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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid/muggy. Scattered evening heavy thunderstorms. Isolated high winds with the heaviest storms. Nickel size hail, as well. Very heavy rain of 1-3″ per hour in spots.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly and southwesterly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No, but a few strong storms will be possible. Isolated severe.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% at any given spot. There will be storms, but many will remain dry. Best rain and storm chances will be southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Wednesday – Heat advisories will be in effect again on Wednesday. Use care, as always. Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. A chance for thunderstorms along an incoming cold front from the north.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s with heat index values hotter. Typical summer weather before the front moves through.
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds will become west/northwest as the day wears on and increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon with some gusts to 20 mph possible as the cold front moves through the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars as we may have some storms along a cold front.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time. Monitoring the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Wednesday night – Quite a few clouds along the front. Becoming partly cloudy. Not as warm and less humid. A slight chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Evening winds from the north at 5-15 mph then becoming light northerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms possible as the cold front passes through the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early and 20% late.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Thursday – Becoming mostly sunny and not as hot. Less humid. Much nicer weather than previous days. Some puffy cumulus clouds during the afternoon will be possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph. Possible gusts to 15 mph during the late morning and afternoon.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cooler. Nice weather for summer! Pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Light northerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not anticipating precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Not as hot. Not as humid. Decent weather for summer. Some cumulus clouds possible in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable as a high moves overhead.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
What impact is expected? None
Saturday and Sunday should be dry. A mix of sun and clouds. A bit warmer perhaps. Highs into the 80’s and maybe a few 90’s (low confidence on the 90’s). Humidity levels will remain low. Should be a nice weekend. Heat index values will not be an issue over the weekend.
I am watching a front push into the region Sunday night. Perhaps a few showers with the front. Low confidence right now in that part of the forecast.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. One more warm/hot day to go. Then a cold front sweeps through the region!
2. Less humidity by Wednesday night into the weekend. Should feel nicer outside. Still a lot of moisture in the ground. We will have to see how that plays out in the mix.
Tuesday evening will bring some very heavy storms to the region. Mostly southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Some places could pick up a quick 1-3″ of rain with spots of 3-5″ likely. Flash flooding in isolated spots. Use care and avoid flooded roadways.
Are you tired of the warm weather? Highs in the 90’s with heat index values above 100 aren’t all that pleasant. Of course if you have lived in this region you will know this is normal summer weather. Nothing special about it. Certainly nothing extreme about these temperatures. Yes, heat index values have been high (but that is also not unusual).
Check out Tuesday afternoon’s apparent temperatures (heat index numbers). Yuck.
Seems like this happens once or twice each year. High dew points combined with temperatures in the 90’s. Are you missing winter yet?
What has been special is the amazing rainfall totals over the past month. But, you likely already know this. This has placed a lot of moisture in the ground. This has resulted in high dew points (at least part of the reason). Temperatures in the 90’s combined with high dew points equal heat index values over 100 degrees. Ick weather is what I call it! The temperatures alone have not been all that hot. For example, Paducah has yet to hit 95 degrees (unless they hit it on Tuesday after I write this update) during the Month of July. That is quite amazing! Wouldn’t you say?
We have not hit 100 all summer. I would say we are doing fairly well in the temperature department. If we could only get rid of some of this humidity.
Oh, but wait! We will see better humidity levels by Wednesday night into the weekend. Dew points will drop behind a strong cold front that will sweep through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Refreshing overnight lows in the 60’s will be a nice relief from recent muggy 70’s. What will be extra nice are the lower dew points.
I am monitoring high temperature forecasts for Saturday and Sunday. Data is a bit mixed on this subject. Some data sets are predicting 90’s. The wet ground conditions might help shave a few degrees off the daytime highs. I am going with 80’s. For now, at least.
Another weak cold front will drop into the region Sunday night or Monday. Right now it appears precipitation chances will be low. If there were to be some showers it would probably be on Sunday night.
Expect dry conditions Thursday into Sunday.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Looking ahead to next week
The August forecast was posted over the last few days. If you missed it then check previous updates.
I will be watching the northwest flow next week. That means that the jet stream is diving down from the northwest. That has been the case most of this summer. A mix of above and below normal days and above normal precipitation.
We will enter August with mostly below normal temperatures over the next 7-10 days. That would be Thursday onward. I am sure there will be some above normal temperature days mixed in. There usually are. But, overall we should average below normal. Let’s see how it goes.
The northwest flow will likely mean additional thunderstorm chances. I will be watching next Wednesday through Friday for a disturbance moving in from the north. Long way out and still plenty of time for adjustments.
The wright-weather.com GFS maps show the precipitation in pink and blue. This is for next Thursday and Friday (August 6th and 7th)
And Friday
Check out these temperatures on the GFS for down the road a bit. Will this happen? Well, we can dream, can’t we 🙂
September is forecast to bring above normal temperatures and perhaps below normal precipitation. Finally!
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Any storms that occur could produce locally heavy downpours of 0.50″-1.00″ in a very short amount of time. Typical summer storms. Hit and miss.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ONE/TWO for Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
Tuesday: Not expecting severe weather. A few scattered storms.
Wednesday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Thursday: Not expecting severe weather.
Friday – Sunday: Not expecting severe weather.
Warm and humid conditions are the main concern for Wednesday. Small thunderstorm chances.
Heat index values of 100+ are likely on Wednesday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
