July 29, 2024: Hot and stormy.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today through at least Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Some of the thunderstorms this week could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. There is a low level tornado risk, as well.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? YES. MCS’s are likely to impact the region during the upcoming week. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They can produce heavy rain. Flooding and flash flooding will be possible. Monitor updates over the coming days.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values this week will likely top 100 degrees.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? YES. Some locations will exceed 110 degrees during the upcoming week.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday through Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 4. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Scattered showers and storms are expected today mainly east of the Mississippi River. Isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday mainly east of the Mississippi River. Relative humidity values will only drop into the 50 to 65 percent range through the early part of the work week. Good dispersion is expected early this week. Hot temperatures arrive this week with highs in the 90s expected.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances over our northern and eastern counties vs south southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 95°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 95°
Winds will be from this direction: S SW at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rainfall. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rainfall. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:28 AM
Moonset: 3:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas with clouds and precipitation will be cooler than the high temperatures shown below.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
Southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 95°
Southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: S SW at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 102° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rainfall. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rainfall. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:08 AM
Moonset: 4:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas with clouds and precipitation will be cooler than the high temperatures shown below.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
Southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: S SW at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 104° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rainfall. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rainfall. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:53 AM
Moonset: 5:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Hot weather returns to the region. High heat index values outside of clouds and storms.
2. A daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances north and east vs south and west.
3. Some storms could be severe weather damaging wind and hail.
4. Locally heavy rain possible this week.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

A somewhat complicated forecast. Confidence in the heat is high. Confidence in the placement and intensity of thunderstorm clusters is low.

There are two weather concerns. The heat and thunderstorm clusters.

First off, there is a heat advisory in effect. Double click graphics to enlarge them.

Additional counties may need to be added to this.

Temperatures this week will be in the 90s with heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees.

Remember, heat index is what the body responds to. Same as wind chill values. High index values will impact your body.

A weak cold front will arrive on Friday. That could help lower temperatures a bit Friday into Sunday, but we will need to watch it closely. The front could stall.

Use care in the heat. Don’t forget our outdoor friends. The heat bothers them, as well. Be sure and change the water bowls.

The other concern will be thunderstorm clusters. These are called MCS’s. MCS’s are more difficult to forecast than snowstorms. We all know how tricky snowstorms are.

Often times, models do not handle thunderstorm clusters all that well. At times, models can show a line of storms moving across the region. The next run of the model shows nothing at all.

MCS’s (thunderstorm clusters) are usually not forecast well until 12 to 18 hours before they form.

That leaves some questions on how this week’s weather will unfold.

We are in a risk of severe weather today and tomorrow. The risk shifts northeast on Wednesday. See additional graphics farther down in the weather blog.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook.

The severe weather concerns will be higher across southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. The risk lessens as you travel towards southeast Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel.

Northern portions of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky are of most concern.

Thunderstorms that do form in this hot and muggy air-mass will carry the risk of 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, nickel size hail, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. There is a small risk of short-lived tornadoes with any bowing line segments.

Once again, rain totals will have a significant range. Anywhere from no rain at all to well over five inches. Flash flooding will be a concern where slow moving storms travel or at locations that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Rainfall rates of one to three inches per thirty minutes will be possible.

We are in a risk of excessive rainfall. The WPC has outlined the area for a level one and two risk of flash flooding.

If you have outdoor plans then monitor updated forecasts. If storm clouds threaten, then check your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Peak thunderstorm chances will be today into tomorrow night.

We have a lower risk of thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

A few storms are possible along that weak cold front Thursday into the weekend. Whether we have severe weather Thursday into the weekend will need to be monitored.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app this week for updates.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.