July 29, 2025: Hot and muggy. A cold front is on the way.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

July 29th through August 4th

Current risk: UNLIKELY.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment: The tornado risk is very low. A few severe storms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. At this time, we are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible through Thursday. A few storms could linger into Friday (esp south). I will monitor Sunday and Monday.

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.

A cold front will bring an increased risk of strong thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce high wind gusts. Monitor updates.

The SPC continues to shift this around with each update. The concern is a bit higher in the dark green zone. They did shift that northward in the latest update. They could shift it again.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Slow-moving summer storms can produce torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. This will be a concern through Thursday. Peak concerns will be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Temperatures are expected to be in the nineties through at least Wednesday. Perhaps on Thursday in some locations. Thursday’s temperatures will depend on just how fast the cold front passes through the region.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values of 108 to 116 degrees are expected to be in the forecast through this afternoon. Heat index values on Wednesday will likely range from 105 to 110 degrees.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? POSSIBLE. That is possible today in a few locations. Use care during the peak heating hours.

Here is a graphic that shows you high temperatures and heat index values. Find the city nearest to you.

Double-click on this image to enlarge.

Warnings and advisories.

Double-click on this image to enlarge.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Forecast discussion.

Extreme heat index values are likely today and tomorrow. Peak numbers will be today.
Areas with clouds and precipitation will be a bit cooler. Keep that in mind.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today. Increasing storm chances late Wednesday into Thursday along a cold front.
July thunderstorms can produce strong and gusty winds. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, as well.
A strong cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring somewhat cooler air and much less humid air to the area by Thursday and Friday. This cooler and less humid air will linger into early next week.
Keep in mind, Thursday will still be warm and humid. It will take the cooler/drier air a bit longer to push across the entire region. That means Friday through Monday will feel a lot better. Less heat. Less muggy.

Good morning, everyone.

Another day of hot muggy weather conditions.

Check out yesterday’s heat index values.

We tell you the heat index because that is what your body responds to. The heat index is more important than the actual air temperature.

We don’t tell you the heat index to make it seem hotter (as someone on Facebook said).

It will be dry across most of the region today. A couple of thunderstorms could develop during the heat of the day. Same as yesterday.

Areas outside of clouds and rain will experience highs in the mid-90s. Heat index values of 108 to 116 degrees are likely.

Use care if you must work outside. Coaches and band directors should consider the weather forecast when scheduling practice.

Here are the daily temperature forecasts.

Keep in mind, heat index values (what your body responds to) will be much higher than this today and tomorrow.

Tomorrow

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

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Somewhat cooler and less humid air will arrive on Thursday, with even more significant changes by Friday. The cold front will slowly move north to south. Some areas (south of the front) will remain quite warm on Thursday. Keep that in mind, as well.The front will deliver highs in the eighties and heat index values below 90 degrees on Thursday (north) and across the entire area on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today through Thursday. Peak chances will be along a cold front on Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and Thursday.

Some of the thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. A low risk of a few severe thunderstorm warnings.

Let’s look at the rain probabilities.

Wednesday 7 am to Wednesday 7 pm

Wednesday 7 pm to Thursday 7 am

Friday 7 am to Friday 7 pm

Thursday 7 pm to Friday 7 am

Friday 7 am to Friday 7 pm

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this heat wave.

Use care in the heat. Remember the signs of heat illness.

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this extended period of heat.

Change your pets’ water bowls frequently, as well.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3k model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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