is an MCS. A complex of summer thunderstorms. These have been occurring over the last few days to our north.

Areas outside of clouds and rain will experience highs in the low to mid-90s. Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are likely.

Use care if you must work outside. You know the drill. By now, we are used to the heat.

Here are the daily temperature forecasts.

Keep in mind, heat index values (what your body responds to) will be much higher than this today and for some tomorrow.

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

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Somewhat cooler and less humid air will arrive on Thursday, with even more significant changes by Friday.

The cold front will slowly move north to south. Some areas (south of the front) will remain quite warm on Thursday. Keep that in mind, as well.

Here is the front tomorrow

Here is the front by Friday (to our south).

The front will deliver highs in the eighties and heat index values below 90 degrees on Thursday (north) and across the rest of the area on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today through Thursday. Peak chances will be along a cold front tonight and Thursday.

Isolated storms are possible on Friday. Mainly near the MO/AR and KY/TN border. Closer to the front.

Many areas may miss out on the rain. This does not appear to be an event where everyone receives measurable rainfall. Keep that in mind, as well.

Some of the thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. A low risk of a few severe thunderstorm warnings. Same as recent days.

Let’s look at the rain probabilities.

Wednesday 7 am to Wednesday 7 pm

Wednesday 7 pm to Thursday 7 am

Friday 7 am to Friday 7 pm

Thursday 7 pm to Friday 7 am

Friday 7 am to Friday 7 pm

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this heat wave.

Use care in the heat. Remember the signs of heat illness.

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this extended period of heat.

Change your pets’ water bowls frequently, as well.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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