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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday through Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Daily chances.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Lower end risk. A few reports of high winds will be possible with thunderstorms over the coming week. Widespread severe weather is currently not forecast. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding may occur.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Unlikely. Most likely no. Clouds and rain chances should help keep temperatures lower.
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July 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and some sun. Warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: North, west, and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 2:44 PM
Moonset: 12:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 3:53 PM
Moonset: 1:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South, southwest, and southeast. Variable direction at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 5:00 PM
Moonset: 2:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 6:03 PM
Moonset: 2:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° SE MO 76° to 82° South IL 76° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 82° West KY 76° to 82° NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 6:59 PM
Moonset: 3:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 89° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 7:47 PM
Moonset: 4:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset: 5:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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What is the UV index?
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- Locally heavy rain is the main concern.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 2nd: Thunderstorms are likely this week. The primary concern will be heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Some thunderstorms could produce isolated wind damage, as well. Lightning, of course.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated July 28, 2020
The main concern will be slow moving thunderstorms over the coming week. Flash flooding is the concer. Avoid flooded roadways.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Showers and thunderstorms chances.
- Warm, but not as hot as recent weeks.
- Flash flooding is a concern over the coming days into the weekend.
- Avoid flooded roadways.
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A rather active weather pattern over the coming six days.
It will be warm through the period with highs mostly in the 80s. This is lower than recent weeks. That is the good news.
Upper level disturbances will push across the region over the coming days. Each will produce rounds of showers and heavy thunderstorms.
The severe weather risk is rather limited. I can’t rule out isolated wind damage. Same as recent weeks.
The primary concern is going to be locally heavy rain.
Thunderstorms that train over the same area will produce one to two inches of rain in less than an hour. In some cases less than one-half hour.
At this time, it appears the peak time-frame for heavy rain will be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.
The front will sag through the area today. Much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois may remain rain-free today and tonight.
Extreme southern portions and then Kentucky/Tennessee will have the better chance of scattered thunderstorms.
Tonight into Wednesday morning will deliver a drier time-period area-wide.
A stronger system then arrives Wednesday afternoon and night. This will be the trigger for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy.
PWAT values will be very high. Remember, PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. High numbers equal heavy rain totals.
Check out this BIG numbers. PWAT values. The long-duration is what the concern is. Repeated waves of high PWAT values equal heavy rain potential.
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Another wave of low pressure arrives Friday and Saturday. This will again by a time-period when thunderstorm coverage will increase. Some with heavy rain.
When all is said and done, much of the area will receive one to three inches of rain. That would be between yesterday and this coming Sunday.
Pockets of three to six inches of rain are likely. That would be the exception vs the general rule. I can’t rule out higher totals in very isolated spots.
Needless to say, you will want to avoid flooded roadways. Monitor radars. I will update as necessary.
A flash flood watch may have to be issued once the NWS fine-tunes the location of the heaviest rain totals.
Let’s take a look at the Weather Prediction Center’s excessive rainfall outlook. I look at this when considering flash flooding.
Today
Tomorrow
Wednesday
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Seven day rain totals. We will see how it goes.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers July 28th through August 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers August 4th through August 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers August 11th through August 24th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
Click on the images to enlarge them
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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