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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday – Heat advisories are in effect today. Quite a bit of sun and summer heat. Use care with the high heat index values. Humid/muggy. Scattered heavy thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Heat index values will be warmer (above 100)
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps calm during the morning hours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case a storm pops up.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% during the morning and then 30% during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid/muggy. A slight chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly and southwesterly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for thunderstorms along an incoming cold front from the north.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s with heat index values hotter. Typical summer weather before the front moves through.
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds will become west/northwest as the day wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars as we may have some storms along a cold front.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time. Monitoring the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. Not as warm and less humid. A slight chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light northerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms possible as the cold front passes through the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early and 20% late.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and not as hot. Less humid. Much nicer weather than previous days. Some puffy cumulus clouds during the afternoon will be possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
What impact is expected? None
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A few thunderstorm chances, but warm weather will be the main story for a few days.
2. Not as hot and less humid by the end of the week.
I know it is hot and humid. The media and others make it seem even hotter with their constant heat index numbers. Remember when we just knew it was in the 90’s? We used to call that summer! Now it has to be dramatic and scary. We live in the Ohio Valley. Summer typically means temperatures in the 90’s with heat index values above 100.
Did you know many spots have yet to even reach 95 degrees during the past month? Not too bad for our region. Nobody has hit 100 degrees. It has not been a bad summer. What has been bad is the high rainfall totals. One could say that has been a bit on the extreme side! But, that was the July forecast.
Relief is on the way. But, first we have to get through Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs will reach into the upper 80’s to lower/mid 90’s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday afternoon and night. This front will mark a MUCH nicer air-mass.
Expect dew points to drop considerably behind the Wednesday cold front. Lower dew points will mean that it will not feel nearly as muggy or humid. I think you will enjoy the Wednesday night into the weekend forecast.
Scattered storms will be possible Monday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Storms that form could produce locally heavy rain. This has been the case for the last two months. No change on that topic. Lot of moisture in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to work with. We witnessed that again on Sunday night and early Monday morning. Parts of the region picked up 1-3″ of rain from slow moving thunderstorms.
The cold front on Wednesday will mark an end to the thunderstorm chances, at least temporarily.
I will keep an eye on a possible secondary cold front to move in from the north behind the first one. If that were to happen then perhaps a few showers along it, as well.
August is shaping up to be rather nice. At least the start of August. See yesterday’s post for the August outlook.
Check out this 16 day high and low temperature chart for Paducah. Looking decent for the middle of summer. Nothing extreme on this map. Image is from weatherbell.com
And the anomalies map. Look at all of those days with below normal temperatures that will be headed our way!
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Nicer weather is on the way!
The big story will be below normal temperatures as we push into the middle and end of this week. These below normal temperatures might last well into August. I am sure we will have some back and forth from time to time. But, overall it does not look too bad.
Some question as to high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Dew points will be lower (quite a bit lower than recent days). But, will temperatures stay in the 80’s or reach the lower 90’s? This will need to be monitored. I was thinking mostly 80’s. Some data came into today warmer. Either way, lower humidity will at least make it feel less oppressive.
Some of the models are even spitting out 40’s as we push into the day 8-14 period. Long way off. We shall see if that happens. I noted them over the Missouri Valley into parts of Illinois. Either way, it does look like some nice weather is on tap for our region. Especially in the temperature department.
Keep in mind that cooler than normal weather likely means northwest flow. Northwest flow means periodic precipitation chances. Same as the last couple of months. And, some of the precipitation could again be on the heavy side. But, for now…let’s just enjoy the nicer weather heading our way.
Check out the latest CFS update from weatherbell.com
Temperature anomaly for the first 14 days of August. WELL below normal is the forecast. This does not mean there won’t be some hot days. It just means that once the first 14 days of August are average together, they should produce below normal numbers. Once again it appears northwest flow might be the predominant weather pattern. That could also mean above normal rainfall.
Blue represents below normal temperatures. Green represents well below normal temperatures.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Small chances for thunderstorms on Monday night into Tuesday night. As always, this time of the year, any storms that pop up could produce pockets of heavy rain. Overall the storms are expected to be isolated through Tuesday night.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ONE/TWO for Monday night and Tuesday
Monday night: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Tuesday: Not expecting severe weather. A few scattered storms.
Wednesday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Thursday: Not expecting severe weather.
Warm and humid conditions are the main concern for Tuesday. Small thunderstorm chances.
Heat index values of 100+ are likely on Tuesday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
