July 29th, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

NOTE: Temperatures and precipitation chances will vary greatly into Sunday. See the daily details further down in the blog.

48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thursday night into Sunday afternoon. The lightning risk should lessen Sunday night as the cold front pulls away from the region.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few thunderstorms could be intense Thursday evening into Sunday. The main concern would be gusty wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring locally heavy rain Thursday evening through Sunday. It is that time of the year where storms can produce gully washers. Peak heavy rain chances should be late Friday night into Saturday night. That does not mean locally heavy storms can’t occur before then.

Slow moving thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain in less than 30-minutes.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Today over all of the region. Friday over the southern half of the region. Heat index values of 100 to 110 are likely with pockets of 110 to 115.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

July 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms moving in from the north/northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region. Monitor the Mt Vernon, Illinois into southern Indiana area late in the afternoon.
Timing of the rain: After 4 pm (far north)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 95° to 100° / SE MO 95° to 100° / South IL 95° to 100° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 95° to 100° / West KY 95° to 100° / NW TN 95° to 100°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 110° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Use care. Thunderstorms may push into our northern counties during the late afternoon hours. Some storms could be intense if they do develop.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Areas around I64 should monitor thunderstorm chances late in the afternoon (far north).
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of locally intense showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be highest across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Elsewhere, monitor radars and updates. An area of storms will move in from central Illinois. How far south they push remains a question.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps none far south. Scattered far north.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:35 PM
Moonset: 11:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered locally heavy thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 86° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Numerous if a complex (MCS) of thunderstorms form.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 66° to 72° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 12:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 31, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° / SE MO 82° to 88° / South IL 80° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 86° / West KY 86° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 98° wide range north to south
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 64° to 70° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:01 AM
Moonset: 1:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter

August 1st, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% to 50% / SE MO ~ 40% to 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% to 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm (mainly south).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending/isolated.
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Our southern counties may still have wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 12:28 AM
Moonset: 2:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 2nd, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 76° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 12:57 AM
Moonset: 3:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 3rd, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 1:31 AM
Moonset: 4:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 4th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 2:11 AM
Moonset: 5:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

For those cutting hay, you will want to monitor Thursday night into Sunday for wet ground conditions.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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Today through August 3rd: Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening into Saturday night. A few may linger into Sunday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce pockets of wind damage. Locally heavy rain and lightning, as well.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. High heat index levels today and Friday. Use care if you must work outside.
2. Thunderstorm chances are increasing along an incoming cold front.
3. Cooler and less humid over the weekend into a portion of next week.

Weather advice:

The primary weather concern over the coming days will be the heat and dew points. Oppressive, at times. Use care.

I continue to monitor thunderstorm chances Thursday evening into Saturday night. There may be some storms Sunday over our southern counties. A few storms could produce enough rain to flood roadways, again. Gusty wind and lightning, as well.

Weather Discussion

Once again today, the heat dome remains in control of our local weather.

An area of high pressure remains centered over the Central United States. This area of high pressure is helping to push temperatures into the 90s over a wide swatch of the country. This is combining with dew points in the 70s and 80s. Those dew points are making it feel awfully muggy outside. Oppressive.

Remember, your body does not care what the air temperature is as much as it cares about the heat index. Your body responds to heat index values (same with wind chill values).

We don’t just tell you the heat index to make it sound hotter. We tell you the heat index so that you won’t overdo it when working outside.

Here is that heat dome. I showed you this Wednesday. It has not moved much. The great news is that it is on the move and will push away from our region over the next 24 to 48 hours.

That will leave us with northwest flow aloft. That will help bring cooler air into the region and increasing thunderstorm chances.

Heat index values today and Friday, however, will remain hot. At least across portions of the region. Area-wide today. Expect 100 to 110 degree heat index values.

Tomorrow, a cold front will have pushed into portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps northwest Kentucky. Temperatures north of the front will be somewhat cooler than the rest of the area.

That means today, Thursday, will likely be the peak of this heat event. Great news for those who are over it. I know it is uncomfortable for many.

The cold front will bring increasing rain chances.

Cold front arrival Thursday night/Friday into the weekend.

This front will help spark showers and thunderstorms as early as Thursday night and Friday. Additional rounds are possible Saturday and Sunday.

It will not rain all the time, but we may have to deal with a couple of thunderstorm complexes.

There will be no shortage of moisture in the entire atmosphere. A deep warm layer will mean locally torrential rain with one to two inches of rain possible in 15 to 30 minutes. That could be enough rain to flood some roadways. Common problems could have issues.

If a few thunderstorms train over the same area then someone could easily pick up three to five inches of rain. This has happened during the last few events in our region. Pockets of extreme rainfall. This could be another one of those type of events. Of course, many areas won’t receive anything near those totals.

As a matter of fact, it is possible some areas receive almost no rain. It is summer. That is typical for the summer months. Feast or famine weather is what I usually call it.

PWAT values will pool along and ahead of the cold front. These higher PWAT values will help in the development of locally heavy rain and thunderstorms.

PWAT animation.

See the purple colors along the cold front? Those are higher moisture levels. This only goes out to Saturday. Additional high PWAT values are possible Saturday and Sunday. The front exits the region Sunday PM. Drier behind the front.

You can see this morning’s MCS/thunderstorm complex well to our north. This is part of the system moving our way. It will push these clouds southward today.

We will start to see high clouds advance into our northern counties.

The outflow boundary (what is left from the storms) will likely re-ignite a few storms late this afternoon over northern portions of southern Illinois into southern Indiana. How far south those push will need to be monitored.

Model guidance is of little use. We will have to monitor trends on radar and satellite.

I did post the future-cast radars. Take them with a grain of sand. They are not handling the current precipitation all that well and this could influence the next couple of days.

Peak storms chances should be tonight and then again Saturday/Saturday night.

You are looking at a satellite image. This shows clouds. The red colors are very high cloud tops. Cold cloud tops. That means thunderstorm cloud tops. Cumulonimbus clouds. The white specks are lightning strikes.

Cooler air is on the way.

See how the jet-stream dips next week? That is a large trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States. That means cooler temperatures and less muggy air. We will take that. I know many of you do not like the heat.

How much cooler will it be?

It appears that 80s are a lock Monday through Wednesday. Some models (like this one) event shows highs in the 70s. We shall see if we can achieve those amazing numbers. Either way, less humid/muggy and cooler temperatures.

A nice break mid-summer.

Monday high temperatures

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday high temperatures

HEAT SAFETY

Use care if you must work outside. Know the symptoms of heat stroke.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.