We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Are you looking for a full service insurance agency that writes homes, businesses, and vehicles in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Call Gary’s office at 270.442.8234 for rates and plans to protect what matters to you!
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday night – Quite a few clouds along the front. Becoming partly cloudy. Not as warm and less humid. A few thunderstorms along the cold front. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Evening winds from the north at 5-15 mph then becoming light northerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms possible as the cold front passes through the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% early and 20% late.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Thursday – Becoming mostly sunny and not as hot. Less humid. Much nicer weather than previous days. Some puffy cumulus clouds during the afternoon will be possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph. Possible gusts to 15 mph during the late morning and afternoon.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cooler. Nice weather for summer! Pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Light northerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not anticipating precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Not as hot. Not as humid. Decent weather for summer. Some cumulus clouds possible in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable as a high moves overhead.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Increasing clouds through the night. Nice weather. Nice camping weather. Low humidity.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Light mainly northerly winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting rain
What impact is expected? Not expecting rain
Saturday – Some clouds in the morning. Then becoming mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds possible in the afternoon. Pleasant. Less humid. Warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: Variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Some patchy clouds. Cooler. Nice weather for summer! Pleasant. There is a hint on some models of a shower or two Saturday night over northern and northwestern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Let’s go with 10% and leave it alone for now.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Light northerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Not so humid. Perhaps some afternoon increase in clouds. Small chance for a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon over southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s. Perhaps touching 90 in a few spots.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance (will monitor)
What impact is expected? None
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thursday and Friday will be much nicer than the past week. Below normal temperatures and lower humidity. Collective cheer?
2. A nice weekend is on tap for the region. Lower humidity with warm temperatures. Monitoring Sunday night/Monday for another cold front. Maybe some precipitation?
Check out this amazing satellite view of the beautiful area of low pressure over Canada. This is not something you typically see in July. See the curl north of North Dakota? That is the area of low pressure and is this baby wound up!
This is the system that will be responsible for our cold front Wednesday night. The cold front will usher in somewhat cooler temperatures and MUCH lower dew points (humidity levels)
Thank goodness for summer cold fronts.
Here is what that low looks like on the weather map. A 992 mb low over Canada. Quite impressive for July.
Remember, an area of low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. See that in Canada? That is the area of low pressure with the curl of clouds rotating around it (counter-clockwise).
Of course the big story the last few days has been the high dew points. That has meant very high heat index values. But, nothing out of the ordinary for our region. This typically happens a few times each year. Temperatures in the 90’s with very muggy conditions.
Temperatures have only been in the lower to middle 90’s over the past week. Normal highs are around 90 degrees. So, this is not unusual. It has been the high humidity that has been the problem. Heat index values above 110 covered much of the region on Tuesday and part of Wednesday, as well.
But, we are going to say BYE to those high dew points and high humidity levels. We are going to exchange it for lower humidity and nicer temperatures for Thursday into the weekend.
This is the current Wednesday dew point map. Compare it to the forecast dew point map for Thursday
Images are from weatherbell.com
And Thursday
Keep in mind that it will still be warm outside. Highs into the 80’s. This isn’t a September or October cold front! But, it will certainly feel a lot better outside with lower humidity levels.
Now, the next question is how long does this last. Models are all over the place with reinforcing shots of cooler air over the next two weeks. But, I am sure we will have some hot days mixed in. I consider hot being 90 or above.
Saturday’s weather map shows an area of high pressure over our region. That will keep things calm and pleasant. There is a small disturbance moving southeast on Saturday night. Maybe an increase in clouds with this disturbance. But, rain chances should be slim to none. I will keep an eye on it.
I am watching a front for Sunday night. Just not sure if it will produce precipitation this far south. I will keep an eye on it, as well.
There is a disturbance that dives south through northeast Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday afternoon. I suppose if this is stronger than anticipated that it could bring some showers or storms into southwest Illinois and eastern Missouri. Chances are small. But, again…I will keep an eye on this.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The outlook for next week
We will have to once again monitor small disturbances that move through the region over the coming week. As has been the case over the past few months, some of these disturbances can trigger showers and thunderstorms. Difficult to time and difficult to forecast.
I will be watching a storm system around next Wednesday into Friday. Timing will need to be worked out. An area of low pressure crossing the Central United States will carry a cold front with it. This front might dip into our region and help spark some showers and thunderstorms.
The GFS model shows it nicely on Wednesday night. See the green and dark green colors. Precipitation. Showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence, but worth monitoring. Not that we need any additional rain for awhile!
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Wednesday evening storms could produce some downpours. Otherwise, dry weather Thursday into Sunday. Watching Sunday night and Monday for some possible storms. Still low confidence on that happening.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for Wednesday evening. ZERO for Thursday and Friday (been a long time since we have had a zero)
Wednesday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms. Locally heavy rain is a good bet. But, not everyone will experience these storms. Same as the last few weeks.
Thursday: Not expecting severe weather.
Friday – Sunday: Not expecting severe weather.
No major concerns for Thursday or Friday! Hooray.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
