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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 28, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening showers and isolated storms over southeast Illinois and parts of western Kentucky will come to an end. Partly cloudy and then clearing. Turning cooler and less humid. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Storms should be ending.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should have come to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few periodic clouds. Cooler. Less muggy. Pleasant. Wonderful day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Less humid. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 30, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Nice. Not as humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL ~ 76 to 84 KY ~ 76 to 84 TN ~ 76 to 84
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 31, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear the first half of the night. Some increase in clouds late tonight. Dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 1, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. A slight chance for a thunderstorm during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: Variable winds becoming southerly at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Small risk for wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible, mainly late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? For most areas, none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 2, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars for some storms.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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August 3, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon..
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph. Gusty winds, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars. Timing of precipitation is in question.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms developing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: South winds at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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August 4, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: Southwest becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous during the morning. Scattered during the afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cooler. Less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 5, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: North winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Starry night. Cool. Less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 6, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Thursday night: Thunderstorms are likely on Thursday night. They may linger into Friday, but data has been trending drier for Friday. Torrential rain is possible with an extremely moist atmosphere. Storms will also produce frequent lightning and strong winds. Small risk for damaging winds.
Saturday through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday night
A cold front is moving into the region and will pass through the region overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the warm and moist atmosphere. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain. There is a lot of moisture in the air. If thunderstorms form, they would tap into the moisture.
There is a small risk for high winds with the most intense storms. The overall severe weather risk remains low.
Showers and thunderstorms should end from north to south later tonight into the morning hours.
Friday into the weekend
The great news is that cooler and drier air is on the way for Friday into the weekend. A great weekend for camping, farming, or gardening. You can expect highs in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s with lower humidity and dew point levels. It will actually feel great outside.
Overnight lows on Friday and Saturday will dip into the 60’s. I can’t rule out some upper 50’s. Either way, much nicer than recent weeks.
Thursday highs
Friday highs
Saturday highs
Sunday highs
Rain chances on Friday will diminish to near zero by late morning. I can’t rule out a few remaining storms near the Missouri and Arkansas border and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Storms should, however, be coming to an end.
Dry weather Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Check out the temperature departure maps for Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. How about that! Below normal, for once.
Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Next week looks dry, as well. Some of the guidance hints of low end rain chances by mid-week, but confidence is not high enough to include them in the forecast. Monitor updates.
Temperatures will average near normal to below normal for much of next week. That does not mean it won’t be warm. Normal highs are around 90 degrees. Keep that in mind.
Some guidance wants to warm us up on Wednesday and Thursday to near 90 degrees. This will need to be monitored. Other data is cooler. Either way, extreme numbers are not anticipated.
The pattern may become more active around August 5th through 10th. Long way off.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
