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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 26, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. An increasing chances for thunderstorms moving in from the northwest and north. Some storms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Greater risk over the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois. The line would then move southward, but may weaken as it moves further and further south.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty winds near storms. Heavy downpours possible. Dime size hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out damaging winds over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous, especially late across the northern half of the region. Lesser chances the further and further south you travel.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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July 27, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be intense. There is a chance, if clouds linger, that thunderstorms won’t form or won’t be as heavy as anticipated. Keep this in mind. Clouds could knock down our chances for severe weather or heavy rain. Not unusual. If storms do form, they will be heavy. Very high PWAT values forecasted for Thursday and Thursday night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Low end flash flood risk. A few reports of damaging winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense with high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms likely. There is a chance, if clouds linger on Thursday, that thunderstorms won’t form or won’t be as heavy as anticipated. Keep this in mind. Clouds could knock down our chances for severe weather or heavy rain. Not unusual. If storms do form, they will be heavy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Low end flash flood risk. A few reports of damaging winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some storms are likely.
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July 28, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Most likely dry. Not as muggy. A few remaining storms possible over our southern counties near the Missouri/Arkansas line and the Kentucky/Tennessee line. I believe precipitation will be winding down on Friday morning.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Winds becoming north and northeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If the front moves far enough south, then no impacts. Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Lower confidence on Friday’s forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation coming to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Turning cooler and less humid. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Storms should be ending.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should have come to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Less humid. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 30, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Nice. Not as humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 31, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 1, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: Northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 2, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Above normal temperatures may return by next Saturday/Sunday/Monday. Low confidence. Long range outlook.
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday night: There is a chance greater coverage on Wednesday night, especially late. A cold front will slowly push into the region from the north. A few storms could be strong. The best chance for stronger storms will be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Monitor updates.
Small risk for flash flooding late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Again, northern counties.
Thursday through Thursday night: Thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday night. They may linger into Friday, but data has been trending drier for Friday. Some of the storms could become severe. Torrential rain is possible with an extremely moist atmosphere. Storms will also produce frequent lightning and strong winds. Monitor updates concerning the potential for severe weather and heavy rain.
This may be an all or nothing event. If the atmosphere does not destabilize then storms may not form.
Saturday through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
The main focus of this update will be the next 36 hours.
A cold front (much welcomed) is moving into the region from the north. This front will first impact our northern counties on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
A band of heavy thunderstorms is forecast to form over Iowa and central Illinois this evening (Wednesday evening) and push southward overnight.
There remain some questions as to how far south the cold front will push.
The band of storms will be producing very heavy rain. PWAT (a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere) values are off the charts tonight into Thursday night. That means flash flooding is a concern for areas to our north tonight.
The flash flood risk may dip into our far northern counties, but confidence is not all that great. Keep this in mind.
The line of storms should be weakening as it moves southward, but how much. That is still a question.
I am forecasting the band of storms to move into our northern counties after 2 am. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight will be along a line from Farmington, Missouri, eastward towards Carbondale/Marion, and then eastward towards Evansville, Indiana.
Along and north of that line stands the best chance for organized thunderstorms late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Some of the storms will produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. There is a risk for a few reports of damaging winds.
The line will weaken during the morning hours as it pushes further south. It is possible that most of the line dissipates by early or mid-morning.
A new area of storms is forecast to develop along the cold front or the outflow boundary of the dying storms. An outflow boundary is a boundary left over from storms that died off earlier in the day.
Let’s look at future-cast radar. This is just one models opinion. This is what the NAM believes radar will look like over the next 36 hours.
Keep in mind, models do not handle convection all that well. This will not be exact.
The main concern, for our local region, will be what happens on Thursday afternoon and night. This is when peak instability should occur.
Again, some areas may miss out.
This could be an all or nothing event for some. If the atmosphere does not become unstable on Thursday afternoon, then storms may not form. Keep this in mind.
7 AM Thursday future-cast radar
Click images to enlarge
10 AM Thursday future-cast radar
1 PM Thursday future-cast radar
4 PM Thursday future-cast radar
7 PM Thursday future-cast radar
PM Thursday future-cast radar
PWAT values are significant. Readings of 2.4 to 2.8 (or more) are being spit out by the models. These are extreme numbers. It is unusual to have numbers this high. It comes down to whether storms form. If storms form they will be heavy.
Learn more about PWAT values ~ click here
10 AM PWAT values. Very high numbers.
1 PM Thursday PWAT values
4 PM PWAT values
Thursday 7 PM PWAT
Slow moving storms will likely tap into this moisture. If storms merge or train over the same areas then two to three inches (or more) of rain will occur. There is a low end risk for some reports of flash flooding.
Some of the models are showing three to five inches of rain in localized areas. Will this happen? It is a possibility.
By the same token, there is a chance some of you receive no measurable rain from this system. Typical for the summer months.
Thunderstorms on Thursday could also produce damaging winds and a few reports of hail. The overall severe weather risk is small, but definitely no zero. Some reports of damaging winds is expected.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our northern counties in a level 1 out of 5 risk for Wednesday night and then a level 2 out of 5 risk for Thursday and Thursday night.
Here are the SPC graphics
Tonight (WED)
THU and THU night
They downgraded this in the last outlook to marginal. They may upgrade it again. They do that quite often. Ignores the colors and concentrate on the forecast.
A few storms could produce damaging winds.
Monitor any watches and warnings.
The WPC has also placed us in a flash flood risk
Wednesday/Wednesday night
Thursday and Thursday night
There is a chance that morning cloud cover and dying thunderstorms could keep the atmosphere more stable than anticipated. If this happens then the severe weather risk is reduced. I won’t know this until Thursday morning.
The great news is that cooler and drier air is on the way for Friday into the weekend. A great weekend for camping, farming, or gardening. You can expect highs in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s with lower humidity and dew point levels. It will actually feel great outside.
Overnight lows on Friday and Saturday will dip into the 60’s. I can’t rule out some upper 50’s. Either way, much nicer than recent weeks.
Thursday highs
Friday highs
Saturday highs
Sunday highs
Rain chances on Friday will diminish to near zero by late morning. I can’t rule out a few remaining storms near the Missouri and Arkansas border and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Storms should, however, be coming to an end.
Dry weather Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Check out the temperature departure maps for Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. How about that! Below normal, for once.
Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Normal lows for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Next week looks dry, as well. Some of the guidance hints of low end rain chances by mid-week, but confidence is not high enough to include them in the forecast.
Temperatures will average near normal to below normal for much of next week.
Some guidance wants to warm us up on Wednesday and Thursday to near 90 degrees. This will need to be monitored. Other data is cooler. Either way, extreme numbers are not anticipated.
The pattern may become more active around August 5th through 10th. Long way off.
Hopefully those who need rain will receive rain today through Friday morning. I know some of you need it.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
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- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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